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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


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Bernie Rayno is doing a periscope on it. He says there is certainly a threat, but everything has to come together. He says that the models are gonna be a classic windshield wiper. Back and forth. Could easily be out to sea. Basically, the odds of us getting a HECS during that time is the same odds as flipping a coin and having it land on it's side. The only thing that is certain is that this is uncertain

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The ONLY thing that IS certain, is that we have got us some excellent Vodka Cold. Get out there and enjoy it! You can always chop up ice to high-ratio snow consistency then spread it over your lawn for mood effect lol.

It aint gonna melt, we have got surface frigidization, the ground is freezing up but good and the roads are subfreezing as well.

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7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Bernie Rayno is doing a periscope on it. He says there is certainly a threat, but everything has to come together. He says that the models are gonna be a classic windshield wiper. Back and forth. Could easily be out to sea. Basically, the odds of us getting a HECS during that time is the same odds as flipping a coin and having it land on it's side. The only thing that is certain is that this is uncertain

I am reminded more and more of the winter of 1976-77. Brutal cold and dry. The press of cold from the northwest sets up suppression city to the south and east. Yes, I know that storms can always occur in this pattern, but that is an outlier possibility. I have great hope for possibilities when this pattern relaxes as I suspect after next week. The arctic reserve will have emptied allowing a more reasonable pattern that allows Pacific and Gulf moisture to enter the equation. 

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Based off wxbell maps, 18z GEFS seems a tad east to me. 
GEFS have some delayed clustering tucked into the coast which is likely a reflection of the main energy diving initiating cyclogenesis near the coast. The issue as I've noted is the stj energy running out ahead of the other shortwaves which drags baroclinic zone east, allows for a missed phasing, and also creates a weakness where the surface feature wants to travel ie path of least resistance. Need that front running piece to slow down.
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GEFS have some delayed clustering tucked into the coast which is likely a reflection of the main energy diving initiating cyclogenesis near the coast. The issue as I've noted is the stj energy running out ahead of the other shortwaves which drags baroclinic zone east, allows for a missed phasing, and also creates a weakness where the surface feature wants to travel ie path of least resistance. Need that front running piece to slow down.
Other option is to ditch the triple phase idea, let that front running piece speed up and get out of the way or shear out allowing for some spacing so the followup shortwaves can amplify. But then we are back to another day 7+ threat. These is still potential with the look middle to second half of next week.....Im just not sure the Euro idea has that much of a chance for verification to be honest. There is alot of work to be done to get to that solution. Im all for taking that chance but not loving the odds of it actually working in our favor. These bomb lows are a thing of grace and beauty when they actually pan out. Ones that are a close miss or even a short-term bust can be absolutely brutal.
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The 1978 superstorm was a real triple phaser, for me they need to fully integrate subtropical jet with subarctic and the main jet in between. What I recall (believe it or not, I was in a forecast office when it happened) is that a weak low dove southeast from about Alberta to Alabama on 25th January and a low explosively deepened over TN-KY moving across IN and w OH into Lake Huron the next day. 

We knew the day before something major was about to happen but the best model then (the LFM, limited fine mesh) had a 960 mb low over Lake Ontario so it didn't quite catch all of the development. Needless to say when I arrived to start plotting maps at about 0800 (in Toronto) I was more than a little surprised to find out where the center was and by then it was 955 mbs. I still have that map somewhere. London ON had hurricane force south winds and blowing snow :) ... about five minutes after I arrived, the air conditioning vent on the office building landed in the spot next to my car (would have been further ahead if it had landed on the car but what the hey). 

That storm went from being a 1005 mb low to a 955 mb low in about 12 hours. 

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

New edition of the eps weeklies are out..FWIW- Only important takeaway IMO is that the -EPO looks persistent through most of January. It breaks down a bit, then looks to reload end of the first week in Feb. That is way out there though, so not worth more than a mention.

Yea, and the 12z ens look different (better) than 0z so if the weeklies ran off of 12z it would probably be a different outcome. At least for week 3 anyways. Weeklies haven't been doing well at all. If they had real skill they would have shown the current cold pattern extending longer than first thought during week 3. If they can't get week 3 right then how the hell can they be accurate weeks 4-6?

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range gfs shows a more realistic way we might score in that pattern. 

Agreed. Probably playing with ptype issues but who cares. One thing that caught my eye on the 18z gefs is a trailing blow up instead of the progression the euro shows. 3 similar solutions on the GEFS with a delayed/trailing wave going postal...I mean coastal. 

f168.gif

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33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, and the 12z ens look different (better) than 0z so if the weeklies ran off of 12z it would probably be a different outcome. At least for week 3 anyways. Weeklies haven't been doing well at all. If they had real skill they would have shown the current cold pattern extending longer than first thought during week 3. If they can't get week 3 right then how the hell can they be accurate weeks 4-6?

Their use is pretty limited, to maybe 10 days beyond the end of the run they are based off of. And then you have to look at a few consecutive runs to get a general idea of where the pattern might be headed. Evaluating the last 3 weeklies runs, it now appears the -EPO will continue to be a mainstay. Looking at the Monday edition in isolation or last Thursday and Monday together, it would have been more difficult to come to that conclusion.

