The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Gfs going hulk mode at 105 wow!! 

Yep, nice little storm:

 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, nice little storm:

 

Literally just missed something MUCH larger, as the low off the coast begins to deepen rapidly as it’s pulling away.

plenty of time to trend.

[Lookout]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

So we should cliff dive then at Lookout’s place?  

hehe...cliff is probably closed for this round

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Last three runs pull the developed low closer and closer 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

I think most on here would rather have nothing at all than having an ice storm the GFS is depicting. Can it really be that wrong with the 850 mb readings this close in? I hope so. Yuck.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Should be some juiced up ensemble members here in a bit. 

[FallsLake]

Of course most of this is ice for the bottoms 2/3 of the SE. This is better than 12z; in some cases by half. 

 

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Should be some juiced up ensemble members here in a bit. 

Yep, i'm betting so, even though this run was slightly drier here.

[GAdawg]

Lookout it appears this area is gonna have a nasty ice storm...not what we really want.  Sleet is fine but ice can stay away.

[GAdawg]

Okay Happy Birthday to me if we actually end up with snow here...I saw the ice but did not see the snow totals...hope more snow less ice

[Cary_Snow95]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

4” of ice... I will freaking cry

That would only equate to .4” of ice. 

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Of course most of this is ice for the bottoms 2/3 of the SE. This is better than 12z; in some cases by half. 

 

Snow ratios should be higher than the standard 10:1 ratios, so this could be a nice treat!

[BullCityWx]

This is from 12z..look at how deep the atmosphere is saturated. You're going to do better than usual with that. 

 

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

4” of ice... I will freaking cry

No it generates 10:1 snow totals from anything that is frozen (snow and sleet) or freezing rain. So your probably looking at .4 to .5 qpf of freezing rain. Still a bad ice storm. 

[BullCityWx]

Round 2 is spooling up 

[Orangeburgwx]

1053mb HP over Nebraska at 162

[Wow]

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Round 2 is spooling up 

Yep..slower too, which what we need there. Stronger wave over N Mex.  Beautiful.

[ajr]

Way colder at the 850 level out to 168

[BIG FROSTY]

Boy the 12z Euro really moist here. (Not)!

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MWK    LAT=  36.45 LON=  -80.55 ELE=  1247

                                            12Z DEC24
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 12Z 24-DEC   6.0     3.1    1020      75      13    0.00     569     552    
SUN 18Z 24-DEC   7.8     2.3    1017      70      17    0.00     566     552    
MON 00Z 25-DEC   6.6     2.0    1014      78      36    0.00     562     550    
MON 06Z 25-DEC   4.9    -4.6    1015      59       2    0.00     552     540    
MON 12Z 25-DEC  -2.6   -12.6    1024      45       2    0.00     556     538    
MON 18Z 25-DEC   0.3   -11.4    1026      33       4    0.00     558     537    
TUE 00Z 26-DEC  -0.8    -9.2    1028      42      23    0.00     559     536    
TUE 06Z 26-DEC  -1.2    -4.1    1030      42      68    0.00     558     535    
TUE 12Z 26-DEC  -2.7    -5.5    1033      56      92    0.00     559     533    
TUE 18Z 26-DEC   3.2    -5.0    1032      39      63    0.00     560     534    
WED 00Z 27-DEC  -0.9    -4.5    1032      66      38    0.00     561     536    
WED 06Z 27-DEC  -2.4    -3.8    1031      68      47    0.00     562     537    
WED 12Z 27-DEC  -3.2    -3.6    1031      71      65    0.00     561     537    
WED 18Z 27-DEC   5.1    -6.3    1030      44      22    0.00     561     537    
THU 00Z 28-DEC  -1.8    -4.9    1033      53      12    0.00     563     537    
THU 06Z 28-DEC  -6.3    -5.2    1037      39      10    0.00     563     535    
THU 12Z 28-DEC  -7.8    -6.0    1038      34      17    0.00     565     535    
THU 18Z 28-DEC  -1.9    -6.3    1036      23      25    0.00     563     535    
FRI 00Z 29-DEC  -4.7    -5.7    1035      37      87    0.00     562     535    
FRI 06Z 29-DEC  -4.8    -5.5    1033      34     100    0.00     561     535    
FRI 12Z 29-DEC  -5.2    -4.9    1031      50      89    0.02     559     535    
FRI 18Z 29-DEC  -0.6    -2.8    1027      41      83    0.00     557     536    
SAT 00Z 30-DEC  -2.4    -1.6    1025      56      43    0.00     556     536    
SAT 06Z 30-DEC  -2.4    -0.7    1021      58      54    0.00     552     535    
SAT 12Z 30-DEC  -2.5    -0.7    1017      67      73    0.00     551     538    
SAT 18Z 30-DEC   7.2    -2.8    1007      48      55    0.00     544     538    
SUN 00Z 31-DEC  -7.1   -17.0    1016      39       5    0.02     535     523    
SUN 06Z 31-DEC -12.8   -22.8    1022      36      20    0.00     530     514    
SUN 12Z 31-DEC -14.6   -22.0    1026      41      14    0.00     531     511    

