Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Struggling to find an analog. March 1960 is close, but this is a big storm in the south too. Best fantasy storm of the year so far. I imagine in some parallel universe we get clobbered by both the 29th-31st event and that event. I want to live in that parallel universe honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Before we focus on the 31th event, there's also the potential of an event on the 28th or 29th. The GEFS snow mean through that time is rather impressive, and the individual members haven't come out yet, but I bet they lend some support for it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS snow mean is wacko. Obviously 1 80" member skewing the mean. Not even to 16 days out yet! I wasn't fully wrong, with e17 showing 24-40" of snow for DC and points W and SW, but keep in mind that not a single member shuts us out through new years snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Definitely an uptick in gefs support for what the gfs op is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Definitely an uptick in gefs support for what the gfs op is thinking. GFS is my deepest fear for this event. Knowing that the GFS has been ok so far this winter, and knowing that this setup can potentially go this way, especially with the amount of uncertainty of the event given this far out. I guess I'll stick with my snow weenie side and trust what DT says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 UKMET is not buying the GFS idea. Has a ridge axis over the west coast at 144, and maybe a weak overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GEFS is pretty hopeful through D15. Not one member has 2" or less for DC. 15/20 members have 6" or more of snow. And then there's that one member (e17) which basically gives us nearly our all time snow record for DC within 10 days, and has over almost 10" of precip. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is well to our South glad we have consensus growing Still good though, since it's basically the complete opposite of the GFS, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Another reason to trust the ensembles, especially when the ops don't know what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Signal is better. 2-3" for 24 hours is a pretty decent signal 8 days out Mean goes up almost 5" from 28th-31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 EPS mean through d15 could be the biggest tease ever. Unless if happens, of course According to the EPS, we have a 50-60% chance of 6" or more of snow Not one EPS member shuts us out through day 15 either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'll take e26 verbatim please, for about 20 inches of snow. I'd be good on climo and would need no more on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 As a warminista, I hope that the Jan 3-4 GFS fantasy is unfulfilled. When it gets closer, there will be time to prepare if it's still predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The city panels can show the real picture. What an absolutely beautiful EPS run. By just looking at it, precip jumps .7” between the 28th and the 1st. Crazy signal this far out. Also, take a look at that cold at the end of the run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS looks better through the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Changes for next week on GFS....it is starting to wake up or at least toss and turn in bed. Ridge closer to West Coast, less attempt at a phase out West with subsequent ridge in East now nowhere near as pumped as last runs. Eta: thru 174hr looks better...enough of a move up til then to say it was a shift toward the better. Not there yet but give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z run it'll show a big hit for us. Not trying to do a Chuck one liner, I believe that it will. Keeps on trending South towards what the Euro was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Cold press is a lot better this run through 180, expect more frozen for the late week event than yesterday’s runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Imagine this 2" per hour snow rates to the north, while crippling ice storm in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Classic gfs error trying to phase over the 4-corners/Rockies. I expect that particular look to change as lead time shortens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If you want to be productive today....dont look at the snow panels for 12/29..... Better CAD signal showing up as well...to bad there's no H to the north to hold it. Cant happen as modeled, but It did trend south so thats what i was looking for. Lots of calls for reservations to Panic Hotel being made... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Imagine this 2" per hour snow rates to the north, while crippling ice storm in DC Don’t look at the snow maps, they’re NSFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Per the 6z GFS, I won’t have any power to watch the ball drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6z GFS is a funky run indeed. Would be cool to see happen, but won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Much better look .Cold really hold ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Don’t look at the snow maps, they’re NSFW. Pretty sure it takes all of the sleet/ice and adds it as snow. Still would be 6"+ for DC if this setup happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If that didnt eventually taint and flip, that is a BECS with widespread 3-4' lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: If that didnt eventually taint and flip, that is a BECS with widespread 3-4' lol What does the "B" mean in BECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: What does the "B" mean in BECS? Biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Coastal redevelopment trying to take over at 234+.....in the name of all that is sacred please sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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