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December 24-25 Snow Potential


Hoosier

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Well, we have the GFS as a lingering holdout, but most other models are indicating the potential for something during this time from near/north of the Ohio River up into parts of WI/MI.  Kinda early to get into amounts but if the consensus verifies, could see an area of a few to possibly several inches especially with decent ratios.

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12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

What a Christmas treat this would be if it came true. Especially after deep snow vanishing the past 3 days. The timing is something you usually see in a fictional tv movie. Of course plenty of time for it to change for better or worse.

This is what makes it so intriguing to watch.

I agree that some changes are still possible. The main vort was still partially off-shore for the 12z runs this morning so I expect some more changes by 00z.

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As of Wed. evening IND has low confidence forecast of less than 2" of snow for Christmas but are at least mentioning the possibility of a midweek storm as indicated above.  But these GFS modeled storms seem to come and go like ripples in a stream.  Need more consistency within and model agreement with others before I can get really concerned.

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I just joined f5weather tonight and was able to look at gem and euro. They both remarkably are in good agreement. Have a pretty robust wave riding up the baroclinic zone. The precip shield even had a nice deformation zone look to it. Euro had slightly more qpf but in general both models had 2-4in of snow running from central MO to central IL and across a good portion of Indiana and Ohio. This system will be limited because of moisture but high LSR's would compensate. I know gem has a bad track record but with euro showing this to I'm more keen to believe it

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14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Despite the GFS and GEFS not biting on this one yet, there was a pretty good signal on the 12z Euro Ensemble today. A majority of the members had light to moderate qpf.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

00z NAM not playing ball, so we may be setting up the ol American/foreign model camps if things remain status quo on this cycle.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM not playing ball, so we may be setting up the ol American/foreign model camps if things remain status quo on this cycle.

Crazy how that works sometimes. I think it is def possible given the energy aloft and a sharp baroclinic zone. Gfs aka goofus has been doing a lot of radical shifts lately. Hard to trust it

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