Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Deck Pic]

How was the GFS. Someone texted me that it gives us a nice 4-8” event.  I’ll take it. 

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's never happened as far as I know and that in itself is a big flag. Not that it takes much explaining why a 60+ hour storm is unlikely. 

Pd2 was the longest duration I've seen and there was a lull between the overunning and coastal. Gfs had no lull whatsoever. Lol. Don't remember the duration of Pd2 specifically but it was close to 48 hours I think. 

I definitely remember some long duration events even with my fuzzy memory, but nothing like 66 hours. I’m sure it won’t go down like that, but super fun to even fathom. Either way—it’s fun just being in here to share in the building excitement with everyone. I hope we can bring this bad boy home.  Euro time yet? :-)

[Cobalt]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

How was the GFS. Someone texted me that it gives us a nice 4-8” event.  I’ll take it. 

More like a 24-28" event. No seriously. 66 hour event of moderate snow. I guess it's ok

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

How was the GFS. Someone texted me that it gives us a nice 4-8” event.  I’ll take it. 

Dryslot in SNE

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

More like a 24-28" event. No seriously. 66 hour event of moderate snow. I guess it's ok

He was being sarcastic

He knows what the GFS looked like

[midatlanticweather]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's never happened as far as I know and that in itself is a big flag. Not that it takes much explaining why a 60+ hour storm is unlikely. 

Pd2 was the longest duration I've seen and there was a lull between the overunning and coastal. Gfs had no lull whatsoever. Lol. Don't remember the duration of Pd2 specifically but it was close to 48 hours I think. 

Why not break a new record! LOL! Let's see what the King Euro Shows! 

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Why not break a new record! LOL! Let's see what the King Euro Shows! 

 

I'm just guessing it won't snow a 66 hour snow event.  But anything over 50 is ok

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I'm just guessing it won't snow a 66 hour snow event.  But anything over 50 is ok

I'm guessing you're being sarcastic, but IMO anything longer than 18 hours is a great event. Snows where you can go to sleep one night and wake up, and it's still snowing. 66 hours would be insane. I'd expect a ton of snow banding. Probably 2 or 3 times where we go from moderate to very heavy snow. Go to sleep, wake up, go to sleep, wake up, and still snowing is insane. 

[Jebman]

I am only gone a few short hours on an epic rain jebwalk, and you guys are discussing a truly LONG EPIC snow.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

I'm guessing you're being sarcastic, but IMO anything longer than 18 hours is a great event. Snows where you can go to sleep one night and wake up, and it's still snowing. 66 hours would be insane. I'd expect a ton of snow banding. Probably 2 or 3 times where we go from moderate to very heavy snow. Go to sleep, wake up, go to sleep, wake up, and still snowing is insane. 

Geez 12 would be nice.  Prefer long duration over total snow.  Just nice to watch it fall.  

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Geez 12 would be nice.  Prefer long duration over total snow.  Just nice to watch it fall.  

Only thing that matches long duration is a very heavy snow event. Something like Feb 12-14 where both ends of the storm were heavy snows. Only when you mix long duration and heavy snow you get HECS. 

[Scraff]

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am only gone a few short hours on an epic rain jebwalk, and you guys are discussing a truly LONG EPIC snow.

You can have epic 66 hour Jebwalks in the rain as well. Just bring your shovel and scoop up puddles as you go....

[Bob Chill]

Other than Dec 09 when DCA totalled 16", the last double digit Dec was 1973 @ 11". Big Decembers don't come often in these parts. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than Dec 09 when DCA totalled 16", the last double digit Dec was 1973 @ 11". Big Decembers don't come often in these parts. 

And if I'm not mistaken, DCA broke the all time December snowfall record in that storm alone (plus a bit of snow Dec 5th)

[RichmondTarHeel]

Euro starts up at 1:30am, right?

I won’t get my hopes up until I see a BobChill shocked face emoji post

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Euro starts up at 1:30am, right?

I won’t get my hopes up until I see a BobChill shocked face emoji post

Euro already started around 12:55... should be in range in a few

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Euro starts up at 1:30am, right?

I won’t get my hopes up until I see a BobChill shocked face emoji post

Already out to 96, wants nothing to do with a southern stream.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Already out to 96, wants nothing to do with a southern stream.

Looks pretty good by 126. Better than 12z

[Amped]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Looks pretty good by 126. Better than 12z

Yeah it looks good, just not like the GFS

[yoda]

144 looks nice I think 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah it looks good, just not like the GFS

Not even close to the gfs but I didn't expect it to. Euro is amplifying the lead wave this time so that is a big difference from 12z. 

