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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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Just a little bit over 3" of new snow up at the mountain.

Some surprisingly great skiing.  No wind and the snow is pretty dense, no upslope fluff here.  Probably a quarter inch of QPF in there, some graupel too.

3-inches-of-new-snow-to-freshen-up-your-

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

I am guessing based on the NWS maps this midweek storm will only be an advisory level event here.

I'm not ready to make any call on these event yet, but I tend to agree with you.  CPV doesn't look to do great right now. 

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Just now, adk said:

I'm not ready to make any call on these event yet, but I tend to agree with you.  CPV doesn't look to do great right now. 

Yeah I was hoping for 1 double digit event this year. We shall see.

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6 hours ago, eyewall said:

I am guessing based on the NWS maps this midweek storm will only be an advisory level event here.

 

4 hours ago, adk said:

I'm not ready to make any call on these event yet, but I tend to agree with you.  CPV doesn't look to do great right now. 

Here are the preliminary maps from the BTV NWS for archiving the event:

05MAR18A.jpg

05MAR18B.jpg

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You can see the differences in the NAM and GFS outcomes based on their banding signatures from the mid-level fronto maps.

The GFS argues for a stalled band across more C.VT as these 3 maps span 9-hours and the fronto doesn't move at all.

X4iVYeS.png

RXMEG2D.png

8E5rLu3.png

 

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Meanwhile the NAM argues for the best mid-level banding to be from almost the ALB area up into BTV and northern VT.

Showing what would likely be a band extending SSW to NNE and moving up and then curling through N.VT.

zNlPhY9.png

gaXaWF2.png

jdy1Xg3.png

hfrSvKi.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You can see the differences in the NAM and GFS outcomes based on their banding signatures from the mid-level fronto maps.

The GFS argues for a stalled band across more C.VT as these 3 maps span 9-hours and the fronto doesn't move at all.

X4iVYeS.png

RXMEG2D.png

8E5rLu3.png

 

I know it can be tough to pinpoint the exact location where these bands setup, but in that GFS depiction, SVT/me would be sucking a ton of exhaust for about 10 hours, no bueno. 

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BTV discussion indicates it will be a shadow screw job here. Between that and the BL temps I am having a hard time getting excited about this one. I don't think we will verify warning level snows here. I would say around 4-5 inches or so.

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I’ve added the most recent BTV NWS advisories and projected accumulations maps below.  Winter Storm Warnings are in place now for much of the area where confidence in impacts is fairly high, while Winter Storm Watches are in place on the northwestern fringe.  Projected accumulations east of the spine are in the 8-12” shading, with more 12-18” shading as one heads southward.

06MAR18A.jpg

06MAR18B.jpg

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4 hours ago, eyewall said:

BTV discussion indicates it will be a shadow screw job here. Between that and the BL temps I am having a hard time getting excited about this one. I don't think we will verify warning level snows here. I would say around 4-5 inches or so.

ALY disco was mentioning some blocked flow uplsope for Thursday, not sure if it translates to NVT, but you could add up some fluff quickly if it does.

 

Thursday, although the best synoptic forcing should lift north
and east of the region, a moist, cyclonic low/mid level flow
should promote considerable upslope snow across portions of the
Taconics and western New England through a good portion of the
day. In fact, Froude numbers from the Nam12 suggest a blocked
flow scenario through much of the day, in which greatest
vertical motion and most persistent snowfall occurs mainly
upstream of higher terrain features such as the Green Mountains,
Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. In fact, we have seen cases in
which such blocked flow allows accumulating snow to occur almost
to the Hudson River Valley. This will have to be watched, as
additional moderate snowfall accumulations could occur during
Thursday. For this reason, the Warning for eastern areas remains
in effect through the day Thursday.

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Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

ALY disco was mentioning some blocked flow uplsope for Thursday, not sure if it translates to NVT, but you could add up some fluff quickly if it does.

 

Thursday, although the best synoptic forcing should lift north
and east of the region, a moist, cyclonic low/mid level flow
should promote considerable upslope snow across portions of the
Taconics and western New England through a good portion of the
day. In fact, Froude numbers from the Nam12 suggest a blocked
flow scenario through much of the day, in which greatest
vertical motion and most persistent snowfall occurs mainly
upstream of higher terrain features such as the Green Mountains,
Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. In fact, we have seen cases in
which such blocked flow allows accumulating snow to occur almost
to the Hudson River Valley. This will have to be watched, as
additional moderate snowfall accumulations could occur during
Thursday. For this reason, the Warning for eastern areas remains
in effect through the day Thursday.

