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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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I believe Bob Chill said it best. We would be better off if operational models only ran out to 120 hrs and ensembles went out to the long range. Would temper the expectations for a lot of folks. Going off the last couple precip events for up here weve over performed all the modeling for qpf. Hopefully this one continues the trend and we can squeeze out .25 or more and its powdery snow.

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2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

I believe Bob Chill said it best. We would be better off if operational models only ran out to 120 hrs and ensembles went out to the long range. Would temper the expectations for a lot of folks. Going off the last couple precip events for up here weve over performed all the modeling for qpf. Hopefully this one continues the trend and we can squeeze out .25 or more and its powdery snow.

My signature quote from isohume about ghosts and the GFS says it best. Lol. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

This is just sad...Euro says it should be sunny and brisk on Thursday and Friday.  ecmwf_6h_precip_conus_78.pnggfs_6h_precip_conus_78.png

So it’s NAM/GFS/NAVGEM/JMA vs EURO/CMC/UK now. 

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It's just amazing, I've never seen such a model consensus all go to nothing so fast. Although that's probably because we've never seen TOO MUCH confluence and cold trending as we get closer to the event. :unsure:

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3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

So it’s NAM/GFS/NAVGEM/JMA vs EURO/CMC/UK now. 

Add the ICON and UK to our side, 12z UK was a huge improvement compared to previous runs and so was ICON. Afaic, this isn't over.

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4 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

i saw a squirrel burying a nut in my back yard... so there's that. 

Can’t forget about the worms and the birds either. What ever happened to that one forum member anyways? 

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4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Can’t forget about the worms and the birds either. What ever happened to that one forum member anyways? 

You're referring to Wilkesborodude ..... he was banned several times and has not returned.

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

When I wake up from a Christmas nap and 37 new replies, and the only positive one was about SREFS, we're all doomed, if you wanted snow! :(

JMA....you have Pokemon, Navgem/GEFS/GFS/CMC-Ens and now JMA with solid QPF across the area.  But the two best models on the planet have literally nothing.  I don't ever remember a disparity between the UK/Euro and rest of the world inside day 4.  I would be happy with .1-.2" of QPF which would be some light flurries/dusting.

And the UK is just dry for our areas, has solid precip in s/c/e Atl/SC.

jma_apcpn_us_4.png

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

When I wake up from a Christmas nap and 37 new replies, and the only positive one was about SREFS, we're all doomed, if you wanted snow! :(

It wouldn’t be snow anyways. Ice or dry. 

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I’m fine with a little suppression as long as I can get around .25 qpf with high ratios. That’s at least a decent little snow event. Then I can hold out hope for round 2. Hoping Euro will eventually start to trend back a bit like the UK.

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The CMC ensemble suite was definitely wetter than the OP and the EURO was actually in improvement with a slightly weaker confluence push...which if anything may have stopped the squashed out trend for now.  

Once our players get more into the deeper network of OBS, we should have a better picture in the next 12 to 24 hours.  Still amazing how much uncertainty though there is just a few days out.

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

JMA....you have Pokemon, Navgem/GEFS/GFS/CMC-Ens and now JMA with solid QPF across the area.  But the two best models on the planet have literally nothing.  I don't ever remember a disparity between the UK/Euro and rest of the world inside day 4.  I would be happy with .1-.2" of QPF which would be some light flurries/dusting.

And the UK is just dry for our areas, has solid precip in s/c/e Atl/SC.

It would be closer to an inch or two because of ratios.

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Of interest is the uptick in qpf shown by the RGEM and NAM for the Wednesday morning system. This is a recent development and initially this wave wasn’t forecast to do anything for the area. It’s been trending wetter and more amped. Hmmm. Here are the RGEM ensembles below. 

PNMPR_panel_048.gif

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

.5-1” of ice for me.. good to know (good thing I bought dad a saw for Christmas)

The RGEM is in MM so you’ll need to convert it first. Likely .10 or so qpf with that first wave Wednesday if it was right. 

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