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Upstate/Eastern New York


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14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I was looking at the wrong map, my bad and it doesn't look much different from the 00Z run but maybe a tick West. but your right, and I was wrong!

No worries. I actually thought you meant to post that map cuz.. yeah, i'd lock that biatch down FTW!

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Honestly, they are probably just as confounded by the south shore as we are. The parameters that crush buf are different than the ones that get me and sometimes I think they lose sight of that. 

Sure delta T and moisture mostly the same, but the nuances of south shore are ridiculous. 

Give Buf strong SW wind and they'll do well. We need all sorts of invisible stuff to come together. Lol. Been watching it my whole life and neither myself nor local mets can figure it out. 

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3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I see now that the forecast specifically says North and East of Rochester.  We really need polygons for these events.  County wide warnings are so misleading to the average joe.  Anwyay, I can buy those localized amounts with the major fluff factor expected.  Overall I'm thinking a non event for the city and 75 percent of the county.  

http://www.weather.gov/buf/winter

Second section, middle graphic. They are still experimental. 

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GFS came a few ticks west compared to its 12Z run so trends today are good for at least the coastal areas but I think this moves further West.

12Z

gfs_mslp_plev_noram_25.thumb.png.81db22a6cded52fc1ebef49294b5bbcf.png

18Z

gfs_mslp_plev_noram_24.thumb.png.821fb525a0809e75182b925d6f12ca23.png

Well at least their going in the right direction, that's a plus! 

Even the GGEM made a substantial jump west, so all in all a good day for west trends

00Z GGEM

If blank, model image not available

12Z GGEM

If blank, model image not available

 

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1 hour ago, vortmax said:

12-18 Tim... 

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

Is this a joke? We had 1 inch in NE Buffalo. I was on the medical campus earlier and they had about 2 inches. We are gonna get through this entire insane pattern with less than 12” over the entire period starting in early December.

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