Christmas Day Miracle

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle?

Actually pretty cold. Def colder than American guidance. Hard to tell with the cruddy limited data but going by 850mb and the sfc track it is prob not far off from euro of last night. 

[wxeyeNH]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I notice the GFS has been pretty steady with that feature, The euro has done it too, Its a good possibility we could get caught in the transfer and huff some subsidence exhaust, That's why i would have like to seen this develop sooner and further east, I know i'm speaking for the majority here as well, We will have to see if it makes any last minute tics.

So that is why we are seeing the qpf sink hole around my area.  I posted before but got no answers.  The trees (pines mostly) have a lot of snow from our nuke a couple of days ago and most of the trees are ice coated around here.  Box hits wind hard, Gray does not mention it.  Does west wind come roaring in up here too?  I would think it would.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't wait to see radar images of yellows over the spine and snow covered Subarus.

Haha everyone loves radar images when Will posts them...but I can't figure out why they don't like mine?  

I hope you guys can salvage a white Xmas down there...especially for the kids.  Nothing puts the magic of snow in a kid's mind than it falling on Christmas.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Haha everyone loves radar images when Will posts them...but I can't figure out why they don't like mine?  

I hope you guys can salvage a white Xmas down there...especially for the kids.  Nothing puts the magic of snow in a kid's mind than it falling on Christmas.

LOL your images are usually drool worthy. We'll see how it goes. I was hoping other guidance would have shifted a bit colder. Hopefully the euro holds.

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. We'll see powderfreak post the usual "wow just nuking here. The models had all the qpf to the southeast and we're gonna end up with 8-10"!!!"...classic 500-700 goodies up that way. 

Haha "the usual".  That used to be for SNE for years.

It's a nice change of pace last winter and this winter so far from our two years without a warning criteria snowfall between 12/2014-12/2016.  

But yeah I think I've posted several times, it'll all be about ratios in this system.  I feel pretty good about 1/3rd of an inch to 0.4" QPF.  We'll see what type of flakes actually fall from the sky.  Just forecast the QPF and see how the snow total responds.  

This system might be one of those sneaky good ones for like Lyndon State and the NEK spots that often don't do that hot on big synoptic snows.  The wind flow and banding looks like it won't be full downslope off the Whites.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Haha "the usual".  That used to be for SNE for years.

It's a nice change of pace last winter and this winter so far from our two years without a warning criteria snowfall between 12/2014-12/2016.  

But yeah I think I've posted several times, it'll all be about ratios in this system.  I feel pretty good about 1/3rd of an inch to 0.4" QPF.  We'll see what type of flakes actually fall from the sky.  Just forecast the QPF and see how the snow total responds.  

I meant "usual" in terms of you expecting less than you get from a storm that seemingly is supposed to jackpot well to the southeast of you. That includes SNE storms. Lol. You'll be feeling a bit left out when 0.85" is forecast over S NH but then you get similar snow totals. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Thank goodness for that high pressure

 

[weathafella]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually pretty cold. Def colder than American guidance. Hard to tell with the cruddy limited data but going by 850mb and the sfc track it is prob not far off from euro of last night. 

Good news. Thanks Will.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That’s a great map; no disagreements there. Extreme NW CT probably cashes in with 6”...

[CoastalWx]

The SPC HREF keeps the RA/SN line near 128 and then collapses back down to BOS. Looks similar to the euro. Certainly nowhere near as warm as other guidance, That makes more sense to me.

[dryslot]

32 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

So that is why we are seeing the qpf sink hole around my area.  I posted before but got no answers.  The trees (pines mostly) have a lot of snow from our nuke a couple of days ago and most of the trees are ice coated around here.  Box hits wind hard, Gray does not mention it.  Does west wind come roaring in up here too?  I would think it would.

Models have been pretty adamant about placing this area and over to you in that subsidence, I guess we will find out once its underway.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The SPC HREF keeps the RA/SN line near 128 and then collapses back down to BOS. Looks similar to the euro. Certainly nowhere near as warm as other guidance, That makes more sense to me.

That solution is def more typical climo. I kind of expect a good gradient near or just west of 128...and BOS will prob finish as snow too. It does look more and more like everyone starts as snow too except far south shore and maybe some of the south coast before flipping. 

