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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Ralph, as some have stated though, some of our biggest storms have had great run to run consistency with one another when they are big dogs! Time will tell. 

This is true, in general.  Though the next week event has been a bit all over the place, the setup for something has been there for awhile.

Not comparing this in any way at this point, but off the top of my head 3 of the biggest events I experienced here that had (relatively) long lead indications consistently are PD-II (it seemed clear ~5 or so days out we were in for a major overrunning event), Feb. 5-6, 2010 (close to a week out the setup was there), and the Jan. 2016 blizzard (the Saturday before, I distinctly recall all models "locking in" to a big one).

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:
Ralph, as some have stated though, some of our biggest storms have had great run to run consistency with one another when they are big dogs! Time will tell. 

Im on board. Not being one ounce negative. Just stating a 'perfect' scenario is rather elusive. Nobody should be expecting that. CMC shows what could go "wrong"(?) and how we still end up with a SECS. Very optimistic tho.....all players look to be on the field.

Really far out in time. It' great to see but the looks will change  alot over the next several days. What really has me excited is the snowfall mean on the esembles.  For our good snows usually we see this happen out in time and continue and improve on the good look as we close in. There's A lot to like the next 2 weeks.

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

these are pretty good runs. If verified, i will be ready for the 90 degrees mid January warm up

It really is a Feb 2010 type of progression. Gets started different in the west but what happens east of the MS river reminds me very much of Feb 2010. 

This will be a good test of the big ones locking in early. We're still on the outer fringe of time. If models are locked in by Sunday then it's time to fasten some seatbelts. 

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This is true, in general.  Though the next week event has been a bit all over the place, the setup for something has been there for awhile.
Not comparing this in any way at this point, but off the top of my head 3 of the biggest events I experienced here that had (relatively) long lead indications consistently are PD-II (it seemed clear ~5 or so days out we were in for a major overrunning event), Feb. 5-6, 2010 (close to a week out the setup was there), and the Jan. 2016 blizzard (the Saturday before, I distinctly recall all models "locking in" to a big one).
Add Jan 1996 to that list.
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load.  But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics?

Banter...delete this garbage. Who is this guy?

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load.  But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics?

Classic setup for a Mid Atlantic storm.  50/50, High to our north, -NAO, -AO, STJ pumping moisture straight at us.  Coastal transfers from TN off the coast.  Buckle up.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Somebody help me out. I’m down in Mexico and have a Weak ass connection and can’t get the. Board to load.  But I’m gathering from the amount of rapid reply notifications that something is up. Gfs update without graphics?

GFS dropped the big dig idea in the west and looks like a classic sw exiting the rockies with a -ao/nao/50-50 in place. SLP track into western TN and off the coast. 1-2' snow totals in our area with temps in the teens and low 20's. Mix line is so far away that we don't even need to talk about it. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS dropped the big dig idea in the west and looks like a classic sw exiting the rockies with a -ao/nao/50-50 in place. SLP track into western TN and off the coast. 1-2' snow totals in our area with temps in the teens and low 20's. Mix line is so far away that we don't even need to talk about it. 

Lame. Next 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

you and me are 2 sick pups    lol

Storms like this are like heroin and crack bundled together but no physical withdrawal....only mental....

The CMC could be right as well with weaker smaller pieces ejecting separately but no sign of a west track. My guess is the euro comes north from it's solution last night. Everything right now is yelling big storm potential. No two ways around that. GEFS should be fun. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Storms like this are like heroin and crack bundled together but no physical withdrawal....only mental....

The CMC could be right as well with weaker smaller pieces ejecting separately but no sign of a west track. My guess is the euro comes north from it's solution last night. Every right now is yelling big storm potential. No two ways around that. GEFS should be fun. 

Honestly, for the first time in my life I was excited when I saw last night's GEFS and EPS snow mean. First time I can recall those numbers was before 2/10 and the last time 1/16.

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Honestly, for the first time in my life I was excited when I saw last night's GEFS and EPS snow mean. First time I can recall those numbers was before 2/10 and the last time 1/16.

GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. 

Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

these are pretty good runs. If verified, i will be ready for the 90 degrees mid January warm up

A great run and I'd love it if the timing stayed as is! Get the storm in here on Friday and start clean up over the weekend so I can fly off to California as planned first thing Monday morning, Jan 1!

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Storms like this are like heroin and crack bundled together but no physical withdrawal....only mental....

The CMC could be right as well with weaker smaller pieces ejecting separately but no sign of a west track. My guess is the euro comes north from it's solution last night. Everything right now is yelling big storm potential. No two ways around that. GEFS should be fun. 

Too bad Cobalt is asleep

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Now this is 10+ day so take it for what it's worth, which isn't much. But the GFS is probably showing another big dog (day 11/12) following up our weekend storm though it is showing a hot mess at this time. GFS is continually trying to dump the trough surges in the longer ranges into the southwest and yet in the closer ranges is taking it south and east. We are seeing it occur now out west where the trough is surging SE at this moment instead of into the southwest as originally modeled. And we are seeing the GFS doing it once again with the surge leading into next weekends possible storm. The GFS has now backed off the SW dump in the longer range and is now bringing the surge south and east in model land. If the GFS holds to form it isn't unreasonable to expect the same to happen with surge we see proceeding the day 11/12 storm. So instead of seeing that dump into the southwest, if we were actually to see that moving SE that hot mess at day 11/12 becomes a potential big dog. Again we are talking 10+ days away.

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GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. 
Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it.
I've seen hemispheric upper air maps posted in the past that contain a list of analog setups and dates. Does anyone have this plot or a link to it for this potential system? I would assume there are some classics on there. Tia.
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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. 
Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it.

I've seen hemispheric upper air maps posted in the past that contain a list of analog setups and dates. Does anyone have this plot or a link to it for this potential system? I would assume there are some classics on there. Tia.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php

Sorry posted wrong one. Bobs got the right one below.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
GEFS snow mean is screwy. If you look at the actual solutions from the members you'll see a disconnect between snow on the maps and rain on the panels. I really do hate snow maps for reasons like this. However, the GEFS did have a cluster of traditional tracks instead of west up to Pittsburgh. 
Storms like this should have better accuracy on ops at longer leads but I'm talking d5-6. We're not there yet. Jan 2016 is the only lock in I've seen from d7+. Feb 2010 was close to a long lead lock in (especially the first one) but still d5-6 before we were really feeling it.

I've seen hemispheric upper air maps posted in the past that contain a list of analog setups and dates. Does anyone have this plot or a link to it for this potential system? I would assume there are some classics on there. Tia.

CPC super ensemble. D8+ doesn't show that many big analogs but the correlation score is really low so confidence in any analog on the list is low:

 

ETA: link is embedding yesterday's map. Here's the link to d8+

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

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