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The incoming Pacific wave is overperforming here big time, we were under a 2-4" advisory and we've had 14" since midnight and still pounding down. I think a lot of the energy from this is going to rocket east into that Saturday mini-event but some is diving southeast to try for a run around the trough, maybe there's more life to this than the GFS thinks. 

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29 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The incoming Pacific wave is overperforming here big time, we were under a 2-4" advisory and we've had 14" since midnight and still pounding down. I think a lot of the energy from this is going to rocket east into that Saturday mini-event but some is diving southeast to try for a run around the trough, maybe there's more life to this than the GFS thinks. 

Damn Canadians stealing our snow.

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The 1978 superstorm was a real triple phaser, for me they need to fully integrate subtropical jet with subarctic and the main jet in between. What I recall (believe it or not, I was in a forecast office when it happened) is that a weak low dove southeast from about Alberta to Alabama on 25th January and a low explosively deepened over TN-KY moving across IN and w OH into Lake Huron the next day. 

We knew the day before something major was about to happen but the best model then (the LFM, limited fine mesh) had a 960 mb low over Lake Ontario so it didn't quite catch all of the development. Needless to say when I arrived to start plotting maps at about 0800 (in Toronto) I was more than a little surprised to find out where the center was and by then it was 955 mbs. I still have that map somewhere. London ON had hurricane force south winds and blowing snow :) ... about five minutes after I arrived, the air conditioning vent on the office building landed in the spot next to my car (would have been further ahead if it had landed on the car but what the hey). 

That storm went from being a 1005 mb low to a 955 mb low in about 12 hours. 

Roger,

     Remember that storm very well.  I grew up about 15 miles North of Dayton, Ohio and was in HS in 78.  The wind was incredible along with the pressure drop and flash freeze.  The pressure drop popped our ears several times. 

    The evening before things got nasty my dad and I were working on his small airplane in our hangar at the small municipal airport right outside of town.  The driving rain was intense, but what got our attention was the rate of the pressure drop.  As you may know the altimeter on light aircraft is controlled by air pressure.  Thus if your altitude is fixed you can use the altimeter like a barometer.  The pressure was dropping so fast we could adjust the altimeter every 5 minutes, and by tens of feet each time. 

    The local NWS forecast was for some snow and a little wind, but nothing major.  Based on the pressure drop, about midnight my dad called several of his fellow firefighters and paramedics and told them to all meet at the firehouse and bring supplies (in small town USA everything revolves around the local firehouse).  When the flash freeze took place at 0200 the next morning with the changeover from rain to snow, the wind went bonkers nearly immediately.  Likewise, the conditions turned from wet to whiteout within a few minutes.  A lot of people quickly lost power and roads became impassible in a few hours - plus you literally couldn't see anything to drive anywhere.  By the time first responders knew what was happening, there was not much that could be done. 

    Because of the pressure drop, there were a lot of premature births, and my dad and his paramedic partner delivered two, one in the back of the ambulance as it was buffeted by the winds.  You can't make this stuff up, but it sure would have made for a great movie.

  Will never forget it.  Still a vivid memory nearly 40 years later as it appears to be for you too.  Can only imagine the chaos something like that would create in the DELMARVA. 

 

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The 1978 superstorm was a real triple phaser, for me they need to fully integrate subtropical jet with subarctic and the main jet in between. What I recall (believe it or not, I was in a forecast office when it happened) is that a weak low dove southeast from about Alberta to Alabama on 25th January and a low explosively deepened over TN-KY moving across IN and w OH into Lake Huron the next day. 

We knew the day before something major was about to happen but the best model then (the LFM, limited fine mesh) had a 960 mb low over Lake Ontario so it didn't quite catch all of the development. Needless to say when I arrived to start plotting maps at about 0800 (in Toronto) I was more than a little surprised to find out where the center was and by then it was 955 mbs. I still have that map somewhere. London ON had hurricane force south winds and blowing snow :) ... about five minutes after I arrived, the air conditioning vent on the office building landed in the spot next to my car (would have been further ahead if it had landed on the car but what the hey). 

That storm went from being a 1005 mb low to a 955 mb low in about 12 hours. 

Old lurker here but talking of the 78' storm always gets my attention. And what a storm it was. I was on the southern Jersey coast and have rarely see such intensity- winds ripping and the air thick with heavy flakes swirling in every direction. It was a blinding snow. I was 16, walking a back road and struggling to stay stabile in all of that. You couldn't see an arms length away. All of a sudden, a flash and clap of thunder that literally made me jump backwards. I actually trembled for a moment before I realized what it was. I had no inkling that lightning and thunder could occur in snow.  

Sorry if this is off topic but I had a moment of weakness. Thanks to all AmWx posters. I really enjoy it since the days of northeasternuswx news group and DT firing off crazy posts lol. 

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The incoming Pacific wave is overperforming here big time, we were under a 2-4" advisory and we've had 14" since midnight and still pounding down. I think a lot of the energy from this is going to rocket east into that Saturday mini-event but some is diving southeast to try for a run around the trough, maybe there's more life to this than the GFS thinks. 

NICE!

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