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Dec 22-23 snow/ice threat


ORH_wxman

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4 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Good point. Still a bit nervous about snow piling up on pine trees around here... then again... I'm sure trees up here are tougher than in the south. 

Not sure about that. I was in Nottingham for the '08 ice storm. Probably had 3 white pines just snap in half whereas most other healthy trees just lost some limbs but managed to survive.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Seems like a late afternoon burst before the mid levels warm around 3Z.

Yeah if we grab 2-4", it will prob be in a fairly short window between about 3-7pm...we're on the southern edge of the decent forcing. My worry for a place like BOS is they grab a few inches of snow and it's warming to near freezing around the time of the flip...maybe even slightly above freezing for a time and then the meso low passes southeast and sloshes all the frigid air right back to the coast and anything that started to melt or any standing moisture will flash freeze.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we grab 2-4", it will prob be in a fairly short window between about 3-7pm...we're on the southern edge of the decent forcing. My worry for a place like BOS is they grab a few inches of snow and it's warming to near freezing around the time of the flip...maybe even slightly above freezing for a time and then the meso low passes southeast and sloshes all the frigid air right back to the coast and anything that started to melt or any standing moisture will flash freeze.

That's my thinking. They creep to a 33-34 deal and drop to 25-27 in the evening. Give or take. Sometimes these do not happen as you expect, but I think agreement is pretty darn good for that.

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Looks like I'll be north of the best qpf (Dryslot/Lava Rock get more once again), but also north of anything resembling a thaw.  I'll readily take less snow if it means less ZR as well.  The Christmas program at our church is scheduled for tomorrow and Saturday nights, so not great for that.  I'm glad we had a good crowd for the trial run this past Sunday morning.

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14 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Not sure about that. I was in Nottingham for the '08 ice storm. Probably had 3 white pines just snap in half whereas most other healthy trees just lost some limbs but managed to survive.

Funny enough, I'm staying in Nottingham this weekend.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's my thinking. They creep to a 33-34 deal and drop to 25-27 in the evening. Give or take. Sometimes these do not happen as you expect, but I think agreement is pretty darn good for that.

 

It's hard to see how it doesn't happen...I mean, maybe right on the immediate coast stays above freezing? But the path of the meso low suggests it will flash freeze right to the coast. Maybe it changes between now and tomorrow night.

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14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looks like I'll be north of the best qpf (Dryslot/Lava Rock get more once again), but also north of anything resembling a thaw.  I'll readily take less snow if it means less ZR as well.  The Christmas program at our church is scheduled for tomorrow and Saturday nights, so not great for that.  I'm glad we had a good crowd for the trial run this past Sunday morning.

Looks like we get the whole shabang here.

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This mornings runs are kind of concerning up here in Dendriteland.  We always seem to over perform in CAD.  After tomorrow's fluff, there seems to be an increasing amount of qpf on Saturday.  If temps stay below 32F during most or all of it then there could be some substantial ice.  Like people have said if we start with 3-5" of snow on the trees  (looks like little wind) then we could have some real power issues.  

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

This mornings runs are kind of concerning up here in Dendriteland.  We always seem to over perform in CAD.  After tomorrow's fluff, there seems to be an increasing amount of qpf on Saturday.  If temps stay below 32F during most or all of it then there could be some substantial ice.  Like people have said if we start with 3-5" of snow on the trees  (looks like little wind) then we could have some real power issues.  

Here's one thing when the ice freezes to the snow it also can add weight to the snow and the snow falls breaking the crystals which held it to the tree so you end up with less weight on the branches

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It might also mean folks have said all that needs to be said.  Euro is not warmer.

This. We're in that weird phase between looking at models and nowcasting. We're now certain on what will happen, but we still have another half-day before short-range models start kicking in to begin the nowcast.

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Yeah the models have really not done much at the 12z suite except confirm the status quo...GFS was prob a tick colder out of all of them, but otherwise, I think you just have to get ready for a long duration icing event over the interior and a very dangerous cold tuck near the coast. It remains to be seen exactly how much QPF will fall during that period, which will make the difference between like a couple tenths of accretion and a half inch plus which would be extremely damaging.

Snow zone seems to be pretty stable as well...advisory snows from Rt 2 up through Powderfreak region....Mass pike region looks on the edge of the better forcing tomorrow afternoon but I'd stick to like 1-2" there. Lower prob of 3"+...chances increase for that if the forcing is slightly south.

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As long as that high can keep advecting in lower dews out of Maine we’ll keep the wetbulbing potential to combat the latent heatings once the ptype flips to ZR/ZL. Once that shuts off, we seem to make that steady creep to 32F in the lower elevations. The longer we can keep IZG frozen (IP/SN...not ZR) the better.

Wetbulbs will be near 0F up into N ME with precip getting up there by 6z Sat so theoretically we have prime arctic cold to tap into and advect in.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

As long as that high can keep advecting in lower dews out of Maine we’ll keep the wetbulbing potential to combat the latent heatings once the ptype flips to ZR/ZL. Once that shuts off, we seem to make that steady creep to 32F in the lower elevations. The longer we can keep IZG frozen (IP/SN...not ZR) the better.

Wetbulbs will be near 0F up into N ME with precip getting up there by 6z Sat so theoretically we have prime arctic cold to tap into and advect in.

Yep, this has very good dewpoint drain potential for a while...the high doesn't really retreat to an uglier position until about 12z Saturday...and even then, you still have the effects of the mesolow advecting the antecedent dewpoints down from Maine for a while. This is why I think there could be some pretty serious problems if the QPF gets over that 3/4" mark.

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