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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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Now that Winter Storm Jaxon is through the area, I had time to core the snow to get a sense for the change in the liquid in the snowpack before and after the event:

 

Pre-Winter Storm Jaxon:  2.63”

Post-Winter Storm Jaxon:  2.97”

 

So as others have commented, it was a “net gain” system at our location as it was in many places.  There actually wasn’t any notable change in our snowpack depth, but the snowpack density certainly increased.  From what I could tell when coring, that extra density is really at the top of the snowpack where all that sleet/snow/rain fell.  That portion of the snowpack is ridiculously hard at my site, and it probably took me five minutes of work to core through it.  It was definitely one of the hardest snowpacks I’ve had to core, and I actually ended up putting a hairline crack in my rain gauge during the process because of how much pressure was required to get through the snow.

 

I’ve also got the updated NOHRSC SWE/Snow Depth/Snow Melt plot for our site below.  I’m sort of confused about how/when the modeling actually incorporates the empirical data provided from our site.  The modeling for snowpack depth (light blue line) appears to show some response to my snowpack data (light blue points), but with respect to SWE data (dark blue points) it’s almost as if the modeling (dark blue line) ignores the SWE data and goes on its merry way.  I see they have assimilation points marked in green along the top of the plot, and it looks like snow depth is synching up at those points, but it doesn’t seem to have any effect on SWE:

 

25JAN18A.jpg

 

Anyhow, if anyone’s up on how the modeling works for these plots that would be fun to discuss.

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16 hours ago, eyewall said:

It was a bluebird day today!

Holy sh*t man!  That's amazing.  Love those shots of the Chin...its hard to tell the topographical relief that thing has from a few angles but only that angle looking at it from the north really does it justice. 

I mean you can see Whiteface in that first photo over in the Adirondacks.  Crazy.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy sh*t man!  That's amazing.  Love those shots of the Chin...its hard to tell the topographical relief that thing has from a few angles but only that angle looking at it from the north really does it justice. 

I mean you can see Whiteface in that first photo over in the Adirondacks.  Crazy.

Thank you and yeah from the Madonna Summit over at Smuggs you could see Mt. Washington and the Presidentials clearly. Vis was amazing. For the drone it was a 4 mile round trip.

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Took the kids for a walk around my "yard" today, and I was somewhat surprised by how healthy the snowpack still is. A solid foot of cement on average; never got a ice crust on top, but it looks like the snow just absorbed the rain. It's solid enough to support an adult, and I only broke through a couple of times. Beaver pond looked pretty solid. Some big blocks of ice by the river

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Some nice skiing out there today... finally a day when you could wear just one layer under your jacket and didn't need a facemask and all that jazz. 

I still can't believe how good some of the ungroomed steeps and off-piste is skiing after the rain/freezing rain this week.  A few inches of dense snow on top of a smooth base makes for some fun skiing.

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Wow, shocked how warm it stayed last night. 44 in BTV right now, 43 in Mo-ville. Even the nose is reading 32/31 at 5:25 am. Was going to an event last night and when I was walking out the door at 5:30 to go there, it felt really spring like. The sun hadn't quite set yet and there was a real warmth to the south wind. I was like "is it March?" Strange. 

Looks like we get closer to normal this week but suppress most of the wx to our south.  Gonna be real interesting to see how this January pattern transitions. 

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1 hour ago, adk said:

Wow, shocked how warm it stayed last night. 44 in BTV right now, 43 in Mo-ville. Even the nose is reading 32/31 at 5:25 am. Was going to an event last night and when I was walking out the door at 5:30 to go there, it felt really spring like. The sun hadn't quite set yet and there was a real warmth to the south wind. I was like "is it March?" Strange. 

Looks like we get closer to normal this week but suppress most of the wx to our south.  Gonna be real interesting to see how this January pattern transitions. 

I had a feeling it would be warm....the 850s don't cool off very fast. 

Grooming reported a period of very light snow up high and light rain lower but nothing close to enough to give any snow accumulation up there.  Sounded more like flurries/drizzle.

I've got 27F now top of Quad and 38F base area.

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What is going on with all these Robins?   I must have 50 in the pasture right now.  I guess its cause I have the only thawed grass fields in the area that they are all flocking here.  Also about a dozen squirrels, one pileated woodpecker and a dozen turkeys that passed through awhile ago.  Last night lots of deer grazing and one fox.  I'm living in a zoo!  

 

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I had a feeling it would be warm....the 850s don't cool off very fast. 

Grooming reported a period of very light snow up high and light rain lower but nothing close to enough to give any snow accumulation up there.  Sounded more like flurries/drizzle.

I've got 27F now top of Quad and 38F base area.

Weren't you downplaying the modeled warmth a few days ago, as something only BTV-land might experience?

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47 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Weren't you downplaying the modeled warmth a few days ago, as something only BTV-land might experience?

I'd have to read back through... I mentioned once the models were trending colder and they did... remember this was going to be a huge cutter 5-6 days ago.

 

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On 1/24/2018 at 4:44 PM, powderfreak said:

Haha, I think the highs in the 40s are a bit high for this weekend, but maybe not in BTV land. 

I think Saturday looks like a nice weekend day all things considered this season.  Friday actually may be THE DAY though... 1040mb high overhead, sunny, temps in the 20s and teens on the mountain.