[psuhoffman]

Looks kind of anemic to me at 144. Hopefully I'm wrong. Way less amplified then gfs. Yes the lead wave is better then 12z which squashed it totally but it's not holding back as much for wave 2. My fear would be a even split and neither does much from the look 

[Amped]

168, low OTS  norlun troff hanging back.  No room for second wave to amplify. That ended fast

 

Edit: Second wave still off oregon.  It may give us a couple inches.  But the lead S/W killed it. There was a similar setup with an ots storm in Feb 2014.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks kind of anemic to me at 144. Hopefully I'm wrong. Way less amplified then gfs. Yes the lead wave is better then 12z which squashed it totally but it's not holding back as much for wave 2. My fear would be a even split and neither does much from the look 

Yea, pretty disappointing on the lead wave like that. I know what mitch is going to say....looks like the ukie. Lol

[psuhoffman]

Yea it's a crap run for here. Nice snow southeast va. A couple inches up into D.C.  Pretty much nothing where I am. It amplified the lead wave just enough to prevent anything else but not enough to do much itself. Just one op run. More interested in EPS when i wake up. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea it's a crap run for here. Nice snow southeast va. A couple inches up into D.C.  Pretty much nothing where I am. It amplified the lead wave just enough to prevent anything else but not enough to do much itself. Just one op run. More interested in EPS when i wake up. 

Yeah, more interested in the ensembles. Good thing is every Op run in the past 2 days has shown some snow for DC

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Cobalt said:

I wasn't alive back then. What happened during Jan 1987? 

I am no meteorologist and I cannot explain meteorological setups like you, PSU, mitchnick and Chill can.

All I know is that on Jan 22, 1987, I was only 23. I was a marathon jebwalker back then. I walked all day long in that snow.

We were forecast to receive 3 to 6 inches of snow, which is why i got up at 430am to go on a jebwalk. By 7am we already had 2 inches. By noon it was already over 6 inches and the sky was dark, the northeast wind was driving the snow in and we KNEW we were in for what today we would refer to as a HECS. I happily jebwalked across the Potomac Mills region, down to US 1 and then north, then south, then north, then south. I was blasting songs on my walkman, I was already well practiced about blasting music on jebwalks even at that day. As the heavy snows continued, I was beside myself with joy and started up my trademark signature run in the snow! I loved to act all dramatic and walk backwards as though "the wind was too cold" or as though I was being "blinded by torrential snow". That was a bunch of bosh, I'd be right at home in a Mount Washington blizzard at altitude, with zero degree ambient temperatures and high winds and truly torrential snow rates. I was out on that epic snow jebwalk all day and much of the night. The snow piled up and piled up. I think it was in the 20s all day. This was 30 years ago lol. That night I got my snow shoveling fix. then the next day I got to dig snow all day, and the next......... We got 14 inches in Dale City.

Then I believe it was 4 days later, we got walloped again with another 10 inches. I was jebwalking in the snow and digging the snow, and rolling around in it at 3am in the morning each night when I thought everyone was asleep. I would sneak and roll around in snowdrifts in other people's yards in the middle of the night. I got away with that a LOT. I know, I'm pure evil. I am extremely selfish and I think ONLY of myself, and FAR greedier than the Clintons, the Bilderbergers and the Rothschilds when it comes to snow, and I did savor rolling around on other people's rightful snowdrifts on many a cold winter's night. I got to dig so much snow, I was in heaven. No one ever found out I was the cretin who was trampling other people's snowdrifts in Woodbridge ESPECIALLY during the Winter of 1986-87, until now. It's been 30 years now and no one cares. Its only snow, after all.

That was one of the best times in my entire life, getting all that snow inside a week then getting to jebwalk in it, getting to dig snow til my arms were about to break off, and casually walking on and rolling in snowdrifts in yards at 230am many nights. However 2009-2010 was better, the incredible winter of 1995-96 was very snowy, and 2013-2014 was beyond fun. These days, I am so old that I stick to walking in my own yard. I do occasionally sneak and demolish snowdrifts in places other than private yards, such as a deep drift I discovered in 95-96 at the Rec Center. No one knew it was there, I had it all to myself, I was wallowing in it many a night. Of course, I told no one. What do you think I am, unselfish?

I want ALL the snow! The BEST drifts are the ones that form over low places. They can get quite deep. There is nothing as exquisitely satisfying, as finding a deep drift of pristine powder snow, and walking in it, rolling in it, and then just laying there, breathing in real deep of pure Siberian air, with dewpoints near negative 10 degrees, and just looking at all of the snow around you, imagining that you are deep in the Northwest Territories or at altitude in the Brooks Range with meters of snow in every direction for hundreds of untracked miles! I have enjoyed kicking back deep in a drift of pure pow, watching a northerly wind blowing snow all over!

I dont like the snow.

I effin' WORSHIP SNOW and extreme cold, to the utter exclusion of everything and everyone else. Nothing else matters.

[psuhoffman]

Euro clears the deck though by not developing the day 7 system so it's ready to drop the hammer around (wait for it)...day 10. 

[poolz1]

Somehow we still get smoked...it just wants to snow sometime late next week..

[psuhoffman]

Which it totally possible but one thing I've loved about the last few ensemble runs is the members that miss with the dec 29th thing then mostly hit something a few days later. Few members manage to miss on everything. Lots of options and paths to a win in this pattern. Not one and done.