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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

J.Spin probably getting 1-2"/hr now too there on the county line at the interstate cut through.

I don’t think we were up at that rate of snowfall back then, but I’d say we’re up in that range now.  You can see the returns verging on 30 db in the composite radar image – seeing the flecks of 30 db yellow travel ESE and then disappear as they crash into the spine is pretty cool:

10MAR18A.gif

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Yeah J.  The lower level radar scan is text-book.  Waves of moderate snow echoes (which usually translate to 1"/hr or more) moving into the Spine.  The radar is blocked by the terrain in spots and there is a little drift still downwind, but the sharp gradient near BTV airport and a wall of snow banked up against the mountains is a classic signature of heavy mountain snows.

6xKrINB.gif

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

J.Spin probably getting 1-2"/hr now too there on the county line at the interstate cut through.

I checked for the 6:30 P.M. to 7:00 P.M. timeslot and snowfall rate was 1.2”/hr.

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Quite the AFD from BTV this evening... radar has looked good.  We lose an hour of snowfall accumulation overnight with the time change, haha.

A number of ingredients are coming together to produce very
favorable accumulating upslope snow showers overnight into
Sunday. Water vapor shows deep cyclonic flow with ribbons of
enhanced mid level moisture retrograding back into
northern/central VT and northern dacks...as vertically stack
system is located over northeast Maine. The combination of deep
available moisture with pw values 0.33"...good synoptic and
mesoscale lift from embedded 5h vorts and upslope wind component
will continue to produce periods of light to moderate snow
across the western slopes, portions of the northeast kingdom,
and northern dacks overnight. Soundings and ground truth
indicates very favorable snow growth with ratios of 15 to 20 to
1...supporting a good fluff factor...leading to slightly higher
snowfall totals by mid day Sunday. Winter wx advisory looks
reasonable as overall impacts will be limited to the higher
terrain of central/northern VT...northeast Kingdom and parts of
the dacks. General snowfall of 3 to 6 inches in advisory looks
good with isolated amounts from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak of 12
to 14 inches looks very likely by mid day Sunday. Have increased
pops to 100% and sharpen the qpf/snowfall gradient from cpv to
summits of western slopes...based on crnt thinking. Also...have
increased snowfall amounts across the northeast kingdom where
some localized areas above 2000 feet will see 8 to 10 inches.
Another good problem to have is trying to find the off switch to
the upslope snow machine...looks like a brief break develops
Sunday Aftn into Monday...before more accumulating snowfall for
Tuesday into Weds. Keep the free refills coming for PF and
company.
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Quite the AFD from BTV this evening... radar has looked good.  We lose an hour of snowfall accumulation overnight with the time change, haha.

Keep the free refills coming for PF and company.

LOL, that’s got to be the highlight of the AFD of course, however, you can’t help but enjoy…

“Another good problem to have is trying to find the off switch to the upslope snow machine...looks like a brief break develops Sunday afternoon into Monday...before more accumulating snowfall for Tuesday into Weds.”

hashtagnice.jpg

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Event totals: 5.2” Snow/0.31” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 5.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.31 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 16.8

Snow Density: 6.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.2 F

Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

 

Snowfall here at the house has generally been running at ~1”/hr. this evening.  If the higher elevations are running at ~2X what’s going on down here, or even close to that, then they should be hitting double digit accumulations soon if they haven’t already.  I checked the Lincoln Peak Summit Snow Stake Cam to get an idea of what’s going on at elevation, but it looks like they’ve only picked up a couple inches of new snow thus far, so it seems the Central Greens are a bit south of the heavier stuff at the moment.

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8" in past 24 hours at the base area Barnes Camp snowstake.  Still snowing harder than radar would make you think.

Grooming reporting a foot or so upper mountain but haven't gotten a reading on High Road.

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8" reported at Smuggs (not sure where they measure but from experience skiing there their reports are usually accurate). We had a few tenths of an inch here in the Noosk on the very western fringe of the snow. Flurries are still in the air this morning. 

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Event totals: 6.5” Snow/0.44” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 29.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

 

Flakes weren’t huge for the overnight accumulation, so the snow density was up around 10% H2O.

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It is still cranking snow, heavy at times.

