Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Dec 22-23 snow/ice threat


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 752
  • Created
  • Last Reply
11 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

12z Reggie looks a tic colder.

So was the 12z RPM. I don't really see how anyone sniffs above freezing away from the immediate shore until mid morning Saturday at the earliest...and there's potential that it doesn't happen until much later than that. For a few regions further north in interior MA/NH/ME/VT, they will never reach freezing IMHO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

So was the 12z RPM. I don't really see how anyone sniffs above freezing away from the immediate shore until mid morning Saturday at the earliest...and there's potential that it doesn't happen until much later than that. For a few regions further north in interior MA/NH/ME/VT, they will never reach freezing IMHO.

Thinking at the very least from the Pike north gonna be a real mess.  Like you said if those freezing temps hold on longer down this way could probably add the northern half of CT to the chit show!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Sugarloaf was lucky in 1998, everything S of Kingfield was devastated.   I remember coming up through Belgrade Lakes region on Rt 27 and the damage was breathtaking. 

The break point (pun intended) between devastation and moderate damage was in the Kennebec Highlands, probably at Mile Hill on Rt 27.  On a Sept '98 walkabout, we saw huge piles of branches and tops near Round Pond (3 miles NW of Belgrade Village, map 20 on DeLorme) but only minor/moderate just a couple hundred yards to the north.  I had more breakage on the 1/4 acre of woods on my house lot in Gardiner, where I then lived, than on the 80-acre woodlot at my current residence.  IP to the rescue!

I was at Sugarloaf for two 500 year events.  One was the 1998 ice storm and there other the April 2007 Nor' Easter with 100" of snow.

IMO, April 2007 was far from a 500-year event for 'Loaf summit.  The Feb 1969 storm dumped 56" on Long Falls Dam, 12 miles NE and 3,000' lower than TOS, which must've gotten much more.  The late Feb extended event of 2010 probably approached the century mark up there as well.  The two events I'd label as at least 100, maybe 500, are the 1998 ice storm (we agree there) and the 1987 flood on the Kennebec.  That rain/snowmelt event brought a peak flow of 232,000 cfs at the gauge just upriver from Augusta, and though there's only a bit under 40 years of record there, no other peak has reached even half of that flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I understand that NAM can overdo the QPF, but this is a disaster waiting to happen in eastern Mass, southern 2/3 of NH, and southwestern Maine.

Ice.png

This does not thrill me. I'm not traveling but will be hosting family and a couple friends. Planning for no one to come? Or planning for them to end up staying?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I am driving upstate from Brooklyn to Roscoe, NY on Saturday night. Think I’ll have trouble?

all kinds of trouble. perhaps you could seek advice from the NY forum, where people who live in and around NY would know the conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WintersComing said:

Thinking at the very least from the Pike north gonna be a real mess.  Like you said if those freezing temps hold on longer down this way could probably add the northern half of CT to the chit show!!

N CT won't get above freezing until well into Sat morning I don't think unless there are large scale changes.

 

Here's 12z RGEM at 12z Sat:

 

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_48.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

So was the 12z RPM. I don't really see how anyone sniffs above freezing away from the immediate shore until mid morning Saturday at the earliest...and there's potential that it doesn't happen until much later than that. For a few regions further north in interior MA/NH/ME/VT, they will never reach freezing IMHO.

We never broke above freezing during Dec 12 CAD event so I'm assuming the same here. We're in for a painful weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Think another concern should be those areas that get the initial 2-4 inches of snow and then throw .2 to .5 of ice on that......lots of trees comin down!

That'd weight a lot more than 0.2 to 0.5 of ice, which is destructive enough by itself. Definitely a factor to consider.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

N CT won't get above freezing until well into Sat morning I don't think unless there are large scale changes.

 

Here's 12z RGEM at 12z Sat:

 

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_48.gif

At noon Saturday with limbs dropping and falling  like a set of  saggers, and temps still around 30, gonna be a lot of surprised folks on here based on some of these posts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WxBlue said:

That'd weight a lot more than 0.2 to 0.5 of ice by itself and that's destructive enough. Definitely a factor to consider.

The snow will be pretty powdery, so it won't be too much of an issue. Def doesn't help...any extra weight at all...but there shouldn't be much snow on the smaller limbs when it's powdery. Not expecting much snow south of the pike...maybe 1-3" for pike region and your 'hood looks good for prob 3-5".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They'll nuke the roads (at least in MA and NH) so that shouldn't be a big problem. Didn't we get like 2-3'' of QPF and accretion > 1'' during the December '08 ice storm? And didn't we have an ice storm in like '06 with accretion topping out around 0.5''? I vaguely remember the '06 storm being not that big a deal and the '08 ice storm being a huge deal once we hit around .6 or .7'' accretion. 

I'm not sold on this being super damaging or in the same ballpark as Octobomb or '08, and probably not even that close to the October windstorm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

They'll nuke the roads (at least in MA and NH) so that shouldn't be a big problem. Didn't we get like 2-3'' of QPF and accretion > 1'' during the December '08 ice storm? And didn't we have an ice storm in like '06 with accretion topping out around 0.5''? I vaguely remember the '06 storm being not that big a deal and the '08 ice storm being a huge deal once we hit around .6 or .7'' accretion. 

You may be thinking of Jan 2007 for the ice event back then...don't think that one got to a half inch though in many spots. More like a quarter inch to maybe 3/8ths. A half inch of accretion will def cause some problems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The snow will be pretty powdery, so it won't be too much of an issue. Def doesn't help...any extra weight at all...but there shouldn't be much snow on the smaller limbs when it's powdery. Not expecting much snow south of the pike...maybe 1-3" for pike region and your 'hood looks good for prob 3-5".

Good point. Still a bit nervous about snow piling up on pine trees around here... then again... I'm sure trees up here are tougher than in the south. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You may be thinking of Jan 2007 for the ice event back then...don't think that one got to a half inch though in many spots. More like a quarter inch to maybe 3/8ths. A half inch of accretion will def cause some problems.

I was hoping you'd help me on that. Yes that is the one. I thought we had about a half inch in ASH but I was 13 so who knows. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z NAM is quite concerning IMO for northern CT. Starting to become apparent that we could be dealing with a fairly decent icing event. One “saving grace” could be Saturday morning and it now becoming day as opposed to night...but if sfc temps can stay like 28-29 instead of 30-31...could be some problems 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...