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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I actually don’t think I even saw yesterday’s projected accumulations map aside from the high-end 10% probability one you posted, but the current one seems decent in the mountains at any rate.  Similar to what you mentioned, our point forecast in Waterbury is in the 7-14” range through Wednesday, but it’s got additional snow in there on Thursday and Friday that they’re not putting numbers on yet since it’s still a bit out there in time.  In line with what adk mentioned though, I don’t think it would be at all difficult for Mansfield to pick up a couple feet through Friday based on that cyclonic flow.

Actually, we’ve been sort of “due” for a stretch like this around here; the local mountains have definitely been lagging on snowfall.  Bolton Valley is a resort with a 300”+ snowfall average, and they’re at only 169” on the season even after this latest round of upslope.  They’ve got a long way to go to even get to average seasonal snowfall, and there’s only about a month of season left for them.

Down in the valley, we haven’t been nearly as behind.  We’ve certainly been lagging after the slow February, but this last upslope event actually caught us right up to roughly average snowfall for the date.

yeah the 10% map was just for fun but it definitely is under yesterday's actual forecast map. Either way I am disappointed that there won't be a double digit event this year in the BTV area but still some nice moderate events. 

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BTV sticking with just WWAs due to the long duration, can't say I agree but them's the pros.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ012&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ012&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=43.7499&lon=-72.3782

Quote

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snowfall will impact the area from tonight through Wednesday morning Over this 30 hour period, about 7 to 10 inches of snow is expected. Some of the highest elevations will have a foot of snow or more. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, northwest and southern Vermont and northern New York. * WHEN...From 2 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. The steadiest snowfall will occur during the daylight hours on Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and evening commutes on Tuesday, as well as Wednesday morning. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

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3 hours ago, klw said:

That is back to the map we had the day before and makes more sense with the text.

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5 hours ago, klw said:

 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

That is back to the map we had the day before and makes more sense with the text.

Yeah, the new map is definitely a bump from before.  Another notable difference from my last update of the advisories map – all the areas off to the west of the spine have Winter Weather Advisories now:

12MAR18C.jpg

Our point forecast was bumped here as well, it’s roughly 10 to 20 inches now through Wednesday night.

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Gosh,  imagine if this had happened over winter break or February break...the ski resorts would have been rolling in the money. Do you skiers think this might be too little too late? I always thought it must be hard to turn a profit running a ski resort. 

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I haven’t really been checking up on this. Do I have to start giving it some thought now? Lol. 

As firvthe ski areas, I think the money is in the real estate and accommodations. The rest is all to draw buyers. Just like golf courses. 

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Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.2 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

 

Overnight we had an initial shot of snow from Winter Storm Skylar, and the point forecast suggests an additional ~11-20” over the next few days.

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Just a gentle light snow with almost no wind here.  Nothing even approaching moderate.  NAM cut me back by 1/3 or more.  Wonder if an intense band can set up near me?  Otherwise just a gentle snowy day.  Business, schools all closed.  I know Im whining but want one intense comma head epic storm.  Got close on year ago when E NH really got clobbered with lots of wind.

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Snowing nicely, under 1sm vis.  

Mountain has been seeing roughly half inch per hour per coworker.  Less here in town but snowing steadily.

i honestly don't care about town in this one, I'm sort of over it in my yard lol.  We were close to grass with just ice and grayscale but now back to shoveling paths.  

Just put all the snow on the mountain please.  That's like asking it to snow at the supermarket and not at home though, ha.

 

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Lousy snow growth most of the day after the initial hit.  It picked up about 15 minutes ago and much better flakes now.  2.5" so far.  I took a snow day.

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While we will go out this winter without any major events I did get to see a snowy owl today!

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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36 minutes ago, eyewall said:

While we will go out this winter without any major events I did get to see a snowy owl today!

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk
 

Nice.  I feel like everyone of your posts now though references Winter is done with no big events.  I think you'll do well tonight.  Big events don't grow on trees in BTV, you can go years without a 14" event there.  You had a 30" one last year, that probably covers 5 years worth of storms.  It's not worth dwelling on it because it is the climate the further away from the ocean you get, especially out of the mountains.

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Event totals: 3.5” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 3.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.30 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.3

Snow Density: 9.7% H2O

Temperature: 34.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

 

Flakes have been fairly small from what I’ve seen today, so snow density has continued to be around 10 to 1.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I had 4.0" at 3:30pm... interesting JSpin, you are usually beating me. Snow was dense but then got real fluffy around 2-3pm.

I think we are over 5" now in town.

It could be because we’re a touch warmer here and/or I don’t think we’ve had any bigger flakes yet – generally small flakes in the 1 to 2 mm range thus far based on the fairly synoptic-like density in the stack.  Up at Bolton today the flakes were generally on the small side as well, with just a few bouts of larger dendrites.

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice.  I feel like everyone of your posts now though references Winter is done with no big events.  I think you'll do well tonight.  Big events don't grow on trees in BTV, you can go years without a 14" event there.  You had a 30" one last year, that probably covers 5 years worth of storms.  It's not worth dwelling on it because it is the climate the further away from the ocean you get, especially out of the mountains.

Yeah that is true. It will be another photogenic event in the morning for sure either way. I will always remember the 30 incher. I am having to move again so this will be my last winter living here so I am going to soak up all the good skiing I can! I am thankful for that! 

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9 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

It could be because we’re a touch warmer here and/or I don’t think we’ve had any bigger flakes yet – generally small flakes in the 1 to 2 mm range thus far based on the fairly synoptic-like density in the stack.  Up at Bolton today the flakes were generally on the small side as well, with just a few bouts of larger dendrites.

Yeah I bet we've had similar moisture.  The top couple inches are very fluffy after very small flakes all morning.

The smaller flakes are back with the lighter snowfall that's probably around 1 mile vis as opposed to the 1/4-1/2sm most of the afternoon.

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6 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

We got in to really good rates with large flakes from 4:00 till now.  Got home and was surprised to see 9" on my board at 5:30.  Assuming that means a storm total of around 10 with settling.  Half at least of that has come since mid afternoon.

While I was sitting at work in Montpelier watching a nice snowfall with 5”-6” or so by the time I left at 4:30, apparently there was something special happening here at home in Barre Town. I thing there is well over a foot that has fallen and it’s still just puking snow. I will post pics later. When I checked just before I left work, it looked like we were in the northern reaches of that band that stretched into CT, as PF had mentioned earlier. Wow, had expected less than this over a longer time frame. This is a surprise. 

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