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December 21st-23rd Winter Storm


hlcater

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like it could rip pretty good for a while in that band from around STL to Lake Erie.  Would not be surprised to see some 2-3" amounts, perhaps locally higher.  

Agreed, also Josh has his magnet on because this thing has been inching northward run after run on the RAP/HRRR. Reminds me a bit like February 5th 2011, or as I would like to call it the day of 5.9" of sunshine. Every run of short term models inched its way northward in succession overnight, and by mid morning it was snowing.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Agreed, also Josh has his magnet on because this thing has been inching northward run after run on the RAP/HRRR. Reminds me a bit like February 5th 2011, or as I would like to call it the day of 5.9" of sunshine. Every run of short term models inched its way northward in succession overnight, and by mid morning it was snowing.

That was one of the more dramatic northwest trenders I can recall...where that thing was progged about 36-48 hours out and where it ended up... yikes. I was in LAF and we picked up several inches.

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DTX's update

.UPDATE...

There have finally been some reports of drizzle around metro Detroit,
albeit 12 hours later than earlier expected. Sfc obs and radar
suggest any drizzle will be patchy at best this evening. Temps will
also hold above freezing. So no adverse impacts are expected.
Slightly colder/drier air advection overnight will end any residual
drizzle.

Latest RAP and HRRR are a little stronger/farther north with mid
level frontal forcing on the northwestern side of the precip shield
expected to lift into northern Ohio overnight/Saturday morning,
suggesting light snow expanding across much of metro Detroit. Given
the potential instability from the sfc to 925mb portion of the
frontal circulation, would not be surprised for the more active
portion of the frontal boundary to remain well southeast of Se Mi.
Therefore, see no reason to deviate from the current forecast attm,
which restricts minor snow accums Sat morning to Monroe County.

Thus, no major forecast updates will be issued this evening. Based on
current temps and the extensive stratus deck, overnight mins will be
raised just a couple degrees.

&&

Not quite sure I buy their reasoning on this one, I guess we will see, though the short term trends are even shifting that sfc to 925 frontal zone further north as well.

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Finished todays storm with 4.6". 

RGEM has areas north of 401 getting around 1.5-2" tomorrow and areas south of 401 closer to 3". We will have to see how far north the precip shield extends and whether we receive closer to 1" (HRRR) or 3" (RGEM). Upper air analysis suggests some redevelopment is possible, however, I wouldn't bet on anything more than 2.5" at this point in time. 

On the bright side, its beginning to look alot like Christmas.

 

 

 

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We really do have a potential for a light snowstorm in the southern half of Iowa tomorrow night. Models have continued trending north and stronger from where they were before today. That said, that northward extent has leveled out or even very slightly moved south on the 00z runs, but not by much and the 00 GDPS seems most generous example I have access to plotting 1.8 inches at DSM. The RDPS both 12Z and 00Z is really the outlier still predicting no snow except for the bottom tier of counties in Iowa. Funny business to be excited about but given our last 2 years, Seems like a flagship system for those in despair around southern IA, but NWS is being conservative and I back their decision

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Looks like I should change over here around 10am or so and then snow until around 3pm.  BUFKIT shows moderate lift in the DGZ for about 4 hours after the changeover and surface temps are falling to freezing pretty quickly once the change happens so I think some max amounts of 3-4" in parts of northern OH will be reported.  Was really worried about the NW trend on the short term models last night, but it all worked out.  If we can get another few inches with tomorrow's system this will be a nice little stretch here. 

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Can Detroit pull in a sneak snow before the Christmas eve snow? Latest trends moving north with perhaps an inch of snow. Dtx still has only 30% chance.

I think the snow missed me by less than 10 miles. I have checked the Bloomsky network and I'm the furthest east with nothing.

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8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yup. Sun has been out since around noon. Snow is melting in the sun but not the shade. This will be the last mild day in a while though, and with snow coming tomorrow all will be ok haha.

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You need some of these Lake Michigan clouds to reduce solar radiation! :P I honestly can't remember the last sunny day was that we've had. Saw a little bit on Monday, but really think that's it for the month of December!

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1 minute ago, blackrock said:

You need some of these Lake Michigan clouds to reduce solar radiation! :P I honestly can't remember the last sunny day was that we've had. Saw a little bit on Monday, but really think that's it for the month of December!

We don't get much sun here either...but you are REALLY cloudy by the lake lol

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

We don't get much sun here either...but you are REALLY cloudy by the lake lol

I am strange and like the cloudy days (yes, some because it reduces melting from sun :P)  The lake has the opposite effect in summer, which in itself is awesome. Lots of sunny days in summer with a cool breeze, while inland gets the heat and stronger thunderstorms. Some summers are almost too dry here...especially with the sandy soil.

Did you lose all your snow this afternoon?

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2 minutes ago, blackrock said:

I am strange and like the cloudy days (yes, some because it reduces melting from sun :P)  The lake has the opposite effect in summer, which in itself is awesome. Lots of sunny days in summer with a cool breeze, while inland gets the heat and stronger thunderstorms. Some summers are almost too dry here...especially with the sandy soil.

Did you lose all your snow this afternoon?

I like cloudy days too! Some people think I'm crazy lol.

 

No we did not lose it all. Places that saw direct sun have bare patches but places where there is little to no sun the snow didn't really budge. 

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