Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormy said:

The NCEP has most of Va. in a moderate drought. I hope with every opportunity that it will break. Last 24 hrs. .08 rainfall when 48 hrs. previous projections were .60". 23% of normal precip. in December in Shenandoah Valley.

Significant snowfalls do not occur when in drought.

I pray it breaks next weekend.

No precipitation occurs when in a drought. That's kind of the idea of a drought. But most of our region is only in the lowest category. We have had a few months of below average qpf. Nothing drastic. Now NW VA is the dryest part of our region by far. And this is the dryest time of year too. That area only averages slightly over 2" qpf the while month. Being a little below is not unusual. One decent rain or snow is the difference between dry and normal this time of year. And they have had some bad luck to boot. So that specific location has been an anomaly within a general dry period and that may skew perception more. But we're not in some super drought region wide. Just a fairly typical dry period that happens frequently. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Fwiw, 18z NAVGEM much less suppressed and more amped looking. Good sign when this model is more amped. MAY prove the gfs is out to lunch. 00z will be interesting. 

Let us not forget that it nailed the December 9th storm at medium/long range. 

[frostbite_falls]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

The NCEP has most of Va. in a moderate drought. I hope with every opportunity that it will break. Last 24 hrs. .08 rainfall when 48 hrs. previous projections were .60". 23% of normal precip. in December in Shenandoah Valley.

Significant snowfalls do not occur when in drought.

I pray it breaks next weekend.

Give it a rest cuarenta.  Or provide some data to substantiate that “Significant snowfalls do not occur when in drought.”

[Cobalt]

Summary is that DT doesn't like the 18z GFS. If the 0z model suite shows trash, I wonder what DT will say

 

[osfan24]

More like summary, DT hates the GFS as a whole and hugs the Euro, not that I'm saying that isn't the way to go. Playing the percentages, Euro is usually going to win.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Summary is that DT doesn't like the 18z GFS. If the 0z model suite shows trash, I wonder what DT will say

 

Wonder what the run has to do with it?  18z is not another weather model.  It's a run that occurs like every other one every 6hrs.  Perplexing to me.  There are no off hour runs.  We put that to bed years ago I think

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, frostbite_falls said:

Give it a rest cuarenta.  Or provide some data to substantiate that “Significant snowfalls do not occur when in drought.”

Yea, saying it won't snow because of "drought" is silly. A half inch of qpf all snow is a significant storm. We average around 11" of qpf during met winter. If we get 50% of normal precip and half of that is snow almost all of us beat climo for the season. Lol. 

[stormy]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No precipitation occurs when in a drought. That's kind of the idea of a drought. But most of our region is only in the lowest category. We have had a few months of below average qpf. Nothing drastic. Now NW VA is the dryest part of our region by far. And this is the dryest time of year too. That area only averages slightly over 2" qpf the while month. Being a little below is not unusual. One decent rain or snow is the difference between dry and normal this time of year. And they have had some bad luck to boot. So that specific location has been an anomaly within a general dry period and that may skew perception more. But we're not in some super drought region wide. Just a fairly typical dry period that happens frequently. 

"No precipitation occurs when in a drought"  I am surprised at that comment. A drought is properly defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall". Hoff, you can do better than that. I have been impressed with your knowledge but you did yourself a disservice with that comment.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, PDIII said:

the main problem that I see is that we have been 6-8 days out for the last three days.

Wut? We've never been in the game until after Christmas. Wed was the earliest possible chance and we've been focused on thurs-sat as the window for longer than 3 days. We basically celebrated getting inside of 10 days a few days ago.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

"No precipitation occurs when in a drought"  I am surprised at that comment. A drought is properly defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall". Hoff, you can do better than that. I have been impressed with your knowledge but you did yourself a disservice with that comment.

He's like one of the smartest on the board and doesn't make comments that cause him disservice.  Maybe you don't understand his point.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, saying it won't snow because of "drought" is silly. A half inch of qpf all snow is a significant storm. We average around 11" of qpf during met winter. If we get 50% of normal precip and half of that is snow almost all of us beat climo for the season. Lol. 

Even 0.25 or even 0.2 qpf can be a significant snowfall if it's cold enough. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, stormy said:

"No precipitation occurs when in a drought"  I am surprised at that comment. A drought is properly defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall". Hoff, you can do better than that. I have been impressed with your knowledge but you did yourself a disservice with that comment.

 ok you win chicken little. Please continue.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

I’ve heard A few people say that that might be having a bigger effect then what you might think.

But why would other guidance have the sw? Dont they ingest the same data or lack the same data/raobs?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve heard A few people say that that might be having a bigger effect then what you might think.

But why would other guidance have the sw? Dont they ingest the same data or lack the same data/raobs?

That's what I'm wondering too...And as Bob Chill said, it's not like we're seeing a discrepancy with what the model does WITH the sw...it's the fact that it doesn't show up at all in the GFS. Now I don't know much about this, but what do you think when 4-5 other models have a feature yet another one doesn't?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fwiw, 18z NAVGEM much less suppressed and more amped looking. Good sign when this model is more amped. MAY prove the gfs is out to lunch. 00z will be interesting. 

Its not suppression city but Im not sure I consider that an "amped up" look.

[Ralph Wiggum]

[/url] Summary is that DT doesn't like the 18z GFS. If the 0z model suite shows trash, I wonder what DT will say  

He will still say it's trash. He hates that model....always has always will.

