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Dec 22-23 snow/ice threat


ORH_wxman

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. I guess the one help is that we don't have 15-20kt winds advecting lower Td air in...will be just like N-NNW winds under 5 kts. But with temps in the 20s, that's still rather efficient.

Yeah and the precip rates won't be overly heavy. But even a 5-10 knot drain is going to be pretty effective for a while slowing down the latent heat release. Esp since these are nice arctic dewpoints draining down the coast of ME/NH.

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Take them up

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 am Update: Have made some significant changes to forecast.
Have expanded the winter storm warnings further north across
most of northern NH and further north and east into Maine. With
the combination of a very strong baroclinic zone setting up
south and west of our area, and some added lift being supplied
by an approaching short wave should suffice in some healthy QPF.
Expecting a decent swath of heavy snow to spread across the
warning areas this late this morning and afternoon. The very
cold deep arctic dome over our area will continue through the
night. Lowered max temps today. Models hint and depict the cold
drainage of air from the north with the nosing of the high with
classic cold air damming to continue for the next 24 hours. For
the near term today the focus was on increasing the snowfall
amounts due to 20:1 snowfall ratios expected.
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like RGEM is back to blasting the WF through tomorrow aftn. That looks suspicious.

Yeah it looks pretty normal until 21z Saturday....then it tries to track low pressure over the Litchfield hills and ORH hills...not happening james.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

DIT will not recover if it busts like that again. Thats a long , a very long hangover. 

I fear he is setting himself up for a very big let down.  But maybe it gets worse than we think???  Hard to tell right now.  Ryan isn't  too impressed for it getting bad in most of CT...I think he's right.  How long does that cold air hang on...is the million dollar question?

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I fear he is setting himself up for a very big let down.  But maybe it gets worse than we think???  Hard to tell right now.  Ryan isn't  too impressed for it getting bad in most of CT...I think he's right.  How long does that cold air hang on...is the million dollar question?

This Met agrees with you.

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1 hour ago, rimetree said:

The official forecast for PSM has us going to 37F tomorrow before noon on a light north wind? I have events tomorrow afternoon that I'd rather not cancel, so would welcome that change, but it seems questionable based on the feedback in this thread. 

I actually would buy you more climbing above freezing tonight only to tuck back below early in the morning. 

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