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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread

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The rain changed over to sleet here at 10:15 PM and the temperature was still a degree or two above freezing at that point, so there was no freezing rain as far as I can tell.  At the point of the changeover I headed out and switched the rain gauge back to winter mode.  The liquid here from Winter Storm Hunter thus far has been 1.27”, and based on the forecast whatever falls from this point should be frozen.  The sleet switched over to snow around 10:45 PM or so, thus there was about 30 minutes of sleet before the changeover.  At changeover there were 8 inches of snow at the stake, so that’s in fairly reasonable agreement with the 6 to 7 inches predicted by the NOHRSC modeling that I posted yesterday.  The Intellicast Radar grab I’ve got only goes through 10:45 PM EDT, but by that point the snow had at least made it to the Chittenden/Washington county line at this latitude.

 

12JAN18A.gif

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22 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The rain changed over to sleet here at 10:15 PM and the temperature was still a degree or two above freezing at that point, so there was no freezing rain as far as I can tell.  At the point of the changeover I headed out and switched the rain gauge back to winter mode.  The liquid here from Winter Storm Hunter thus far has been 1.27”, and based on the forecast whatever falls from this point should be frozen.  The sleet switched over to snow around 10:45 PM or so, thus there was about 30 minutes of sleet before the changeover.  At changeover there were 8 inches of snow at the stake, so that’s in fairly reasonable agreement with the 6 to 7 inches predicted by the NOHRSC modeling that I posted yesterday.  The Intellicast Radar grab I’ve got only goes through 10:45 PM EDT, but by that point the snow had at least made it to the Chittenden/Washington county line at this latitude.

 

12JAN18A.gif

Still plain rain here in East Montpelier.  Nothing freezing.

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Looks it went to freezing precip last night here in BTV to little effect. A dusting of something is out on the cars and surfaces. Me thinks it is sleet. 

Feel like the NWS really botched the flooding potential here. I kept reading about how the "snow pack" could absorb this and was a little confused. The pack I was seeing wasn't fluff by any means and was pretty thick with water. Combined with 50s for 48 hours and 2" of rain plus damming I thought the flood watches should have gone out a lot sooner.  Certainly that is the bigger headline than a mixed precip event. 

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It is definitely an underperformer in the BTV area thus far. We held on to the sleet mix for too long. Hopefully next week delivers. The ski areas need a real recovery snow, but the latest indications don't look good.

 

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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Event totals: 1.2” Snow/1.86” L.E.

 

Although the sleet changed over to snow last night, sleet definitely mixed back in and became the predominant precipitation type at our location.  There has been some snow in the mix, but in terms of its presence in the accumulation stack, it’s simply crushed by the sleet, which rules the stack density.

 

This morning’s observations required just about every tool in my arsenal – flash freezes like this are absolutely the worst.  I had to use one of my metal tenths of an inch rulers to dig down into the stack to get an accumulation measurement on the boards, because I know from experience that my plastic ones will snap with the force required in these cases.  Getting the snow core was the most challenging chore of the morning though.  Imagine trying to core a pile of dry sugar, which of course will not form a stack because it simply falls right back out of your coring device.  Oh, but don’t forget, someone melted the bottom ¼” to ½” of the sugar stack and adhered it like glue to the subsurface.  You’d almost need those metal teeth like the bottom of an Adirondack snow sampler to really get down there into the full stack with your coring device, but of course you’d destroy your snowboard in the process.  Anyway, with several minutes of careful work, grinding with my coring device and “sugar scooping” with one of my wider rulers, I got what I think was a decent core (0.59”).  I say a “decent” core, but I was still dubious enough that I decided to melt down the contents of the rain gauge to confirm it.  I don’t worry much about under-catch when it comes to sleet, so the gauge liquid should be pretty reliable in this case.  Indeed the gauge corroborated my core very tightly, with 0.58” of liquid once it was melted down.  Oh and yes I had my squeegee/brush/ice scraper out with me, but I simply laughed at the thought of even attempting to clear the boards of that shellacking.  I slapped in fresh elevated and ground boards and moved on.  But, I got the data, and sent it off to CoCoRaHS, so we’re ready for whatever comes next.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.2 inches (snow/sleet)

New Liquid: 0.59 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.0

Snow Density: 49.2% H2O

Temperature: 18.0 F

Sky: Light Snow/Sleet

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

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13 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

A mess out right now.  Driving sleet.  Trees have a solid glaze on them.  Not sure if we are going to get any snow before dry slot moves over us.  Stowe mountain report sounds grim this morning.

