Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Big phase over center of the country still not good for the snow purists out there. Only reason this run started better than 18z was increased confluence out ahead initially. A big phase solution will quickly boot that HP over Canada to the east. 12z GFS was really the best case scenario I’ve seen. Still a lot on the front end with this iteration but for those looking to avoid rain, this run ain’t it. Very close to a clean transfer where we what it. For 7 days leads we'll continue with multiple iterations but this run was a trend towards a flatter solution. Has that kind of feel but that's just my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I’ll add that I agree with others that have said earlier that the persistence forecaster would go with the less phased, less amped scenarios, as that has been the pattern so far this cold season. Which would overall be better for most, if you want all snow (or at least no rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Very close to a clean transfer where we what it. For 7 days leads we'll continue with multiple iterations but this run was a trend towards a flatter solution. Has that kind of feel but that's just my gut. Definitely plenty of time to change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 For 7 days out, having the GFS show 6" of snow consistently for 24 hours is pretty good. Although the ensembles should be weighted like 10x more, the GFS showing snow consistently is a nice addition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CMC is a swing and a miss. Completely different look than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The IR is a beaut, Clarke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Cmc starting to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The cold chasing the storm has been pretty consistently impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Cmc ejects 2 pieces and suppresses the first. Another viable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Is that the same lp that jogs back toward the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Would love to see the ridge axis out west centered over Idaho and not Washington state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 The GFS is just a crush job out here. That is the perfect Shen Valley bomb. We snow hard, a foot plus, then dry slot. I would take that run all day long. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I thought the transfer would occur about six hours sooner than it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 850mb low tries to go over Lake Eerie. Finally it reforms in the gulf of ME. A lot of SE winds and strong WAA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Very concerned with the CMC’s depiction. Seems to have the hot hand lately with some of the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gefs looked pretty good. A lot more coastal jumpers at a decent or not terrible latitude. 18z didn't have that cluster and it's the most prominent one now. My hunch might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs looked pretty good. A lot more coastal jumpers at a decent or not terrible latitude. 18z didn't have that cluster and it's the most prominent one now. My hunch might be right. GEFS through hr 240 is the best so far. Looking at individual members, less rain options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs looked pretty good. A lot more coastal jumpers at a decent or not terrible latitude. 18z didn't have that cluster and it's the most prominent one now. My hunch might be right. I think we have a chance at some wintry precip late next week. All we can say for now. Taking the cautious approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I don't like coastal jumpers as the tend to leave dry slots in between. I am in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I don't like coastal jumpers as the tend to leave dry slots in between. I am in between. Not these kinds. It's a hybrid and would be juiced up good as it approaches. The crappy ones are the dry northern stream ones that don't get going good until off the coast. The one we're seeing now are good hits well before a transfer and no lull or dryslot if the primary doesn't get into WV. This is a nice panel here. 18z had nothing of the sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: CAD still holding up at 0z Saturday. Kinda CAD not holding for RIC. Looks like 35 and rain. Remember, we are not all part of the DC & NVA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, ATreglown said: CAD not holding for RIC. Looks like 35 and rain. Remember, we are not all part of the DC & NVA area. I meant in general. It is still holding up but has clear signs of breaking down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEFS through 240: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not these kinds. It's a hybrid and would be juiced up good as it approaches. The crappy ones are the dry northern stream ones that don't get going good until off the coast. The one we're seeing now are good hits well before a transfer and no lull or dryslot if the primary doesn't get into WV. This is a nice panel here. 18z had nothing of the sort. My mistake. I was thinking the normal jumpers. Temps are another matter I suppose. Waiting for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Damn, gefs has a miller a signal around Jan 5th. That's way out there and it's obvious on the panels. I laughed at the op having basically 3 similar systems in a row and it has ensemble support. Lol. Wtf. Weeniest gefs run I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I meant in general. It is still holding up but has clear signs of breaking down No worries. Just, RIC always seems to be left out due to very few members in this area. It is what it is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: My mistake. I was thinking the normal jumpers. Temps are another matter I suppose. Waiting for Euro Don't worry about temps. Focus on track. A good track and temps are good. A west track is what screws us at some point. Gefs supports a great track. My biggest and only worry is no storm at all. If there's precip we're getting winter wx. All rain is the least likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Crazy impressive members on the 00z GEFS....insane snowfall mean. A wintry period seeming very likely. This is what makes this hobby great...may not pan out but the chase is great...especially if this pattern delivers to it's potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.