It won't be enough cold air for pure fluff but yeah we could add some if the setup is right on the back end. 

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Help me out here.  Long time lurker.  Location of Saratoga Springs, NY  and Warren, Vt (Sugarbush).  I follow the big storms on here (SNE forum because it most active).  It seems like Nor'easters, as a general rule, have an awful hard time over the last several years in delivering the serious goods to CVT.  Either super sharp cut-off on the western edge or shadowing or some other variable derails what appears to be a good looking track.  This one looks to be a coastal hugger or canal track with decent moisture feed but unless upslope pans out - not a lot of love for CVT.  I remember (perhaps nostalgically) watching model threads on Easternwx and waiting for the melt down of the majority as the  storm "shifted west" closer to the coast,  tainting in the big cities, and then packing my truck and heading to Sugarbush or Killington for 12 plus of glorious powder.  This mornings models appear to be trending in the right direction but what should I be looking at to help decide to use Sick Day for skiing in CVT or NVT versus just heading to So. Vt.  Thanks in advance.   

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I'd go SVT.  Magic or some place that doesn't groom much and got good snows in the last storm.

agreed but not because I dont think central/northern vt won't see good snow, its just that the southern areas have a better base from last weeks snow.  I'm not heading up to sugarbush for this event, although I'm hoping this lays a foundation for the rest of the season.  Say a half inch qpf from the synoptic part of the storm plus a little something on the backend.

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Was there a northerly flow down CPV today?  I was in S.Burlington and the car thermo read 35 while it was 44 between Waterbury and Montpelier. Usually it’s the other way around. 

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37 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Was there a northerly flow down CPV today?  I was in S.Burlington and the car thermo read 35 while it was 44 between Waterbury and Montpelier. Usually it’s the other way around. 

yes there was a northerly breeze at times.

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i am a passionate weenie who goes by his gut, but typically only posts after a few beers so it's nonsense.  I know more about the weather than most around me, but on this  forum I know nothing.  I lurked on ne.weather in the 90's and 2000's, then easternwx and now americanwx.  Even when PF was still in the Albany area (i think) (he had an amazing understanding of the local clime in Vermont) I knew he knew more than most mets at the time as afar as local climate went..  But everytime this situation happens no one seems to pick up on it, not even PF!  It's a west trend everytime and btv goes 3-6, 4-8. 5-10, 6-12, 8-16.  It happens everytime a model shows a low is coming up the e coast an going over the canal and everyone (the models) agrees except the euro.  It's a rare synoptic snowfall that happens in VT as opposed to the nickel and dime.   Hey Eyewall, it usually overperforms with a low froude number < .5 that indicates blocked and hit the cpv on the backside.  You get shadowed initially in the easterly flow but then that blocked flow equals bonus snow.  You might get more Thurs into Sat than you get weds.  Either way I love you all.  Also as a met you are even more weenie than me eyewall, knock it off and move to the Garfield area of Morrisville\Hyde Park if you want snow.

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i am a passionate weenie who goes by his gut, but typically only posts aftera few beers so it's nonsense.  I know more about the weather than most around me, but on this  forum I know nothing.  I lurked on ne.weather in the 90's and 2000's, then easternwx and now americanwx.  Even when PF was still in the Albany area (i think) (he had an amazing understanding of the local clime in Vermont) I knew he knew more than most mets at the time as afar as local climate went..  But everytime this situation happens no one seems to pick up on it, not even PF!  It's a west trend everytime and btv goes 3-6, 4-8. 5-10, 6-12, 8-16.  It happens everytime a model shows a low is coming up the e coast an going over the canal and everyone (the models) agrees except the euro.  It's a rare synoptic snowfall that happens in VT as opposed to the nickel and dime.   Hey Eyewall, it usually overperforms with a low froude number
Yeah I think patience is a virtue here with this one. In Pi Day we had a 5 inch per hour max in the initial phase but we cleaned up in the blocked flow phase to get to 30 inches. With the model shifts I am feeling a little more optimistic. If the CPV magic works out we have a chance at 10"

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

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I recall whan PF moved to somewhere near MRG.  And his goal was to get the snow.  He found it, by getting hired by Stowe.  Yay!!.  Move to the snow Eyewall!!  Mt Baker is calling you name!!

