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Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco


SnowGolfBro

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Hrrr is quite a bit farther south than the nam 3k with its precip field. Curious to see if the nam bros come in with higher qpf. Sref doesn't seem to support the hrrr. 

 

Where is the actual vort..or lack of a vort...pass?  SW VA?  It’s hard to see it..that seems like a good spot

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel weirdly optimistic about this. Just think the dynamics and fluff factor will help us out. Probably I’m just weenieing out.

Being in Central MD certainly a better spot for the little we get tomorrow versus being In Fredericksburg. But I’ll be optimistic too and hope for a dusting. 

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23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Good luck.  At least it's the first model that I can remember seeing this season that didn't put us in the precip minimum.  I'm sure it will end up wrong.

I think any precip will get sucked up as usual.  And I will be counting flakes again. I’ve no faith in what the models are spitting out.  Been there done that.  

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25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Where is the actual vort..or lack of a vort...pass?  SW VA?  It’s hard to see it..that seems like a good spot

Low is actually north of us. As other have mentioned, it's not a typical clipper system where it goes right over us or just to the south of us for best snows. 

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8 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Low is actually north of us. As other have mentioned, it's not a typical clipper system where it goes right over us or just to the south of us for best snows. 

I don't think that's true.  There is a low north but I think this bit of energy that broke off from the PAcNW system is passing south of us or we wouldn't get a thing.  I could be wrong of course.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. 

Agreed, pending the Hrrr not playing it’s usual tricks, upstream looks solid, even some growing returns out in the shield. Had a chance to check any reports in IA/elsewhere? 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. 

Yeah, seems like Nam's and HRRR all want to bring in an initial "blob" and and then another smaller "blob" before it gets it out of here. 

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