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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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16 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

Sure it’s a self-limiting process but when you have the best models like the NAM showing sleet and freezing rain, you can trust it with pretty high confidence as they are great with thermals, CAD, and they do in fact factor in WAA vs CAA and the latent heat release. Inside 48 hours no global model should be relied on as the mesoscale models like the 3km NAM and RGEM are vastly superior. 

Notice on the 12km NAM the winds are NE indicative of the HP still dominating the surface flow. If the GLL was dominant these winds would be out of the SE. Even well to our west there is no SW wind at the surface as the GLL is simply not relevant here. 

namconus_mslp_wind_seus_45.png

Now notice the dewpoints to the NE. Plenty of cold, dry air to advect in and sustain the ice. Again notice winds are NE.

namconus_Td2m_seus_46.png

Notice how the winds backing in VA. 

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11 hours ago, Solak said:
DSAH7UKWsAEKIJC.jpg

I can't believe the NWS put out  WWA for basically a none event.  Not the first time though.  Sunrise in another hour plus.  Dewpoints have been rising the last several hours. Essentially those under a current WWA have dewpoints at 30 and above.  Currently looking at radar and temps. Cold enough dewpoints to support zr at first.  But quickly scours out.  Very very shallow cold to be overtaken by waa. Eastern areas of the WWA at 35 to 38 degrees. No way they drop below freezing.  

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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

May have to update that. Per Rader that's all snow entering upstate and field looks fantastic. 31/26 here. Made it down to 27 earlier.

Yeah, could be a nice little suprise and hit during peak rush hour! Side note KK on 21, just said bone dry for Sun/Mon, lol! She might be right, but the big two latest runs, have the storm

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3 hours ago, FLweather said:

Notice how the winds backing in VA. 

Not going to continue to debate this but I believe I and others have made it pretty clear why it would have been ice as modeled if there was ample precip in those areas Friday. 

My friend is reporting snow in Macclesfield, NC area and said it’s already covering the roof and sticking to grassy surfaces. 

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1 hour ago, FLweather said:

Congrats That's just confirmation for me trolling and Buckeye too ban me.  Just proof the CAD not as strong as prog.

Read more and post less  :angry:    The only confirmation that has happened is the fact you have no clue what you are talking about.  You are on thin ice so tread carefully  ;) 

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