Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

Euro is looking reallllly juice at 216h. At first it looked like it would be a quick punch at 192h and then out to sea, but there's a second slug of moisture. Don't know how temps will evolve in this second system. The important thing to me is that we've had two GFS runs, two GEFS runs, and now the Euro all keying into some serious action starting in the 192h range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, Cobalt said:

I should've been more specific, I was talking about the signal for a storm being impressive, but I guess the GFS was the only impressive one. Euro is still strung out mess as mentioned.

Right, so maybe the lesson here is to let the run finish before commenting whether it is impressive or not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Euro gives us a full day of ice in the second event, lol.

There's another theme from the last few days.  So 2 things are clear, strung-out mess and epic ice event, somewhere in the central or eastern US.  We'll know the details in another 10-15 euro runs, stay tuned  Tune back in later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. 

That's not a bad scenario, the ice saves us...though it's tough to realize prolonged ice in these parts.  We don't do CAD well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. 

I'd take that honestly. The ice part would be remembered for a while if happened like advertised

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

So the recap is 2-5" of snow with the southern zones winning that piece. Then over .5" of ice before frigid temps invade. I'm pretty good with that outcome. All frozen and would be remembered for a long time. Interested in what brand new and unique solution comes out in 12 hours. 

Very interesting.  Any indication of how much below freezing we are during the ice part?  I know it's perhaps a bit much to parse those details right now, but I was just curious, since ice potential has been a threat for this event all along in varying degrees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reminder that the couple 'perfect' solutions are likely not going to pan out and best to temper expectations. Pattern looks good for frozen but you can see many options are on the table. I dont see the consistency that some are touting on the models. Solutions like the CMC quick hitting SECS to GFS elongated train of snow HECS to Euro in several very different real-weather waves all on the table, to the JMA that phases out west and is a brief thump to rain to dry slot. It is going to be a roller coaster week. Ens the way to go for now. With that said, setup looks solid on GEPS and GEFS.....EPS should be fun to look at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Very interesting.  Any indication of how much below freezing we are during the ice part?  I know it's perhaps a bit much to parse those details right now, but I was just curious, since ice potential has been a threat for this event all along in varying degrees.

wx.graphics is stuck at D9-9.25, but when the (2nd?) storm gets going (which may be snow and not ice to start), surface temps are upper 10s and low 20s.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Very interesting.  Any indication of how much below freezing we are during the ice part?  I know it's perhaps a bit much to parse those details right now, but I was just curious, since ice potential has been a threat for this event all along in varying degrees.

Changeover starts at 25 degrees, and then warps DC up to near 32, and in fact most of the region to near or below freezing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

N and W burbs are pretty bad during Ice Stoms.  2013-2014 took quite a toll on the trees here. This storm would be rather serious even in the cities cause it starts supercold. Only good thing is we'll probably warm into the upper 40s once the wind shifts to the west, but the damage maybe done by that time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

wx.graphics is stuck at D9-9.25, but when the (2nd?) storm gets going (which may be snow and not ice to start), surface temps are upper 10s and low 20s.  

Temps are great during ice onset. As depicted it would no doubt be the biggest ice storm we've seen in a long time. The second piece would have some snow and pl before going all zr so between the 2 waves it's a combo of every type of winter wx we can get. lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really bizarre evolution. Interesting end product though. 

Yeah, I guess (although I've been stuck at D9.25 for like 20 mins), but it's just too strange to give it any thought really.  I guess I'll take a positive that even such a screwy evolution gets us a memorable 3.5 day period.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Reminder that the couple 'perfect' solutions are likely not going to pan out and best to temper expectations. Pattern looks good for frozen but you can see many options are on the table. I dont see the consistency that some are touting on the models. Solutions like the CMC quick hitting SECS to GFS elongated train of snow HECS to Euro in several very different real-weather waves all on the table, to the JMA that phases out west and is a brief thump to rain to dry slot. It is going to be a roller coaster week. Ens the way to go for now. With that said, setup looks solid on GEPS and GEFS.....EPS should be fun to look at.

Not sure I buy the west/cutter solutions though. Worst case maybe a slight move north before we see it Miller B to the coast.The models have been over playing the dump into the SW forcing ridging in front of the system. My biggest fear at this point is suppression and I am starting to feel a little better about that from what i am seeing on the runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...