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40/70 Benchmark

I'm Dreaming of a White Xmas

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I’m not so sure the precip is making it totally to the ground.....we’ve been under blue to green returns most of the way from orange to Berlin and it hasn’t been snowing the whole time and wasn’t that heavy.....

1A06FAAC-EA3A-4600-9FBF-2E4D9513B781.thumb.png.3c8100506c5cccbda7581c2108f0ecfa.png

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10 pm update...

Storm taking aim on S New England. Primary low over the E Great
Lakes meeting up with secondary energy off the Mid-Atlantic. The
E inflow apparent as pressure falls begin to emerge. The parent
H5 trof beginning to undergo a negative-tilt as the parent potent
vortmax rounds through the base increasing the cyclonic curvature.
QG-forcing just starting to emerge, frontogenesis and moisture
convergence pulling together and tightening, deformation evolving.
Anticipating a system that will pack a wallop across S New England
tonight going into Monday.

Expanded winter weather headlines. The storm system expected to
over-perform, the concern is with the tandem low pressure centers
evolving and deepening along the secondary off the Mid-Atlantic
that we`ll see strong deformational banding on the backside in a
region of dynamic cooling and steep mid-level lapse rates supportive
of upright-convection / thundersnow. Per the HWRF / HRRR / NCAR
ensembles, reason to believe that this band has the potential of
producing 1-3"/hr snowfall rates where snow-ratios modify higher
with the influx of colder air, winds picking up out of the W
behind the band such that considering the fluffy snow we could
be dealing with blowing and drifting, potential for near-blizzard
criteria with white-out conditions

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2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I’m not so sure the precip is making it totally to the ground.....we’ve been under blue to green returns most of the way from orange to Berlin and it hasn’t been snowing the whole time and wasn’t that heavy.....

1A06FAAC-EA3A-4600-9FBF-2E4D9513B781.thumb.png.3c8100506c5cccbda7581c2108f0ecfa.png

It's snowing at a decent clip just west of you.

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The primary is certainly developing fairly rapidly (looks like 3mb in the past 2 hour) but the secondary is developing just as rapidly with a 2mb drop in the past 2 hours. We have a very broad 925mb circulation going but winds are predominately east right now (the surge of the warmth is more south) and the 850mb circulation has yet to become established. I think the colder solutions may end up working out here b/c this cold air mass isn't easily going to be pushed out and this thing could be moving quickly enough to where by the time it develops the surge of warmth further inland gets cut off and other processes begin taking over 

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
10 pm update...

Storm taking aim on S New England. Primary low over the E Great
Lakes meeting up with secondary energy off the Mid-Atlantic. The
E inflow apparent as pressure falls begin to emerge. The parent
H5 trof beginning to undergo a negative-tilt as the parent potent
vortmax rounds through the base increasing the cyclonic curvature.
QG-forcing just starting to emerge, frontogenesis and moisture
convergence pulling together and tightening, deformation evolving.
Anticipating a system that will pack a wallop across S New England
tonight going into Monday.

Expanded winter weather headlines. The storm system expected to
over-perform, the concern is with the tandem low pressure centers
evolving and deepening along the secondary off the Mid-Atlantic
that we`ll see strong deformational banding on the backside in a
region of dynamic cooling and steep mid-level lapse rates supportive
of upright-convection / thundersnow. Per the HWRF / HRRR / NCAR
ensembles, reason to believe that this band has the potential of
producing 1-3"/hr snowfall rates where snow-ratios modify higher
with the influx of colder air, winds picking up out of the W
behind the band such that considering the fluffy snow we could
be dealing with blowing and drifting, potential for near-blizzard
criteria with white-out conditions

Sweet read!  Per the RGEM snowfall map, we pick up 3" between 7-8.  I'm glad it will be daylight for that.

 

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For S NH, especially the closer you are to the coast, RAP and HRRR are both looking excellent to meet GYX's forecast of 6-10". Nasty wind gusts during midday tomorrow, too.

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27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:
10 pm update...

Storm taking aim on S New England. Primary low over the E Great
Lakes meeting up with secondary energy off the Mid-Atlantic. The
E inflow apparent as pressure falls begin to emerge. The parent
H5 trof beginning to undergo a negative-tilt as the parent potent
vortmax rounds through the base increasing the cyclonic curvature.
QG-forcing just starting to emerge, frontogenesis and moisture
convergence pulling together and tightening, deformation evolving.
Anticipating a system that will pack a wallop across S New England
tonight going into Monday.

Expanded winter weather headlines. The storm system expected to
over-perform, the concern is with the tandem low pressure centers
evolving and deepening along the secondary off the Mid-Atlantic
that we`ll see strong deformational banding on the backside in a
region of dynamic cooling and steep mid-level lapse rates supportive
of upright-convection / thundersnow. Per the HWRF / HRRR / NCAR
ensembles, reason to believe that this band has the potential of
producing 1-3"/hr snowfall rates where snow-ratios modify higher
with the influx of colder air, winds picking up out of the W
behind the band such that considering the fluffy snow we could
be dealing with blowing and drifting, potential for near-blizzard
criteria with white-out conditions

Wiz has been on that for a couple hours now.

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This is almost an hour old but it illustrates the point but we're really beginning to see things blossom up a bit within the WAA regime. Really strong WAA occurring overhead and overriding a pretty cold airmass. This initial WAA stuff could surprise for some

tadv_sf.gif?1514175011240

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