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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

When I wake up from a Christmas nap and 37 new replies, and the only positive one was about SREFS, we're all doomed, if you wanted snow! :(

JMA....you have Pokemon, Navgem/GEFS/GFS/CMC-Ens and now JMA with solid QPF across the area.  But the two best models on the planet have literally nothing.  I don't ever remember a disparity between the UK/Euro and rest of the world inside day 4.  I would be happy with .1-.2" of QPF which would be some light flurries/dusting.

And the UK is just dry for our areas, has solid precip in s/c/e Atl/SC.

jma_apcpn_us_4.png

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The CMC ensemble suite was definitely wetter than the OP and the EURO was actually in improvement with a slightly weaker confluence push...which if anything may have stopped the squashed out trend for now.  

Once our players get more into the deeper network of OBS, we should have a better picture in the next 12 to 24 hours.  Still amazing how much uncertainty though there is just a few days out.

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Of interest is the uptick in qpf shown by the RGEM and NAM for the Wednesday morning system. This is a recent development and initially this wave wasn’t forecast to do anything for the area. It’s been trending wetter and more amped. Hmmm. Here are the RGEM ensembles below. 

PNMPR_panel_048.gif

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