 

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52 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

But everytime this situation happens no one seems to pick up on it, not even PF!  It's a west trend everytime and btv goes 3-6, 4-8. 5-10, 6-12, 8-16.  It happens everytime a model shows a low is coming up the e coast an going over the canal and everyone (the models) agrees except the euro.

I actually like the way the BTV NWS typically paces their snow forecast and increases the projected accumulations as confidence grows.  On that note, Winter Storm Warnings have been pushed much farther to the northwest on the latest BTV NWS advisory map, and the projected accumulations ranges have been pushed northward.  That 12-18” is encroaching on NVT, and 18-24” shading has now appeared down south.  The latest maps are posted below:

06MAR18C.jpg

06MAR18D.jpg

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Reading other thread on upcoming storm and a lot of discussion on latest GFS run shifting significantly east.  This seems to be a move toward the Euro which NWS BTV was discounting earlier when they bumped snow forecast up this PM.  How far east can this go before we lose out on better banding dynamics?

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With the overnight updates, there aren’t any major changes in the BTV NWS advisory map around here, since everything in VT was already under Winter Storm Warnings.  There’s a bit of change seen in the projected accumulations map.  The 12-18” shading has definitely been pushed a bit northward to fill in the central part of the state more thoroughly.  The area of 18-24” shading in the far south has been contracted somewhat, although that’s actually in the CWA for the Albany NWS.

07MAR18A.jpg

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Latest BTV discussion indicates the feared eastward trend. My bad feelings about this one may be confirmed:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 952 AM EST Wednesday...Minor adjustments to pops/wx were
made as of late morning to better depict timing of initial light
snows pushing northward across our area in association with
PVA/convergence band with occluded upper low to our west. Better
push of steadier snows associated with developing coastal low
still on track to push north into our area later this
afternoon/tonight. Incoming data suggests trends continue in
showing a slightly more eastward track of this low tonight,
which would lower snowfall amounts across parts of the area,
especially in our NY counties. No changes to current snowfall
amounts at this time, but more adjustments may be needed by this
afternoon as the full suite of 12Z data becomes avaiable. Have
a great day!

We could end up with just another advisory level snow here if this keeps up.

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9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Latest BTV discussion indicates the feared eastward trend. My bad feelings about this one may be confirmed:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 952 AM EST Wednesday...Minor adjustments to pops/wx were
made as of late morning to better depict timing of initial light
snows pushing northward across our area in association with
PVA/convergence band with occluded upper low to our west. Better
push of steadier snows associated with developing coastal low
still on track to push north into our area later this
afternoon/tonight. Incoming data suggests trends continue in
showing a slightly more eastward track of this low tonight,
which would lower snowfall amounts across parts of the area,
especially in our NY counties. No changes to current snowfall
amounts at this time, but more adjustments may be needed by this
afternoon as the full suite of 12Z data becomes avaiable. Have
a great day!

We could end up with just another advisory level snow here if this keeps up.

As was mentioned in the other thread...kind of strange that BTV just chucked the Euro into Lake Champlain yesterday. As of now, most guidance has caved toward its general track idea. I guess we will see where it ends up, but looks east of where we thought yesterday.

I think 12" is probably the high end for me here in the valley down in SVT. Yesterday ALY had18-24" which I though was high even yesterday. Higher elevation East Slopes will do better down this way.

Have about 1.5" from this band that BTV discussed

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1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

As was mentioned in the other thread...kind of strange that BTV just chucked the Euro into Lake Champlain yesterday. As of now, most guidance has caved toward its general track idea. I guess we will see where it ends up, but looks east of where we thought yesterday.

I think 12" is probably the high end for me here in the valley down in SVT. Yesterday ALY had18-24" which I though was high even yesterday. Higher elevation East Slopes will do better down this way.

Have about 1.5" from this band that BTV discussed

Yeah 12z GFS says game over as well. Definitely a year of mediocrity.

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