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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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The first thread was deleted by the original starter.  I believe there still needs to be a thread for this time frame.  The pattern looks good and the euro had small amounts of snow on January 3rd but in my opinion it was really close to a big dog.  I'm not sure if I can post my maps but if someone has access to the americanwx models, look at the 500mb map around hr 150 and post if you want.  Let the talks begin and hopefully we can reel in a storm.  Happy reading!

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So, both the Euro and Euro Ensemble Mean look pretty good for the late blooming system on Jan 3. CMC has it as well. It's too far off the coast on the GFS and it looks like the UKMet would be a miss as well.  Comparing the models, the ones that have the storm (Euro, CMC) have a taller western ridge.  The unicorn hunt continues

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The GEFS says nada- either New Years eve or 3-4. Not buying it right now, as stated above, the 27-29th threat disappeared, as did the NYE "storm". As we get closer the models are getting rid of these threats, hard to get a decent storm when we are basically in a WNW upper flow. Prolonged cold, yes- much if any snow, not seeing it at present.

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6 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What...the low forms down in the Bahama's.  That's got to be a first...a piece of energy diving over a PNA ridge in SW Canada spawns a low down in the Bahama's and rides up the east coast.  And I thought the new years threat was going to be tough.

eps_mslp_anom_noram_156.png

there is a first time for everything

 

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL...the Navgem forms it over the keys and actually get's it close but the ridge in the west is sliding east so it gets shunted OTS.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

at least it is a slightly better look

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1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. 

It's definitely an odd setup with 3 pieces of energy needed to pull this off and the placement of the ridge axes.  But, the past few runs of the EPS has atleast trended in the right direction, but we have typically lost these "potential" events once we hit approached day 5 and that would be today/tomorrow.   This threat is by far the most complicated of the 3 we will end up tracking...but could be the largest threat too.

sVCXIoU.gif

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6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. 

 

I agree. Models are starting to line up. However, the norm over the last few weeks have been 3+ days does not equal anything on the models. Need to get something under the 3 day mark, IMO.  I guess someone needs to make a snow cake or start the old fashion snow dance. I know folks back in early December got some good Jeb walks in. We need a broad-wide Jeb walk out of this pattern!

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

It's definitely an odd setup with 3 pieces of energy needed to pull this off and the placement of the ridge axes.  But, the past few runs of the EPS has atleast trended in the right direction, but we have typically lost these "potential" events once we hit approached day 5 and that would be today/tomorrow.   This threat is by far the most complicated of the 3 we will end up tracking...but could be the largest threat too.

sVCXIoU.gif

Jan. 2nd is 5 days from now so it is money time for the runs. Do you think they are underperforming with the snowfall amounts on the EPS?

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Jan. 2nd is 5 days from now so it is money time for the runs. Do you think they are underperforming with the snowfall amounts on the EPS?

Edit:  just noticed, where is the thread for the Monday miss?

The control run is 6-8" over your area.  Odds are this probably misses wide right as that has been the theme with tomorrows threat and with Mondays threat.  But, when you are talking pieces of energy phasing together, that's what you want.

I wonder what would happen if the southern piece of energy was a little slower....it would probably take us out of it and jackpots 85 and points west.  Maybe 8 of the 20+ members that had snow showed that.  Which I guess is good percentage of the ones that hit (8 out of 24) but overall (8 of 51), seems low right now.

ecmwf_vort_500_conus_150.png

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Still snipe hunting, it looks like.  But at least, if the OPs are to be believed (I haven’t checked the ensembles yet), we will get to continue hunting for at least the next 10-15 days.

Last winter I could find where Dec/Jan was BN and we didn't have snow was 2000/2001.  Which was the winter of our big bust and a great analog for this winter.  LOL...last few years we had plenty of rainy coastals and no cold and now it's the opposite.

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