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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Today the Euro says the 8th or 9th. Interestingly the euro also has its own iteration of the AK ridge. Fantasy relax remains on hold. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

Interesting progression, Jan may turn out a bit different from expectations. Wonder what this pattern would roll over too.

Another thing too,  considering maybe a - NAO developing after a break down and re-load .  Wonder if by the end of Jan heights build over Greenland. 

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

All of them had suppression issues too I believe at some point.  I know 2000 did for most of mid December and 81-82 did the entire winter 

81/82 was a very good snow winter here. 1/82 cleared 14” at all three of IAD/BWI/DCA, so no long term suppression issues here in spite of the historic Inauguration cold.

1/01 was boring with three chances and some snow and 1/84 was a gradient snow month, much better for the NW suburbs.

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3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

81/82 was a very good snow winter here. 1/82 cleared 14” at all three of IAD/BWI/DCA, so no long term suppression issues here in spite of the historic Inauguration cold.

1/01 was boring with three chances and some snow and 1/84 was a gradient snow month, much better for the NW suburbs.

14 inches is not even close to a good winter in my book. It's not even climo.

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3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

81/82 was a very good snow winter here. 1/82 cleared 14” at all three of IAD/BWI/DCA, so no long term suppression issues here in spite of the historic Inauguration cold.

1/01 was boring with three chances and some snow and 1/84 was a gradient snow month, much better for the NW suburbs.

83/84-all I can remember is Christmas day single digits. I remember driving over to the Chesapeake Bay looking for possible bay effect snsw, but no luck.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

14 inches is not even close to a good winter in my book. It's not even climo.

Oh my goodness. So negative all the time. Read what I wrote- 14+” for just the month January. The winter was well above average 23-30” for the three airports. And, yes, long timers will tell you it was a very good winter.

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

83/84-all I can remember is Christmas day single digits. I remember driving over to the Chesapeake Bay looking for possible bay effect snsw, but no luck.

Pretty good quick hitter in January. Don't remember the day but it was 4-7 across the metro.  Snowed heavy for about 4-6 hours. Very similar to the march clipper that year.

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

83/84-all I can remember is Christmas day single digits. I remember driving over to the Chesapeake Bay looking for possible bay effect snsw, but no luck.

In 83 Cmas the old Choptank River bridge was in use and it was so windy that the spray iced some of the road deck during the middle of the day. The wind chill in early night was top 3 coldest ever for me 

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3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Oh my goodness. So negative all the time. Read what I wrote- 14+” for just the month January. The winter was well above average 23-30” for the three airports. And, yes, long timers will tell you it was a very good winter.

Ah my bad, I thought you made a typo and by 1/82 you left out the "8" in front of 81 since you were talking about the winter as a whole. Yes, 14 inches in one month is quite good.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is starting to pick up on the jacked up coastal d7+. Not a ton of support but notably more than last night. Overall it looks too east or too late but it's a recent development so who knows how it breaks. Nice to see some support though. 

Is it my poor or just jaded memory that when the Euro picks up on a NE bomb, it holds onto it more than it ever holds on to anything showing a MA bomb. Just yesterday it had the great look for us and then it went to the NE bomb last night,  then again today, and now the eps are jumping on board in support. I think their European latitude gives them an edge.

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4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Oh my goodness. So negative all the time. Read what I wrote- 14+” for just the month January. The winter was well above average 23-30” for the three airports. And, yes, long timers will tell you it was a very good winter.

Snow cover for most of the month. We would all sign up for Jan. 82 in a heartbeat. 

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4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Pretty good quick hitter in January. Don't remember the day but it was 4-7 across the metro.  Snowed heavy for about 4-6 hours. Very similar to the march clipper that year.

And a severe cold wave following... IAD set its all time coldest temps at -18 F and a  -16 F the night before with highs in the teens. 

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There have been some solid other cold ones but would say either via duration or intensity the historic ones around me were 77,82,85 and 94. Feb 2007 and a few others one level down from the history makers

inaguration morning at 2am 1985 the temp was minus 2 and winds gusting to 30-35mph I know we aren't to use wind chill in gusts but your skin feels the gusts and on the old scale that was -55 wc

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9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Is it my poor or just jaded memory that when the Euro picks up on a NE bomb, it holds onto it more than it ever holds on to anything showing a MA bomb. Just yesterday it had the great look for us and then it went to the NE bomb last night,  then again today, and now the eps are jumping on board in support. I think their European latitude gives them an edge.

I think that's more because this type of northern stream dominated pattern is very conducive to big NE snowstorms unfortunately. We saw this happen just a few winters ago when Boston got insane amounts of snow.

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EPS control says DC to Philly get screwed and NY and Boston score big. I'd take this, since snow is better than no snow

5a44017e133f5_eps_snow_c_ma_41(1).thumb.png.3acab92df560c9c6ee88e4772ddc4918.png

Canadian has, funnily enough, been the most consistent with the storm. It strengthens it very early, resulting in a MECS. Best case scenario, basically. I wouldn't put much stock in it, since it's the Canadian

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29.thumb.png.7e5b2ad4411cacb82f7b85a599519ffd.png

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