We are up to 12" in 24 hours and 9" since 4pm yesterday.

R6AwLKn.gif

 

9" stack cleared this morning after the 3" that cleared at 4pm yesterday.

This is no upslope fluff.  A lot of graupel and it is very thick but smooth to ski through.  Like ball bearings.

We got a serious shot of QPF overnight.

9-inches-of-new-snow-since-4pm-yesterday

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Event totals: 7.2” Snow/0.50” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.7

Snow Density: 8.6% H2O

Temperature: 34.0 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 14.5 inches

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Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas from the recent upslope snowfall event:

 

Jay Peak: 12”

Burke: 8”

Smuggler’s Notch: 8”

Stowe: 10”

Bolton Valley: 11”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 6”

Middlebury: 4”

Pico: 4”

Killington: 4”

Okemo: 1”

Bromley: 2”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 1”

 

As one would expect, totals are highest up north, topping out around a foot, and taper down to an inch or two in the south.

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The next system that’s expected to affect the area has been named Winter Storm Skylar, and there are Winter Weather Advisories in effect here in Northern Vermont, with Winter Storm Warnings off to the south.  The current BTV NWS projected accumulations map only goes through 8:00 P.M. tomorrow, but it’s got shading in the 8-12” range in the mountains around here.  It looks like there could be more than that to come though, because the Mansfield point forecast through Wednesday has 10-20”+, but more after that.  Maps are below:

12MAR18A.jpg

12MAR18B.jpg

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Just now, J.Spin said:

The next system that’s expected to affect the area has been named Winter Storm Skylar, and there are Winter Weather Advisories in effect here in Northern Vermont, with Winter Storm Warnings off to the south.  The current BTV NWS projected accumulations map only goes through 8:00 P.M. tomorrow, but it’s got shading in the 8-12” range in the mountains around here.  It looks like there could be more than that to come though, because the Mansfield point forecast through Wednesday has 10-20”+, but more after that.  Maps are below:

12MAR18A.jpg

12MAR18B.jpg

That is quite a reduction from yesterday's map but also that map doesn't account for the full totals. Our text forecast has 5-10 inches through Wed.

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PF knows this from some visual evidence that was shared with him, but there is a 0% chance Jay got 12" Sat night. MAYBE 4" overnight at the resort. 

The pattern looks absurd from Tuesday evening through Friday AM. Temps aren't perfect for upslope - want it 2C colder at 850 - but they are plenty good enough.  Honestly if Stowe totaled 36" by Friday AM from this week I would not be surprised at all.

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3 hours ago, eyewall said:

That is quite a reduction from yesterday's map but also that map doesn't account for the full totals. Our text forecast has 5-10 inches through Wed.

I actually don’t think I even saw yesterday’s projected accumulations map aside from the high-end 10% probability one you posted, but the current one seems decent in the mountains at any rate.  Similar to what you mentioned, our point forecast in Waterbury is in the 7-14” range through Wednesday, but it’s got additional snow in there on Thursday and Friday that they’re not putting numbers on yet since it’s still a bit out there in time.  In line with what adk mentioned though, I don’t think it would be at all difficult for Mansfield to pick up a couple feet through Friday based on that cyclonic flow.

Actually, we’ve been sort of “due” for a stretch like this around here; the local mountains have definitely been lagging on snowfall.  Bolton Valley is a resort with a 300”+ snowfall average, and they’re at only 169” on the season even after this latest round of upslope.  They’ve got a long way to go to even get to average seasonal snowfall, and there’s only about a month of season left for them.

Down in the valley, we haven’t been nearly as behind.  We’ve certainly been lagging after the slow February, but this last upslope event actually caught us right up to roughly average snowfall for the date.

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2 hours ago, adk said:

PF knows this from some visual evidence that was shared with him, but there is a 0% chance Jay got 12" Sat night. MAYBE 4" overnight at the resort. 

The pattern looks absurd from Tuesday evening through Friday AM. Temps aren't perfect for upslope - want it 2C colder at 850 - but they are plenty good enough.  Honestly if Stowe totaled 36" by Friday AM from this week I would not be surprised at all.

hmmm and my court appearance for friday just got adjourned.  quite the coincidence.  funny how that happens.

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