Apache you're right, was me haha.  But I wasn't downplaying model warmth, I thought we were talking about the BTV forecast not models...I was just going with the models which were cooling off.  This seems warmer than what models showed a few days ago.

Figured MVL/MPV would stay in the 30s.

My post this morning was more from a perspective yesterday that the overnight would remain mild.  Once it got that warm yesterday it was all over for cooling off last night.  Freezing level got up to 3000ft.

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Apache you're right, was me haha.  But I wasn't downplaying model warmth, I thought we were talking about the BTV forecast not models...I was just going with the models which were cooling off.  This seems warmer than what models showed a few days ago.

Figured MVL/MPV would stay in the 30s.

My post this morning was more from a perspective yesterday that the overnight would remain mild.  Once it got that warm yesterday it was all over for cooling off last night.  Freezing level got up to 3000ft.

Understood.  It sure was warmer than forecast.  I didn't remember seeing any 50s advertised earlier in the week.  Back to bare ground here in the Champlain Valley, and I understand that's the case in the lower elevations of southern Vermont, too.  Time to rebuild.

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37 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Understood.  It sure was warmer than forecast.  I didn't remember seeing any 50s advertised earlier in the week.  Back to bare ground here in the Champlain Valley, and I understand that's the case in the lower elevations of southern Vermont, too.  Time to rebuild.

We definitely are in need of a winter comeback.

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

We definitely are in need of a winter comeback.

Clouds and flurries this morning are almost getting me excited - like winter is telling us "no worries, I'm coming back." Snowpack survived quite well around my house, but I was surprised heading into Conway how much thinner it is just further up from me, although part of it is probably from the wind. Even at Bretton Woods the golf course is all bare patches. 

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6 minutes ago, alex said:

Clouds and flurries this morning are almost getting me excited - like winter is telling us "no worries, I'm coming back." Snowpack survived quite well around my house, but I was surprised heading into Conway how much thinner it is just further up from me, although part of it is probably from the wind. Even at Bretton Woods the golf course is all bare patches. 

Ha you know its been slow when I had the same excitement to see fat flakes falling and a tenth or two of accumulation at the mountain.

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There were some flurries around at observations time this morning, but they eventually picked up in intensity enough to put down our first accumulation in five days.  I know we don’t go too long without some sort of snowfall around here, so several days can feel lengthy, but this last stretch felt surprisingly long for whatever reason.

 

In any event, there’s no real mention of the snow in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, but the precipitation is visible on the local radar:

 

29JAN18A.gif

 

I’m going to file it under cold air advection/moist westerly flow for now, and I’ll refine that if the BTV NWS makes any comments in the forecast discussion.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha you know its been slow when I had the same excitement to see fat flakes falling and a tenth or two of accumulation at the mountain.

 

Some flakes were actually falling when we left Spruce Peak Village yesterday afternoon, so it felt like at least a bit of a return to normalcy.

 

But yeah, as I mentioned in my post, it has seemed really slow, even though my snow data say we had snow just 5 days ago.  It’s the typical January doldrums I guess.  On that note, with this January coming in way subpar on snowfall again, I checked my records and see that it’s now been seven years since we’ve had a good January in terms of snowfall (2010-2011 with 55.5”).  That was also the last time we had a good December/January couplet with more than 100”.  There have a been a couple of average to good Decembers in there, but January, that’s pretty impressive for what the long-term the BTV data say is their snowiest winter month.

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21 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

What is going on with all these Robins?   I must have 50 in the pasture right now.  I guess its cause I have the only thawed grass fields in the area that they are all flocking here.  Also about a dozen squirrels, one pileated woodpecker and a dozen turkeys that passed through awhile ago.  Last night lots of deer grazing and one fox.  I'm living in a zoo!  

 

They're not the only birds confused about the season.  Last week some of the local chickadees switched from their usual midwinter "chick-a-dee-dee" to the springtime "phee-bee".

Last storm left us with 12" of near-glacier pack that withstood yesterday's 40s, but the shiny surface promised tip-catching of snowshoes, so instead I cut up the black cherry that got tipped into the spring-overflow pond last summer.  Ice was chancy near the overflow entry point, probably frozen to the bottom elsewhere.

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BTV has officially fallen into a negative departure for snow to date on the season. I am hopeful we will see a turnaround and the departure is negligible but it is clear this latter part of January has been crap lol.

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59 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV has officially fallen into a negative departure for snow to date on the season. I am hopeful we will see a turnaround and the departure is negligible but it is clear this latter part of January has been crap lol.

This is a familiar story for the past three years.  Few synoptic storms and a dearth of clipper events parading across the region.  Upslope flow events, for certain, but no clippers that routinely affect the region as a whole.

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

BTV has officially fallen into a negative departure for snow to date on the season. I am hopeful we will see a turnaround and the departure is negligible but it is clear this latter part of January has been crap lol.

 

Well, that would suggest snowfall at my location is fairly in synch with BTV this season, on a relative scale of course.  My data indicate that without additional snow, we fall behind the average pace for seasonal snowfall tomorrow.  We’ve never been outrageously ahead of average this season (maxed out so far at +17” on Christmas), and we’ve had some other periods where we were behind the pace (early November, mid-November and 2nd week of December), so this does seem in line with the fluctuations thus far.  Actually, to get this deep into this season’s January doldrums ahead of average snowfall pace does speak to having had at least a decent surplus.  It seems like we could be coming out of this very slow snowfall stretch going forward though.

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