Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Seems like we get ripped off some how, but still nice Mitch, if h5 closes off exactly like what the euro just did....there will be banding up the ying yang. Even thunder and lightning. I'm prepared for the obvious fail but it's fun to contemplate how this run would play out in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'd take this, but think we might even do better on a future run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wes with this setup I wouldn’t feel comfortable until we’re like 36-48hrs out. High risk high reward setup. I won't feel comfortable until I see it snowing. At least good precip makes it pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Seems like we get ripped off some how, but still nice IF this happens, giant freaking IF, it would likely be a dendrite bomb with us parked in the CCB the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 DT mentioned he was not bullish on this storm at all that the upper pattern didnt support it. Guess thats why this storm is looking better all the time. Not to call the guy out but his forecasts have been really bad for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: IF this happens, giant freaking IF, it would likely be a dendrite bomb with us parked in the CCB the whole time. I'd love to see the soundings off this run. There is no doubt in my mind there are +TSSN soundings in the area. No doubt at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With the bowling ball closing off like this and the southern vort backing in....this is a powderkeg run across the board...god dang it, this will drive a weenie crazy... It's a trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 You guys do well with ratios over a foot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: If only...if only. The end all be all storm of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: IF this happens, giant freaking IF, it would likely be a dendrite bomb with us parked in the CCB the whole time. That was pretty much my entire takeaway. Back that thing in just a bit closer and we might have a blizzard on our hands. You know, if this was actually even a realistic scenario, which I highly doubt it is, although the trend over the past 24 hrs is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: The west dual low is tucked in pretty close at 168, I imagine precip went pretty far west. Highly doubt that look holds but if it does score some points for the GGEM in seeing that kind of evolution first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Mitch, if h5 closes off exactly like what the euro just did....there will be banding up the ying yang. Even thunder and lightning. I'm prepared for the obvious fail but it's fun to contemplate how this run would play out in real life. Sort of like buying a Powerball ticket to dream for a measly few hours of what you would do with the money? Wake up the next morning with a “not even one damn number” and the ground is still brown to boot! Anyway—let’s win one! We got this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ridiculous cold showing up after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro almost CMC-like with temps for the latter part of the run. Plenty of single digits at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Lol, I was sure you were going to post the *other* storm’s 500 map— the one that “shall not be named.” The northern S dig then phase that didn’t quite work out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: It's a trap. I'm just hoping to scrape some qpf out of the deal. Guidance is sorta locked in on the general idea and it's certainly more of a SNE/NNE type of progression. All the important stuff happens between 120-144 so we're still 2-3 days away from a range where things become believable. GEFS has a couple similar solutions though so there's that.... I'm beyond gun shy though... And I hate complicated stream interactions like this... but there's a chance so I'll be staying up until 2am tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Ridiculous cold showing up after storm. If that snowfall happened as portrayed with a powerful storm like that, the funnel of arctic cold would drop temps to below zero well South of our area - record breaking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Anyone got the Kuchera? Thinking we’d do better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, frd said: If that snowfall happened as portrayed with a powerful storm like that, the funnel of arctic cold would drop temps to below zero well South of our area - record breaking . This whole Russian influence in DC thing is going a bit too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It's a tropical storm of snow, basically ... anything close to that evolution would be good for 30-40 inch totals in a frontal band and I think that would be north-south near BWI to DCA. This is picking up that energy peak and saying, needs 24-36h to lift all this cold air out of the way, then boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The worst part of this is it's beginning to make me giddy. I hate trying to temper expectations when seeing something like THAT depicted. One week away....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 We usually do pretty well in storms when SW VA gets no liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'm really thankful we have a light event on tap over the next 72 hours. That will help pass the time until we either take this one seriously or write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 FWIW, JMA is much closer to the GFS than the Euro. Further East, even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: We usually do pretty well in storms when SW VA gets no liquid. That will get fixed @ 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I always worry when it takes that much digging of the northern stream. knock down the upstream ridge a bit and poof, the low runs farther east. Need it to be in the 72 hour time range. That is what I'm thinking too...so much has to go perfect and in an extreme way for this to work. I still want to see things trend towards a further west dig of the trough to allow everything to get going better to our south...then I would feel more confident that this doesn't end up a New ENgland special. The euro lends some hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yea, relax looks imminent....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just hoping to scrape some qpf out of the deal. Guidance is sorta locked in on the general idea and it's certainly more of a SNE/NNE type of progression. All the important stuff happens between 120-144 so we're still 2-3 days away from a range where things become believable. GEFS has a couple similar solutions though so there's that.... I'm beyond gun shy though... And I hate complicated stream interactions like this... but there's a chance so I'll be staying up until 2am tonight. I get it and I'm right there with you, but until Sunday, I'll remain meh after the last two debacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd love to see the soundings off this run. There is no doubt in my mind there are +TSSN soundings in the area. No doubt at all.... IF this run verified verbatim, it would elbow itself high up the NESIS list. Absolute blizzard for NYC. As for our area, absolutely. We wouldn’t have as much precip, but we’d get great ratios and banding. Damn there I go getting excited about this fantasy. Probably better off to root for this thing becoming a healthy clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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