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December 30, 2017 Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Overall upper air pattern, ensembles, and most ops now support a legit threat in this window. Post thoughts, discussion, model runs, maps, etc pertaining to this potential wintry weather here. I will narrow title date range when guidance comes in-line. Right now some faster than others. Normally I wouldnt make a dedicated thread this early, but when almost all guidance has the potential for *something*, chances are better than not that they are sniffing something out.

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I'm with you on this threat Ralph. with how bullish the ens look and the pattern we have in place, it seems very likely we get a storm in this time frame. the question to me is if it is going to be a Secs or mecs? there isn't really anything I look at right now and see a major red flag towards this being a miss. seems like Christmas now is trending towards an advisory event. good years tend to produce snow no matter what and the trend this year has been towards snow. won't be surprised of some places have their average for the year at the end of the month. in fact I was kind of banking on this in my winter forecast. most of the snow now through mid Jan. once the pattern changes I don't think we will get much more if any.

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12z gfs has better looking ridge and positioning out West. Continues to back off digging a trof over the Rockies which allows for less ridging upstream. -NAO looks better with -AO and +PNA "ridge bridge" connection. MECS this run.....widespread. All the major players on the KU checklist are there. Wish this were 24 hours out and not 7+ days. At least we know the potential is there for something classic....that is my takeaway for now.

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Most of our historic storms were actually well modeled in advance. will be interesting if this is the case. There are a lot of good indicators for a storm hit right now which is a great sign. Also with the qpf and widespread nature of the storm, there is much less room for a big swing as there isn't a tight gradient. I really think this is going to be a big hitter.

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SEPA looks to flip past 204, with most precip through the area.  This setup looks more plausible to me than the 12Z. although I do believe this run is taking the western low way to far north as the primary, so I'd expect a transfer a bit sooner with 850s crashing back.  Obviously still a LONG way to go

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I wouldnt get too invested in ops runs at this range as they will bounce all around with small nuances leading up to storm from run to run which have massive impacts farther out in time. GEFS are a thing of beauty tho. Actually thru their entire run. Probably best looking weenie ens mean I've seen in a long long time thru the entire run.

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0z EPS is the kind of stuff dreams are made of. Cold air source originating in Siberia comes across globe into E Canada funnelling into CAD/CCB look. Slp on mean near perfect transfer and positioning. -AO ridge bridge to western NAO region. Precip mean thru Saturday night on the 30th doubled for our region from 12z from .7" liquid thru the week to a little over 1.5" LE. Those are some robust numbers on a mean prog.....some BIG hitters on the individuals I would suspect. Real nice moisture transport look from several areas in play....Baja, quasi Pineapple connection, GOM, then Atlantic.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn into a crippling ice storm as we get closer. cold air will be in place but with the lack of a neg nao could see this taking a track that means ice. would be a historic ice storm imo I don't see a scenario at this time where the cold air wouldn't hold. this will be frozen one way or another.

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