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Pre New Years Clipper/Re-developer


Baroclinic Zone

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Ocean enhancement will really do wonders for me out here on the Outer Cape.  Also the 12z NAM is maintaining strength or maybe strengthening the precip shield associated with our clipper over Chicago this time tomorrow morning.  Something to watch on radar imagery as the day goes forward tomorrow.  NAM and GFS consensus would bring a general 5-10" of snow for me considering lesser ratios.

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15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

GFS went from nada to basically the snowiest in less than 24hrs.  #mosttrustedmodel 

It's trusted when it's the most snowy.

That being said, GEFS and NAM didn't look too bad either.  EURO now playing Dr. No.  I think we can still trend this to at least a 1-3" event S of the Pike in all of SNE and for SE MA / E MA.  

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

It's trusted when it's the most snowy.

That being said, GEFS and NAM didn't look too bad either.  EURO now playing Dr. No.  I think we can still trend this to at least a 1-3" event S of the Pike in all of SNE and for SE MA / E MA.  

Well it’s always been 1-3 or 2-4 Pike south.  That has been what it’s looked like for 3 days. It’s just can we trend it higher or is that as much as we can do?

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Can't see past hour 39 on the NAM.  I'm guessing it laid a turd?

That being said, I'm holding out for the varsity players to post at 12z before narrowing the goal posts.  A bad NAM run probably sways me about 0.1% one way or the other.

 

It's the NAM..I would think people got the joke.

 

Anyways, I would have liked to see it dig a bit more with height rises ahead. We didn't really see that.

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10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

the ratio discussion really gets wild in the more southern threads

Yep, they do. I'm already finding myself knowing a lot more about what determine the snow ratio on this sub-forum than I ever did in few years of hanging out in the SE sub-forum. 

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15 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Yep, they do. I'm already finding myself knowing a lot more about what determine the snow ratio on this sub-forum than I ever did in few years of hanging out in the SE sub-forum. 

High ratio on the GFS, TTs too, NAM is not and might be only lighter snow with some virga. Oddly the NAM has better lift but more dry air

gfs_2017122806_072_41.75--72.0.png

nam_2017122806_066_41.48--71.86.png

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 09Z SREFs just went crazy

Yeah a lot of big hits in there...but they hold about as much weight with me these days as the NOGAPS. Always overamped it seems. Those are the models that powederfreak is usually looking at to get his digital snow fix when Scooter is getting smoked on all the other guidance.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of big hits in there...but they hold about as much weight with me these days as the NOGAPS. Always overamped it seems. Those are the models that powederfreak is usually looking at to get his digital snow fix when Scooter is getting smoked on all the other guidance.

RGEM extended give about .2 to all of CT Coast , all of RI and EMA south of Boston, a 2-4 or 1-3 seems likely

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of big hits in there...but they hold about as much weight with me these days as the NOGAPS. Always overamped it seems. Those are the models that powederfreak is usually looking at to get his digital snow fix when Scooter is getting smoked on all the other guidance.

LOL. Sipping a double bourbon looking at all the ARW output. Hoping, praying.

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NAM COBB for IJD

171230/1900Z  61  VRB02KT  20.7F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   16:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
171230/2000Z  62  VRB02KT  20.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   14:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
171230/2100Z  63  VRB02KT  20.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   13:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
171230/2200Z  64  08003KT  20.6F  SNOW   17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   14:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
171230/2300Z  65  05003KT  20.6F  SNOW   22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   16:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
171231/0000Z  66  03003KT  20.6F  SNOW   23:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   18:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
171231/0100Z  67  VRB02KT  20.6F  SNOW   19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   18:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
171231/0200Z  68  VRB02KT  20.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   17:1|  2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

RGEM extended give about .2 to all of CT Coast , all of RI and EMA south of Boston, a 2-4 or 1-3 seems likely

12z RGEM looks pretty zonked at 48 hours, so hopefully it's onto something there. Definitely more amped than the NAM. The extended version later will prob look decent if 48 hours is any indication.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z RGEM looks pretty zonked at 48 hours, so hopefully it's onto something there. Definitely more amped than the NAM. The extended version later will prob look decent if 48 hours is any indication.

Yeah that is much better. Definitely more of a digging look there.

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