[WinterWolf]

With the Ukie being cold, if the Euro follows suit and holds fast...I think you have to tip the hat towards that combo, and go a lil colder and little bit snowier for most than what the American guidance is showing. 

 

if the Euro jumps ship and goes warmer it’s curtains for most of us I’m feeling. 

[bch2014]

Seen many a storm like this. RA/SN line often sets up at the gulf gas station on route two in Lincoln.

4-6” here in Concord. La-La-Lock it up.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

With the Ukie being cold, if the Euro follows suit and holds fast...I think you have to tip the hat towards that combo, and go a lil colder and little bit snowier for most than what the American guidance is showing. 

 

if the Euro jumps ship and goes warmer it’s curtains for most of us I’m feeling. 

I'm basically going a euro/rgem blend right now. That would put a gradient along or just west of 128 in MA and prob near 84 in CT though far NE CT in windham county may be ok too even though they are technically east of 84. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm basically going a euro/rgem blend right now. That would put a gradient along or just west of 128 in MA and prob near 84 in CT though far NE CT in windham county may be ok too even though they are technically east of 84. 

Sounds very reasonable.  I’m on the gradient lol...84 runs N & S through my town, so some of the town is east of 84, and Some is West.  

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I meant "usual" in terms of you expecting less than you get from a storm that seemingly is supposed to jackpot well to the southeast of you. That includes SNE storms. Lol. You'll be feeling a bit left out when 0.85" is forecast over S NH but then you get similar snow totals. 

Haha oh ok I gotcha.

Yeah definitely prone to that head-fake here in the NW zones... instead of worrying about rain/snow we get QPF in our heads back this way. 

But yeah, all about ratios.  Same thing with that over-running event the other day.  Somehow punched into the great snow growth and turned a half inch of QPF into solid warning snows.  So hard though to predict sometimes as at the mountain I'd rather be low and have it over-produce.  Mostly because skiers don't like to be told it won't snow as much as they were told.  So I'll play it conservative at 10-12:1 and then when we get the 18-20:1 it takes that 4-6" and makes it 7-10".

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Trees bending in Nashua and Dracut area covered in solid ice.

Its cloudy and 34 , we lookin at power issues ahead

Anywhere that has ice and is getting 6" snow could have issues,no?

[Dan]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Trees bending in Nashua and Dracut area covered in solid ice.

Its cloudy and 34 , we lookin at power issues ahead

Anywhere that has ice and is getting 6" snow could have issues,no?

I was thinking the same thing, especially now with the wind advisory out later on Monday.   Driving through Methuen and Andover, lots of ice still coating all the trees, just barely above freezing, not much melting so far.   I would think the chance of power outages would be pretty high, especially if there is any pasty consistency to the snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

eura ftl?

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Trees bending in Nashua and Dracut area covered in solid ice.

Its cloudy and 34 , we lookin at power issues ahead

Anywhere that has ice and is getting 6" snow could have issues,no?

I also have that but I think I spend enough rain time tomorrow for it to be a non issue.

[dryslot]

That 12z EURO run is probably the best you can ask for this close in up in CNE and NNE.

[weathafella]

The euro gives a decent amount of snow before taint issues here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That 12z EURO run is probably the best you can ask for this close in up in CNE and NNE.

Looks warmer down here, you guys in good shape there. Enjoy a memorable Christmas.

[Thunderblizzard]

12z Euro looks warmer than 0z but still colder than a lot of models

[weathafella]

Just now, Thunderblizzard said:

12z Euro looks warmer but still colder than a lot of models

It is slightly warmer but not a whole lot of difference in the big picture.

[CoastalWx]

A bit warmer but still a couple inches down here it seems. I like Will's idea of the euro/reggie combo. 

[WxBlue]

I still like 3-6" from ORH to PSM with local spots up to 7-8". That's the current consensus.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro FTW. No changes interior areas. Actually hooks up BOS

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks warmer down here, you guys in good shape there. Enjoy a memorable Christmas.

Yeah, It was down that way, Just couldn't get this thing to crank up sooner and east, Primary being a biatch, Merry Christmas to you and your family.