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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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54 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I don't know. It is snow depth so I would assume it uses a little bit of logic. 

edit: but thinking about it, most individual runs shows a lot of ice. So maybe this is all frozen and freezing types. 

For sure some of those accumulations will be ice for NC. I would probably halve (at least) those totals. Still a great signal from an ensemble method this far out. 

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22 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Does that include ice

It's a stock 10:1 with snow flag triggered which does not incorporate a mixed bag.  Just looking at H5 amoms, unsure if we do that anymore.  The difference between the 0 and 12z GFS is pretty striking.  The lack of a retrograding SE ridge allows for less amplification of the trough in to the MS valley, a result of the ULL being flattened in upper Plains. 

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Euro prior to the onset of the event has TDs into the teens all the way to GA/SC line stretching into northern 1/2 of GA.  Drops KCHS to 34 at 06z 12/29. 

EURO eroding southern edge of the wedge too quickly with steady precipitation with such a strong wedge established.  Don't forgot its slight warm bias as well.  This is a classic CAD signature.  

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Robert has chimed in on FB: "The European Model remains adamant on tapping the Gulf around Thursday, sparking a low pressure that turns into a Beast Snowstorm , and IceStorm---depending on your location. Kentucky northern TN, mostly all snow. Heavy snow totals most of NC, upper SC ....major sleet and probably a narrow ice band , but intense in Atanta across northern Georgia and much of central SC." Read more on his FB page WXSouth

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