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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

lilj4425

By lilj4425,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

EPS has roughly 28 members with 0.5" or more qpf back to Raleigh, of those 18 or so are 1" or great, give or take.  Of the 22 members that are under 0.5" they are relatively light.  So 60% of the members are as good as the op or better and 40% are worse.  Hopefully 0z that ticks up to 70/30.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

EPS has roughly 28 members with 0.5" or more qpf back to Raleigh, of those 18 or so are 1" or great, give or take.  Of the 22 members that are under 0.5" they are relatively light.  So 60% of the members are as good as the op or better and 40% are worse.  Hopefully 0z that ticks up to 70/30.

That's not bad at this range. But as you stated hopefully that trends better in coming runs. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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Just now, lilj4425 said:

Do we really want an amped up system though? Wouldn’t that mean more of a warm nose? I’d rather have weak and snowy/sleet then strong and ZR. 

85 and points NW in NC/SC want it amped up to get precip back to them, people east of there like us want it to stay like it is.  Usually we know how this ends but the models have been trending with lower and lower heights in the east.  The Greenland block has been ticking SE the past few runs.  It seems like forever now that we have seen a block maintain it's strength at this range, they almost always end up weaker inside day 4.  This looks different though, not sure we will get that.  If we did we would see the SER pop and the wave potentially strengthen, wouldn't take much.

HxgHbzH.gifd

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wow said:

For joy, yes. That's exactly where I want it.

Lol at all the cliff jumping. I'll take my chances with that as  4 day look anytime. If it gets suppressed it gets suppressed, but that would be rare, 95% of the time it will come back a little NW. Maybe this is one of the 5% and the high truly continues to press but looking good  me. And better than a major ice storm at any rate.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH discussion:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

 

...Cold Arctic Air spreading into the SE US could bring a threat of

Wintry Precip Events to central NC....

 

Pacific shortwave energy tracking east across the CONUS with the

deep cyclonic flow associated with the reloading Arctic Vortex over

Canada will help to bring reinforcing shots of arctic air along with

multiple threats for wintry precipitation for central NC during the

long term period.

Models have been very inconsistent, offering poor run-to-run

continuity with the magnitude/track with the embedded smaller scale

shortwave features. And thus, confidence remains  low in the

forecast details.

 

System #1 is expected to approach the area late Tuesday night-early

Wednesday, with the potential to bring very brief and fleeting

saturation aloft across the area. Given limited forcing and limited

liquid equivalent, precipitation could fall briefly as a mixture of

rain/snow with little to no impacts and/or accumulations.

 

System #2, is forecast to be a more amplified shortwave trough,

comprised of multiple shortwave disturbances, that will traverse the

central CONUS during the mid week period and will move into the

region late Thursday-Friday. With an Arctic high centered over

eastern Canada and ridging south across the Eastern Seaboard,

confidence is high that a low-level cold air source will be longed

established. However, there is much uncertainty regarding just how

far offshore/south the coastal low will develop, which has been the

primary cause of the poor model continuity over the several days. If

the low develops too far south/southeast, bulk of moisture/precip

will be confined to eastern and southeastern portions of the state

and quite possibly even south/southeast of the area in the more

suppressed model solutions. The location/track of the coastal low

will be our primary focus over the next several days and will play a

prominent role in determining precip type and amounts. For now, it

is just too early to get too  caught up in forecast details. What

all NC residents should know now, is that there is an

increased/elevated risk for winter weather weather late Thursday

through Friday night. The afternoon package will reflect a strong

dose of NC climatology WRT to precip-type, which is also supportive

by partial thicknesses which indicate predominately snow across the

Piedmont and a wintry mix of snow-sleet and possibly some freezing

rain across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

 

Finally, the active cyclonic flow aloft could potentially bring

system #3 into the area New Year`s Eve/New Year`s Day. With

antecedent arctic airmass in place, frozen precip is possible.

 

Temperatures through the period will be well below with highs

struggling to climb into the 40s. Lows in the 20s.

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