[POWERSTROKE]

17 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I think most on here would rather have nothing at all than having an ice storm the GFS is depicting. Can it really be that wrong with the 850 mb readings this close in? I hope so. Yuck.

I will take ice. Anything wintry

[Wow]

Round 2 a big hit as well via the 18z GFS

[SnowGoose69]

23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, nice little storm:

 

It’s rare to see the GFS have the wedge at this range back that far into GA.  It usually is badly underestimated even inside 72 and rarely has it to ATL 

[BIG FROSTY]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Round 2 a big hit as well via the 18z GFS

need just a tiny shift NW 

[snowlover91]

I think it would be easier if we keep round 2 focused to the other thread? It’s getting confusing..

[WarmNose]

32 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Of course most of this is ice for the bottoms 2/3 of the SE. This is better than 12z; in some cases by half. 

 

Jackpot band creeping north and stronger every run.

[Orangeburgwx]

The ensembles are going to be insane

[Lookout]

25 minutes ago, GAdawg said:

Lookout it appears this area is gonna have a nasty ice storm...not what we really want.  Sleet is fine but ice can stay away.

I think we could see a decent portion of the storm as sleet across at least northeast sections of the state...with potentially mostly sleet in the upstate..fortunately. Soundings for the first half of the storm look very cold. canadian and euro wetbulbs suggest temps dropping as low as 23 to 25...with gfs in the upper 20s. But right off the surface, canadian has 925mb temps of -7 to -8c and nearly -10c in the upstate...euro/gfs is -4 to -5c.. So the worst of the freezing rain could end up being in the western half of north ga and parts of north central ga...and sc...depending on exactly how cold the low levels are and the extent of the warm nose. It seems the upstate at least is solidly in the sleet category so far..and ne ga is 50/50...which would make for quite a mess still. 

 

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I think we could see a decent portion of the storm as sleet across at least northeast sections of the state...with potentially mostly sleet in the upstate..fortunately. Soundings for the first half of the storm look very cold. canadian and euro wetbulbs suggest temps dropping as low as 23 to 25...with gfs in the upper 20s. But right off the surface, canadian has 925mb temps of -7 to -8c and nearly -10c in the upstate...euro/gfs is -4 to -5c.. So the worst of the freezing rain could end up being in the western half of north ga and parts of north central ga...and sc...depending on exactly how cold the low levels are and the extent of the warm nose. It seems the upstate at least is solidly in the sleet category so far..and ne ga is 50/50...which would make for quite a mess still. 

 

Hoping to get a front end thump of snow before going to sleet. Think the models have this starting Thursday night? Give us the 12 hour early finger of moisture, hopefully Thursday morning is good and cold to start!? Mid 20s should do, with some single digit dp's!

[oconeexman]

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hoping to get a front end thump of snow before going to sleet. Think the models have this starting Thursday night? Give us the 12 hour early finger of moisture, hopefully Thursday morning is good and cold to start!? Mid 20s should do, with some single digit dp's!

Oh yes the finger! Should hopefully see that develope on the Nam by tomorrow. But with these dew points could be mostly virga. But i like your thinking and wouldnt surprise me a bit if it doesnt start as light snow thursday by lunch just looking at the timing off todays runs

[Orangeburgwx]

18 hours straight of ice, time to have me a store run!