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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure I buy the west/cutter solutions though. Worst case maybe a slight move before we see it Miller B to the coast.The models have been over playing the dump into the SW forcing ridging in front of the system. My biggest fear at this point is suppression and I am starting to feel a little better about that from what i am seeing on the runs.

Seasonal trend, and one that fits for Nina's, is to dampen out the s/w's.  Trend has been toward more progressive, less amplified flow, with a weaker southwest trough and weaker southeast ridge than what mid and long range progs have shown.  Which is just one reason the Euro looks kooky.  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Seasonal trend, and one that fits for Nina's, is to dampen out the s/w's.  Trend has been toward more progressive, less amplified flow, with a weaker southwest trough and weaker southeast ridge than what mid and long range progs have shown.  Which is just one reason the Euro looks kooky.  

Yeah, not so sure of the "double pump" the Euro is throwing out there, though it is an interesting solution to be sure.  One indication that's been showing up with this is the good moisture fetch/flow into the cold air; so perhaps even a less amplified wave can give us a solid event (caveat being, of course, that the best moisture flow occurs most in the more amplified solutions!).

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I've got no complaints about the EPS 500mb evolution, that's for sure.  Day 6-10 looks beautiful.  -EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA/50-50 and a shortwave dropping through.  

Big spread in there. The good thing is that overall it supports winter wx. The bad thing is there is no clarity on how things evolve after Christmas. 

A bit of a pattern change on the horizon at the end of the run. PV retreats poleward so for now the -AO appears transient at best. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Big spread in there. The good thing is that overall it supports winter wx. The bad thing is there is no clarity on how things evolve after Christmas. 

A bit of a pattern change on the horizon at the end of the run. PV retreats poleward so for now the -AO appears transient at best. 

Yeah, it seemed to follow the Op in the sense that there's obviously some timing variations in there.  The run in general was drier as well compared to 0z, which also maybe follows the Op.  A wintry pattern regardless, but tougher to pinpoint a single date for a big event. Looks like this run favored the 30th whereas previous EPS and the GEFS point a day earlier.  

 

Very end of the run the pattern goes to pot, but that's been changing.  All that probably means is that the weeklies will suck ;-P

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21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, it seemed to follow the Op in the sense that there's obviously some timing variations in there.  The run in general was drier as well compared to 0z, which also maybe follows the Op.  A wintry pattern regardless, but tougher to pinpoint a single date for a big event. Looks like this run favored the 30th whereas previous EPS and the GEFS point a day earlier.  

 

Very end of the run the pattern goes to pot, but that's been changing.  All that probably means is that the weeklies will suck ;-P

It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. 

I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead.  An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble...

KDCA_2017122112_forecast_EPS_360.png

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. 

I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead.  An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble...

9 days straight below freezing at DCA?  Not sure I've ever seen that before.  

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. 

I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead.  An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble...

KDCA_2017122112_forecast_EPS_360.png

 

 

That 62 degrees on Saturday is sure going to throw some people into a false sense of warmth around the holidays after the last 2 years. Tehehehe....suckers!  

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1 minute ago, das said:

9 days straight below freezing at DCA?  Not sure I've ever seen that before.  

For folks who waste enormous amounts of time looking at weather models every year...that chart is kinda mind blowing. Weather isn't static like those means show so reality will be more up and down but we're probably going to have some memorable cold days coming up...hopefully with 6" of snow and a foot of ice. 

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I second what Bob and others are saying. The clarity of the evolution of things post X-mas is uncertain. I think the difference in each model is a result of how things play out in the Pacific with each short-wave crashing into the coast. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but where those short-waves originate can't be a good source for initialization data. Therefore it may take some time for the models to key in on certain waves. 

What I am in love with today is that block over the Hudson showing up. That is formed in result of the ULL heading into 50/50 position. The cold air has no choice but to filter in the CONUS. 

All we can ask for at this range is the potential with this pattern. Anyone expecting run to run consistency in all the models with timing and strength of any storm is just wishful thinking. 

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It was a little drier overall but not enough to be a meaningful signal. Fits the narrative of sheared/weaker winning versus uber amped precip bombs. Weaker solutions have more wiggle room and probably serve us better either way. 

I say this every day but the EPS went colder AGAIN. Right through to the end with the coldest reading all the way out @ d13. There aren't even any warm outliers so the range is really tight for the lead.  An 11 degree mean low temp at 13-14 day leads is something that I don't think I've ever seen on any ensemble...

KDCA_2017122112_forecast_EPS_360.png

 

 

Xmas on is shaping to be an amazing time. Add some snow cover, and maybe one of the airports could register a single digit or near zero temperature

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Long time lurker first time poster.  My take away from the guidance is we are entering primetime climo with our major models predicting well below normal temps and average to above average precipitation.  This winter has shown that the models haven't locked in on specific threats until 48-72 hours out.  I think we are in for a wild ride.  Thanks to all the big name posters on this forum for making my winter weather weenie hobby so enjoyable.  Cheers!

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49 minutes ago, das said:

9 days straight below freezing at DCA?  Not sure I've ever seen that before.  

The last time, I think, was 12/16/89-12/25/89 (10 days). I don't think there's been any since, but that's just going off of checking the cold stretches I can remember. The end of 1/04 came pretty close, but there was a one day interruption in the midst of an 8-day stretch. 

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2 hours ago, Amped said:

N and W burbs are pretty bad during Ice Stoms.  2013-2014 took quite a toll on the trees here. This storm would be rather serious even in the cities cause it starts supercold. Only good thing is we'll probably warm into the upper 40s once the wind shifts to the west, but the damage maybe done by that time.

I LOVE ice. I'd be out on another tremendously spectacular ice jebwalk while everyone else would be layin' around screaming and crying dolorously with smashed up legs, backs and hips. I would also be treated to the sweet music of tires spinning making that wonderful high pitched whining as hapless drivers try to get out of their driveways, fail, then get out of their cars in a huff, only to fall HARD on the solid icepack and smash their hips to hell. This is an excellent way to finish up 2017 and start out the New Year!

 

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I LOVE ice. I'd be out on another tremendously spectacular ice jebwalk while everyone else would be layin' around screaming and crying dolorously with smashed up legs, backs and hips. I would also be treated the sweet music of tires spinning making that wonderful high pitched whining as hapless drivers try to get out of their driveways, fail, then get out of their cars in a huff, only to fall HARD on the solid icepack and smash their hips to hell.
 

One for the record books.
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I'm all in if we can get significant frozen with a following deep freeze to keep snowcover as long as possible. IMO, the true measure of a "feels good" winter is snowcover duration. That's what makes it feel like we actually had a winter SEASON (vs a general disastrous season interrupted by a one-hit wonder a la Jan 2016 with RAIN a few days later), and that's what makes 13-14 so special.

Sure, I love me some HECSy action as much as anyone, but if I had to pick, I'd rather have consistent snowcover for multiple weeks across met winter. When Jebman gets tired of winning and walking, that's a good winter in my book!

Temp trends continue to look impressive, and I'm hoping the next round of runs backs off the ice threat. Ice is pretty to look at, but epic tree and property damage I could do without.

 

  

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