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Baroclinic Zone

Pre New Years Clipper/Re-developer

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There is definitely time to correct to a decent event. However it's not just one s/w we are keying on...there is another one right on it's heels. So as some said...lots of cooks in the kitchen which can muck up the flow. 

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7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No change from yesterday.

A light to moderate event (esp. S of the Pike) is very much in the cards.  It's still possible we amp up or diminish impacts...12z tomorrow will shed better light.  12z FRI sets the goal posts.

I think a sizeable event is still in play.

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Right through the meat grinder...this one's on life support for a larger event. Prob still viable though for 1-2 mile vis SN- event that drops an inch or two.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Right now seems 2-4 type event Pike south and 1-3 north. Freshen up the pack .08 would drop 2-3 of fluff 

Maybe but it's trending pretty ugly. It's a pretty flat wave. It's got good vorticity with it though, so I wouldn't be shocked if it comes back a little sharper and gives us a few inches of fluff, but we can't have it get any flatter...or it will just be cloudy with a flurry or two.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe but it's trending pretty ugly. It's a pretty flat wave. It's got good vorticity with it though, so I wouldn't be shocked if it comes back a little sharper and gives us a few inches of fluff, but we can't have it get any flatter...or it will just be cloudy with a flurry or two.

Everything else looked better that matters and the EPS was decent. I think the large event was never an option once we lost the PNA, but a light - moderate event is in play 

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Well I started this thread for selfish reasons.  I never felt anyone N of I-90 was in the game for this other than some flurries.  I've felt this was a S Coast of CT/RI/MA and CC special all along.  Initial thinking is 1-3"(highest further S&W away from confluence)

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything else looked better that matters and the EPS was decent. I think the large event was never an option once we lost the PNA, but a light - moderate event is in play 

The problem with that logic is that it was the 00z EPS and the 00z EURO looked decent.  Be interesting to see what the new EPS looks like.  I'm sure the mean though will be a bit more robust than the OP because a couple of good hits out of 50 members can help that case.

And I thought it was ride a horse save a Euro? What else matters?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well I started this thread for selfish reasons.  I never felt anyone N of I-90 was in the game for this other than some flurries.  I've felt this was a S Coast of CT/RI/MA and CC special all along.  Initial thinking is 1-3"(highest further S&W away from confluence)

Agreed... not sure where this talk of 1-3" north of the Pike is coming from based on current guidance, unless its just wishful thinking.  I can't find any model that gives even measurable north of the Pike except the GGEM with 0.02". 

Still think ginxy to you should be able to grab a couple fluffy inches of -SN though.

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