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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

That New Years storm, going beast mode!! Only 6 days out!

And then either has convective feedback issues or the low is so strong in the gulf it completely robs us of all moisture availability. That’s ok at 12z the gfs had the darn thing headed toward Cuba lol. 

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Looks like I'm going to be busy shoveling that cold air, Until the pattern breaks probably early to Mid January!!! 

 

Heck of a winter storm in my forecast for late week!  What happened to all that SW flow over running for late week? I thought the way a lot of Mets talked it was almost a lock???  DDT said the models were wrong last night! lol 

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance
of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs
in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
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2 minutes ago, fritschy said:

Go figure, :ee:

With a low that strong in the gulf tho you know the presentation at the surface would be much more promising. It keeps trending more north that particular system may not be over. Kinda hoping on this one. I feel destroyed after this storm that was slated for Friday literally vanished when we had redux’s of 96, 88, 525 AD, 535 BC being thrown around. 

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I swear, watching these models is the equalivent of watching Carolina play yesterday.  So much stress. We did end winning at the last minute, so maybe the models will end up showing some love to some of us. Especially the ones that missed out last time. I have lowered my expectations though. But I refuse to start cliff diving. At least up until tonights and tomorrows runs. Good luck to everyone and thanks for the professional insight that is provided on this forum! I've learned so much. :)

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter,  one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . 

 

This is probably banter so please forgive me Chris but this **** has got to stop. All the whining and banter is clouding the information and it’s frustrating. People think we’re being “cliquish” or whatever don’t realize they wouldn’t have made it 48 hours on the old boards.

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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Looks like I'm going to be busy shoveling that cold air, Until the pattern breaks probably early to Mid January!!! 

 

Heck of a winter storm in my forecast for late week!  What happened to all that SW flow over running for late week? I thought the way a lot of Mets talked it was almost a lock???  DDT said the models were wrong last night! lol 


THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance
of snow. Lows around 20. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs
in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows 15 to 20. 
.NEW YEARS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 

Models backed way off on storm we received back on the 8th and 9th of his months. Then last minute we go to winter storm. We received 5 inches with this storm.  Conditions will be quite different this time. Much colder if it happens.  

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38 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Something to watch is the wave moving through Wednesday morning. Models have suddenly trended stronger with this feature, mainly the mesoscale ones, and the RGEM is now printing out more than .25 in qpf. 

 

Could be looking at 2-3 measurable events around here in a week, been a long time since that has happened. Need the waves to amp up just a bit more than the GFS has but not to much more....the way the 18Z GFS unfolds with the over running on the 1st and then the SLP in the gulf jumping to offshore the SE moving ENE on the 2-3rd is about perfect for us in PGV. Its not crazy heavy snow but its 24 hr of snow and good for probably 6-8" just on the 2-3rd. Be nice if this wave Wed surprises but I will take a pass on it if it will lock in the 2-3rd storm. 

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Alright, so without wishcasting, is there a real chance the 29th storm comes more N with the precip? What changes in the model runs do we need to look for, besides just precip shield?

Well the German model 18z run shifted north considerably... 

18z run

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

12z run

4tmx5sR.gif

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