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6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Pretty remarkable how far they’ve moved m, and the differences at 500... all 3 of 00z... nam/GFS/GGEM... cake very strong and West.. not far from a good storm even to NYC

Must be that data sparse region near Alaska people were talking about.

 

New data gets ingested for all model runs now or just 0z/12z? (Maybe that's where the dropsonde data gets inputted?)

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Check out how the GFS has been trending (last 7 runs ending w/ today's 12Z) w/ the shortwave that is still over AK/BC, also note the subtle differences with the ridge over Cuba:

gfs.500hv_na.trend.gif.c1bf67c0a9ac2468e6a110875bfcb4e7.gif

This system is probably not done trending stronger yet. It appears the 96h 00Z UKMET has the low farther west than any other piece of guidance, so I'm guessing it is more amped/west despite not being able to perfectly interpolate between 72-96h. 

In my opinion, this is probably another rain event for NYC. Could be a really nice storm for the interior and perhaps a short-lived blizzard in New England. 

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Check out how the GFS has been trending (last 7 runs ending w/ today's 12Z) w/ the shortwave that is still over AK/BC, also note the subtle differences with the ridge over Cuba:

gfs.500hv_na.trend.gif.c1bf67c0a9ac2468e6a110875bfcb4e7.gif

This system is probably not done trending stronger yet. It appears the 96h 00Z UKMET has the low farther west than any other piece of guidance, so I'm guessing it is more amped/west despite not being able to perfectly interpolate between 72-96h. 

In my opinion, this is probably another rain event for NYC. Could be a really nice storm for the interior and perhaps a short-lived blizzard in New England. 

so if you are a snow lover in NYC you want that low to be more EAST am I correct ? Also as asked yesterday I think the Ukimet did a decent job with the last several events , am I mistaken  ?

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Great trends for NE and inland areas if you want snow, not so much near the coast.

On the 12z GFS verbatim, the s/w was stronger and slower out west and the lead s/w exited faster, resulting in higher heights out east and the s/w tilting negative faster. This allows the initial inland low to be stronger and hold on longer before the PVA hits the coast and initiates stronger cyclogenesis along the coast. 

Theres still 2 ways this can happen for the coast. The initial S/w is slower suppressing heights along the east coast and forcing the energy from the storm southward. This would likely result in a weaker storm at our latitude, but a colder one.

the second way is this things wraps up very quickly and you're able to get into a well developed wrap-around... those seemingly never work out though

edit: also the S/W is slower out west allowing for more spacing. This also results in a further west solution 

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17 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

so if you are a snow lover in NYC you want that low to be more EAST am I correct ? Also as asked yesterday I think the Ukimet did a decent job with the last several events , am I mistaken  ?

east might work, but the 12Z rgem/ggem is a scenario where dynamic cooling could overwhelm the warm boundary layer - this is dependent on precip becoming moderate to heavy as the low/trof transitions through. even then, snow would have trouble sticking despite it occurring pre-dawn.

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nice trends lately for inland areas, but the stronger low will mean more warm air on the coast and probably slush or rain for much of it there. Hopefully the end can snow for a little by me, enough to cover the ground anyway. 

Depends on where the low strengthens

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41 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

east might work, but the 12Z rgem/ggem is a scenario where dynamic cooling could overwhelm the warm boundary layer - this is dependent on precip becoming moderate to heavy as the low/trof transitions through. even then, snow would have trouble sticking despite it occurring pre-dawn.

I think this trends even further west, in fact far enough west to the point where even my area in Rockland County rains. The trend so far this winter, and the conditions haven’t changed at all, is storms moving west in the last 48 hours before they hit due to the WAR/+NAO influence. The Euro may have had it right 2 days ago when it was west and amped

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