All VT ski areas too a beating from this one. Yesterday is a day we want to forget for sure.

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15 hours ago, eyewall said:

I would be curious to see how Smuggs and Stowe end up. Obviously even with tonight's snow this has to be a bit of a setback.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk
 

 

12 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I would be shocked if they aren't seeing brown spots

 

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

All VT ski areas too a beating from this one. Yesterday is a day we want to forget for sure.

 

I guess it will be interesting to hear details from Powderfreak, but I’m not sure why we’d expect massive snow loss and coverage-related closings at the northern resorts if we still have a solid 8” of snowpack left here at our location in the valley bottom.  Even the base elevations at the resorts in this area had substantially more snowpack (depth and liquid) than here at the house, so they would have needed to receive a lot more rain or far warmer temperatures than us to lose a lot of snow.  Bolton Valley is often most susceptible to warm air intrusion with its western exposure toward the Champlain Valley, and coverage looks fine there based on the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam.  I would think surface conditions are the most notable factor in terrain openings right now, but everything north of here should have just received at least 0.60” of liquid equivalent in frozen form too, with more to come.  Unless winds are a huge issue, that’s already a solid resurfacing.

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31 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Wow what a torch. Lost much of my snow cover at least in open areas. Front came thru 1am but took till 6am to get to 32f By then precip had just about ended so a bit of glaze. Temp just free falling now.

Untitled.jpg

I love your Nest cameras.  Waiting on the deer to reappear today,

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1 hour ago, klw said:

I love your Nest cameras.  Waiting on the deer to reappear today,

This year,  with all the spring rain our apple trees caught some type of fungus blight and we had very few apples.  Usually the deer yard up by the dozens in the woods behind the house.  So far this  winter have only seen a few here and there.  I turned on the spot lights last evening as the snow melted and saw some deer happily grazing.  Since I am up high I think I got torched worse than the areas around so my partly bare fields might be the best eatings around right now.  Wonder if they will all start coming out to graze?  Going to move the back camera towards the upper fields so you might catch some in the late afternoons.  

What a torch.  Usually I CAD so well but not this time.  My temps seem to run 10F higher all day and evening so snowpack took a huge hit...

Untitled.jpg

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The snowfall has really slowed down now, so it seemed like a good time to core the snowpack and get a post-storm analysis for snowpack liquid content:

 

Pre-Winter Storm Hunter:  2.68”

Post-Winter Storm Hunter:  2.63”

 

If we get any significant additional snow today I’ll adjust that latter number accordingly for the morning CoCoRaHS report.  Current NOHRSC modeling for our site suggests 2.0” of liquid in the snowpack as of tomorrow, but we’ll see if that changes once today’s additional precipitation is incorporated.  I’ll be running a 12:00 P.M. analysis on this morning’s sleet/snow, so we’ll see how much liquid that contained and have a sense for the total liquid obtained from this storm.

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Event totals: 2.2” Snow/2.20” L.E.

 

The breakdown for the L.E. in Winter Storm Hunter here has been 1.27” in liquid form, and 0.93” in frozen form.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.0 inches (snow/sleet)

New Liquid: 0.34 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.9

Snow Density: 34.0% H2O

Temperature: 21.6 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

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Event totals: 2.4” Snow/2.21” L.E.

 

The snow we’ve got out there right now is that arctic “under the radar” type snow, with fairly small flakes.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 9.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

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16 hours ago, eyewall said:

Looks like a bad situation up by Swanton. The governor is there.

Stowe Mountain Rescue (Technical Rescue Team) was up in that area all day and night for swift water rescues.  

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Stowe Mountain Rescue (Technical Rescue Team) was up in that area all day and night for swift water rescues.  

I know they are among the best at what they do so hopefully everyone is now safe.

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13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did Alex get flooded again.?

I think they were okay.  I texted him but haven't heard back yet.   Here's his webcam picture and the river is off to the left, several hundred feet behind those pines.  This area got flooded with the big fall storm and didn't this time.  Looks like they got a couple of inches of a refresher on the back side too..

a.jpg

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