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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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1 hour ago, snowlover91 said:

The 09z SREF was interesting. It actually had a few cutters and some amped up members. 

15Z was definitely much further south.  09 was insanely far north from 81-87 over places like Tennessee 

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So which was the latest run? 9 or 15z

21UTC=00z

03UTC=06z

09UTC=12z

15UTC=18z

15UTC would be the most recent.

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah but it's for the 27th storm, my bad

It’s been trying to trend on this short term first wave here.

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19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Out to 39 on the NAM , looks about the same, or a little wetter

So any better on the qpf field? Move northwest at all? 

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3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So any better on the qpf field? Move northwest at all? 

Not on the second wave no. This thing is a dud at this point. You live in eastern NC or SE VA on the first wave you may have a little surprise. 

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Still plenty of time for this to move back north... take the Wednesday system as example. I'm not saying it will, but it certainly could.

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2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

18z yesterday and 18z today... the trends are obvious and should not be a surprise 

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_46.png

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_38.png

Wrong storm this is the 27th

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Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter,  one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . 

 

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It's like pulling teeth to get a storm to keep showing up on the models, just crazy.  I wish the storms would hold as easy as they fold.

 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

That New Years storm, going beast mode!! Only 6 days out!

And then either has convective feedback issues or the low is so strong in the gulf it completely robs us of all moisture availability. That’s ok at 12z the gfs had the darn thing headed toward Cuba lol. 

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Looks like I'm going to be busy shoveling that cold air, Until the pattern breaks probably early to Mid January!!! 

 

Heck of a winter storm in my forecast for late week!  What happened to all that SW flow over running for late week? I thought the way a lot of Mets talked it was almost a lock???  DDT said the models were wrong last night! lol 

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance
of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs
in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
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2 minutes ago, fritschy said:

Go figure, :ee:

With a low that strong in the gulf tho you know the presentation at the surface would be much more promising. It keeps trending more north that particular system may not be over. Kinda hoping on this one. I feel destroyed after this storm that was slated for Friday literally vanished when we had redux’s of 96, 88, 525 AD, 535 BC being thrown around. 

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I swear, watching these models is the equalivent of watching Carolina play yesterday.  So much stress. We did end winning at the last minute, so maybe the models will end up showing some love to some of us. Especially the ones that missed out last time. I have lowered my expectations though. But I refuse to start cliff diving. At least up until tonights and tomorrows runs. Good luck to everyone and thanks for the professional insight that is provided on this forum! I've learned so much. :)

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter,  one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . 

 

This is probably banter so please forgive me Chris but this **** has got to stop. All the whining and banter is clouding the information and it’s frustrating. People think we’re being “cliquish” or whatever don’t realize they wouldn’t have made it 48 hours on the old boards.

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