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CDC Reanalysis data


AfewUniversesBelowNormal
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Going over charts in the CDC map room: Monthly climate composites, and Daily climate composites, I am aware of major pattern breaks in the last few years (more specifically, since 2012). The differences are so great, it would be almost impossible to project out 20 more years. 
 

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8 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Going over charts in the CDC map room: Monthly climate composites, and Daily climate composites, I am aware of major pattern breaks in the last few years (more specifically, since 2012). If an IQ test, these differences are so great, it would be almost impossible to project out 20 more years. 
 

continuation of this thread

 

It's true, there are emerging signs that we are entering or already going through an abrupt-climate shift in how the 500mb pattern works in winter and summer. Will post more comprehensively on this later.

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On 1/9/2018 at 1:22 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

You don't really see cold balance like this anymore. 

1a.gif

There was a big global pattern shift in 2011-2012, after this everything is much different. 

I assume everyone has seen all the maps. Basically, to see this would be 1/100 because healthy cold mid-Winter airmasses equaled around the globe is not the pattern. 

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If anyone is interested, I sent NOAA an email regarding questions and observations here. I got a response to refer to the CPC. A few days later the PV retrograded north out of Canada, MJO hit historic Phase 6 amp, and now there is a #1 historic stratosphere warming being modeled. Stagnant arctic blocking has pattern changed. 

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On 6/5/2018 at 6:53 PM, Vice-Regent said:

However, rather abrupt turn to a warmer pattern over Greenland.

greenland_daily_melt_plot_tmb.png

 

That's really impressive. How many times I wonder has a 2-month period of 850mb heights had the highest +anomaly in the Hemisphere south of 40N? I don't know how that would effect Greenland though based on what I'm seeing on models/verification, maybe it's different (in swing)? I may be wrong. 

compday_ghlq_Odgf_Xn.gif

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

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Insane torching on the Russian side. All around nutty climate. This new Arctic pattern seems to have dropped global SSTA so ++ out of a negative I suppose. Shades of 2012 which was a colder year globally yet the lowest SIE on record.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/06/08/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-71.11,92.29,1822/loc=113.116,73.099

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2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Hmm, I'm not sure Russia has been warm either. The Hemisphere has actually been cool since March compared to 2015-2017. Not saying I don't believe the image.. there have been some crazy 500mb vortexes over Greenland that may be the result of melt. 

It lends credence to your artificial pattern theory. After-all how does one witness a higher sea ice extent minimum with much warmer global temperatures (2016)? The simple explanation may be global warming is more statistically "noisy" in the warm season and/or there was a cloud cover feedback. Even now you can see it over the CAB.

and I suppose as well 2012 was coming on the heels of 2011 which was a sea ice volume wrecker season. The mid-latitudes will cool when the Arctic warms. It's guaranteed in every season. There is cause to be concerned because the US just had its warmest May on record.

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