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Upstate/Eastern New York


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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The year we received 200” of snow at airport. How did they get that much with a frozen lake?!?! 

I posted some stats a year or 2 ago showing that BUF’s highest snowfall years generally correlate to Lake Erie completely freezing over, usually by the end of January. My guess is WNY sees enough synoptic storms move through that if we have consistently below to much below normal temps like we did that winter, the snow will add up big time, lake effect or not. 

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4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I posted some stats a year or 2 ago showing that BUF’s highest snowfall years generally correlate to Lake Erie completely freezing over, usually by the end of January. My guess is WNY sees enough synoptic storms move through that if we have consistently below to much below normal temps like we did that winter, the snow will add up big time, lake effect or not. 

Has to be the clipper pattern. That's by far Buffalos best pattern. We get lake enhancement ahead of them and lake effect behind, even with a frozen lake. A few inches every few days adds up fast. 

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19 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

That's just nuts!!

GFS has a synoptic snow event from about 06Z for WNY and 12Z for the rest of NY on Christmas Day, then it transitions into a LES event, on a WNW wind! This Wed still looks good for a couple inches for areas ESE of LO. GFS definitely presses more with the cold to the EC, more so than both the EURO and the GGEM so its a battle to see which models handles the intrusion of tremendously cold air. Some places in the upper Mid West will see 850's approaching -35C, and that's just nuts!

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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

GFS has a synoptic snow event from about 06Z for WNY and 12Z for the rest of NY on Christmas Day, then it transitions into a LES event, on a WNW wind! This Wed still looks good for a couple inches for areas ESE of LO. GFS definitely presses more with the cold to the EC, more so than both the EURO and the GGEM so its a battle to see which models handles the intrusion of tremendously cold air. Some places in the upper Mid West will see 850's approaching -35C, and that's just nuts!

Lock it in!! Who knows details this far out...but that mega ridge blasting through eastern AK on the models around Christmas just screams something extreme  for the US. 

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Ok had to fact check some print books since you can't always believe the internet...  Few tidbits on that winter...

*Lake Erie hit 32* and began freezing over on 12/14

*Lake Erie was 100% ice covered by 12/31

*107.2" fell AFTER Lake Erie was completely shut down. 

*Measurable snow fell every day in January except one day that only recorded a Trace. 

*Greatest 24 hour snowfall after the lake froze was 15.3" this storm also brought 50mph winds.  

*The following week another storm brought 4" and 55mph winds.

*A few days later the multi day "official" blizzard hit. 

* 53 consecutive days of snow 12-20-2/10

* 45 consecutive days below 32* 12/26-2/8

I'm still trying to find how many consecutive days we had a snow pack.  One article states we had our first metro lake storm on 11/29 and maintained that snow pack through the blizzard so thinking at least 75 straight day then.  Nws chart shows 109 recorded days of at least 1" on the ground with 68 of those days measuring 12"+ on the ground. 

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Sounds a bit more promising from KBUF!

The aforementioned low will be tracking up the leading edge of a
robust upper level trough that will dig across the central U.S. this
weekend and shift to the Great Lakes as we move into next week,
bringing with it an arctic blast as this trough is in fact
associated with a piece of the polar vortex that dives south
across Canada to the upper Great Lakes by Christmas night. In
terms of what this means for our area, after a wet and warm
Saturday, we can expect a cold front to cross the region
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Guidance currently points to the
potential development of snow across the forecast area Christmas
Eve into Christmas Day, as the area gets trapped in between a
developing coastal low and an Arctic front approaching from the
northwest, that would, should this scenario pan out, result in a
white Christmas. All of that said, this is still a week out,
and there is still plenty of room for changes, especially given
the significant pattern shift involved. Stayed tuned for more
details as we move through this week...

&&
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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

gfs_namer_147_dom_precip_type.thumb.gif.d05d302640783036c17d7c0d6da0b1a4.gif

gfs_namer_150_dom_precip_type.thumb.gif.6b266d007c22556289ef4d4952270e3e.gif

gfs_namer_153_dom_precip_type.thumb.gif.99203727766741e51895782c2821e64c.gif:mapsnow:

A real White Christmas with moderate to at times heavy snow falling. Lets hope it comes to fruition :snowing::shiver::shiver::snowman::snowman:!!

 

 

Think you guys further east have a better shot at something more significant than is in WNY. Here maybe a 2-4” deal which would actually be perfect to set the mood but not really disrupt travel. I’d gladly take it!

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Think you guys further east have a better shot at something more significant than is in WNY. Here maybe a 2-4” deal which would actually be perfect to set the mood but not really disrupt travel. I’d gladly take it!

2 to 4; 3 to 5 no different, its what happens after that im geeked up about.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'd always take Lake Effect over synoptic. Rochester lake effect is usually high ratio fluff. (Colder temps/NW winds) Buffalo lake effect is usually lower QPF (Higher temps, SW winds) 

GFS has a pretty long duration lake effect snow event for Metro Buffalo all day Christmas. :snowwindow:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png

I was just going to post that! But I'm getting the same you can only post less than 1.95MB files...oh well it does look tasty!!!

 

 

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