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Christmas Weekend - Wet for some...White for others?


ChescoWx

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Models have made sizeable changes with the evolution of the Christmas Eve night/Christmas morning threat. Looks like a Miller B with one piece riding N into SW PA and a secondary low forming off the coast as opposed to just a wave developing along the boundary out over the Gulf Stream. This presents some challenges as most Miller Bs bring 1) a jump to the coast with an area in between left high and dry 2) more waa out ahead and 3) tying in with #2 a race to get cold air wrapped in before moisture and new lp move past our latitude.

In any event, looks like it will come down to how quickly secondary can take over, where the jump to the coast takes place, and how much moisture is left once the column is cooled. Tightrope walking essentially. 3k NAM is interesting in that it develops a death band of snow as system pulls out with embedded thunder. Might be a hi res NAM blip so we will have to watch future runs for this feature. It does drop a quick 2-4" in parts of Upper Bucks Co in just an hour or 2 early Christmas morning.3c3be40e0f4cfdb54cc191013b73e04a.giffb50a230017bee4cf0e7682cc3a0a06f.jpg

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Rgem is colder at 2m has most of SE PA very close to freezing with decent CAD signature at surface. Also colder at 850 but getting freeze line there moving NW last few frames of the run. In any event as I keep saying, really fragile setup. Not a prolific snow threat obviously but would be cool to whiten the ground for the holiday.51da4ed0010e7b5a885899efccc98d82.jpg717bb8bb6ffebabf0e367ec624b360cc.jpg

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3k NAM @ 6Z has that very narrow death band showing up again as the system pulls away to the NE. Still seems like a suspect feature but this is a few consecutive runs with this feature and actually looks more pronounced with each run. Other guidance hint at a banding feature swinging thru also. With the waa and miller b transfer depiction now hurting our chance for snow as the precip moves in, this feature might be our "Christmas Miracle" in disguise that it actually verifies could drop a quick coating-1" in parts of the forum to whiten the ground as the system pulls away. 196331bed71879d8cdf02e5bba735328.jpg&key=1887458c0505781276d0ad5f3fa2e6f8094e91f8add6a1d9e37ad4fa8329e753

 

 

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For SE PA I think the 12z NAM is close to reality....with a white Christmas (not saying very white but a coating to an inch from the mason-dixon line north and west of 476 (Blue Route)...with elevations in Northern Chester County above 600ft having the best shot at 1" or so.

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