 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

42 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Fwiw, 18z NAVGEM much less suppressed and more amped looking. Good sign when this model is more amped. MAY prove the gfs is out to lunch. 00z will be interesting. 

Its not suppression city but Im not sure I consider that an "amped up" look.

TT won’t let me post it, too big of a file. With that said it is most definitely a trend in our favor comparing it to the 12z, where it shunted everything south and east of us. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017122312&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=123

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

True, but I don't like the gefs making the jump. 12z was different. Op sucked but gefs was a crushing. Now they both suck. I'm not married to any solution but I won't just toss and op+ens guidance because it's a bummer. The ukie hasn't been great either the last 2 runs. Always happy having the euro+eps on board of course. But until they all say the same thing for back to back runs we play the game. The gfs+gefs could be right. Deep down we all know this possibility is lurking.lol. 
Eta: we may be 6-8 days out frpm possible snow in our yards but the important pieces coming together are only about 4 days out. 

So this could be the 2nd epic mid/long range pattern projection this month that fails to produce? That would be a tough pill to swallow.

Didn't most of us get one decent event and some a couple minor ones from the last pattern. For mid December that is producing. Not every good pattern yields a HECS. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Didn't most of us get one decent event and some a couple minor ones from the last pattern. For mid December that is producing. Not every good pattern yields a HECS. 

Yes. I deleted that post because I agree it did produce some light events. Im just being greedy for a MECS :-)

[Wonderdog]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Didn't most of us get one decent event and some a couple minor ones from the last pattern. For mid December that is producing. Not every good pattern yields a HECS. 

True true. This is probably a reaction to the last few GFS runs that haven't been to kind to us. I know I have a habit of trusting 8-10 day leads on storms when I know that is a big mistake, no matter how good the pattern looks.

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 ok you win chicken little. Please continue.  

Thanks Hoff: I continue by respectfully saying that the drought developed in south central Virginia during November and spread north through Virginia now extending into central Maryland. Some seem to completely misunderstand my premise. I am not at all suggesting that it cannot snow during a drought!!  Historically, a drought always breaks. A heavy snow can break a drought. BUT, precipitation is more difficult during a drought, hence, abnormally low precipitation. The reasons are legion. Many pro. mets. say: "when in drought, leave it out" regarding precipitation. We can exhaust ourselves with the reasoning, fruitlessly. Last winter, I received abnormally low precipitation and only 4.5 inches of snow compared to my normal 24 inches of snow. The pattern so far this winter is reminiscent.  Perhaps, late next week will finally break the pattern.

 

[87storms]

it's difficult for me to listen to drought talk after the heavy rain shower that came through this evening.

[nj2va]

I don’t see this for the 18z run yet but there’s a NCEP site that compares the FV3 (future upgrade to GFS) vs current GFS - honestly I didn’t know about FV3 upgrade until I saw someone post about it on Twitter today.  While the 12z GFS is pretty much non existent with a coastal low next week & the possible Miller A the first week of January, the FV3 version has both coastals (albeit next week is too far east - the first week of January is a monster Miller A probably).  Not sure what/if anything this means but it’s interesting nonetheless and will be something to keep an eye on with future runs.  

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

[wkd]

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I don’t see this for the 18z run yet but there’s a NCEP site that compares the FV3 (future upgrade to GFS) vs current GFS - honestly I didn’t know about FV3 upgrade until I saw someone post about it on Twitter today.  While the 12z GFS is pretty much non existent with a coastal low next week & the possible Miller A the first week of January, the FV3 version has both coastals (albeit next week is too far east - the first week of January is a monster Miller A probably).  Not sure what/if anything this means but it’s interesting nonetheless and will be something to keep an eye on with future runs.  

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

Thanks for the link

[Bob Chill]

I know this means nothing...and it's the NAM @ hr84...but I'm not going to lie...I take just a tiny bit of comfort seeing the pac shortwave (that's basically absent on the GFS) @ hr84 entering the pac NW. LOL

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know this means nothing...and it's the NAM @ hr84...but I'm not going to lie...I take just a tiny bit of comfort seeing the pac shortwave (that's basically absent on the GFS) @ hr84 entering the pac NW. LOL

Funny. I alluded to this in the southeast forum. Would be a better looking setup than the gfs depiction comparing nam to the 18z gfs. More Euroish imo.? More comforting for sure.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know this means nothing...and it's the NAM @ hr84...but I'm not going to lie...I take just a tiny bit of comfort seeing the pac shortwave (that's basically absent on the GFS) @ hr84 entering the pac NW. LOL

We all look at it...some just don't admit it. 

[wkd]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know this means nothing...and it's the NAM @ hr84...but I'm not going to lie...I take just a tiny bit of comfort seeing the pac shortwave (that's basically absent on the GFS) @ hr84 entering the pac NW. LOL

 

I was also looking at the nam.  Noticed higher heights on the west coast at the end of the 00z run vs 78 hrs on the 18z run.  Don't know if it will translate to anything more favorable.

 

should have said 78 hrs. on 00z vs 84 hrs on 18z.

edit#2 - forget it. I don't know what I'm talking about

[Cobalt]

Honestly won't be too concerned if the GFS does the same thing. If I wake up to the entire 12z model suite being trash, I'll probably lose hope. We're still out n that range where even the the day of the event isn't fully narrowed down. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

it's difficult for me to listen to drought talk after the heavy rain shower that came through this evening.

I was out on another jebwalk this evening, and wouldnt you know it, I was nice and far from any building when that damn heavy shower hit. I thought all the rain was over.