BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 New Euro shows almost 60" for portions of Tug through 84 hours. Wish I could chase this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 0z NAM puts out 0.6" liquid for SYR and 0.5" for ROC thru 54 hrs, which is the Xmas system. GFS has half that for both stations. BUF similar #s. Choose your ratio but looking like maybe 0.3-0.4" liquid for most of us XMas...probably 3-6" is a realistic expectation for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Throwing out complex phasing events 8 days out? Come on man. Lots of potential there. The more complex...the less likely. Occam's Razor. Not liking +NAO in general to produce big events, though it doesnt rule them out. The best potential is a clipper or northern stream parade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 0Z EC has the "ex-NYE" storm headed for the Flemish Cap again...a fish storm except for NFL. GFS isn't that far out but it's less wound up and a MA snowfall or ice storm. GEM also a MA/SE ice storm of sorts. Looks cold through the run with probably lots of Tug Hill snow. So disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: All of Oswego county should get in on the action throughout the week.. Euro has an 2" event for tomorrow into Christmas, then keeps the band over the TUG Hill for the rest of the week with a few visits to the South. Its been advertising a more Northerly track of the H850 for several runs now and it hasn't budged and if this were to happen there would be quite a few sad faces around here whos expecting 4-6" or 6-8" so..... The NAM did horrific with the last Last LE event as the RGEM did the best, havent looked at it but I think BL winds ares still a scrap shoot, IMO, until after the Secondary pops tomorrow afternoon. If we get a more Northerly track, like the Euro is suggesting, then all bets are off for So. Oswego county so we still have a ways to go IMO, for pin-pointing lake trajectories and band placement! 00Z GEM Im sure theres a model out there that can tickle anyone's fancy if you look hard enough, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro drops the band south Tuesday/wed just like other global models,,The euro also has a nasty habit keeping the heaviest stuff over the lake on a wnw flow, does it all the time.. Couldn't agree more and I don't think it should necessarily be used for band placement that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It has some glaring biases as does the NAM12 as well with keeping the band consistently on a Westerly wind trajectory even though the BL mean flow is 295-300? It has to be a climatologically thing with the model because it constantly keeps the heaviest snows over the TUG, is that usually the case, yes, but not always as we have already seen it this yr. I'm still not convinced we see some of the totals that some of these models are spitting out for Xmas Eve into XMAS forget about what happens after with the LES. Its all dependent on tomorrows event and how she plays out. Still a waiting game for me, and for KBUF too as no one has put out any accumulations yet except HPC's clown map. I still think the TUG see's the lion share on the LES Tues-Thurs, but we definitely won't be shut out, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: New Euro shows almost 60" for portions of Tug through 84 hours. Wish I could chase this one. Absolutely Horrific with band placement, IMO, and shouldn't even be used for large scale meso events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Incredibly annoying not being able to use the damn radar. Unreal, and of course it has to happen, while one of the more significant events is taking place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Based on tonight’s hi-res models, I might beat my record by Tuesday night.. Trying not to get too excited. I have seen this potential before only to watch the band set up 5 miles north of me. But I have to say, I love where I’m sitting right now!!It's definitely going to your North that I'm pretty sure is a lock but South, could be a different story, I mean 10 n miles South of you, but not likely as you are primed and ready to go.Hope the Snowmobile is ready to go, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Warnings up for 3ft+ for most of Oswego except for the extreme SE part where I am, lol. Fulton, IMO should be ground Zero, just to my North if it's a straight 285 wind, but 290 I get nipped, 295 I'm crushed, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 So here is the 6z 3knam , looks like a brutal cutoff right? But in reality almost all that precip is from the Xmas storm and morning band that settles up north..This is only through Tuesday morning .. Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Occasional snow before 10am, then snow showers likely after 10am. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely before 11pm, then occasional snow after 11pm. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Occasional snow. High near 15. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Through Wednesday. Likely still be some snow even if it’s tea kettle through at least Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Thats nuts if Stamm is still there, lol! I attended with you in 2005-2006 I believe, but not entirely sure! How is Metcalf doing?I graduated from Oswego in ‘16, and still keep in touch. Stamm miraculously is still there teaching primarily instrumentation/experimentation. Steiger teaching synoptic/meso. Skubis doing dynamic. And a new guy was hired my last year, Veres, he’s a climatology guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Rgem out to Tuesday 1am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Well it looks like the Euro wins this one with a more Northerly track of the surface, H925 and H850 all head to our North, while 2 days ago it was headed to our South, lol. KSYR, will be lucky to get 2 inches from this event and not much LES afterwards until; a front comes through to sweep it South, which may not happen till sometime Thursday ! Just happened to catch Spectrum's local weather forecast. 1-3 Syracuse, 5-8 So.Oswego to Fulton, and a strip from Scriba East towards Mexico up through the Tug of 6-10 only through Monday 8AM, with lots more to come for Oswego county and points North. H850 H700, look at that dry slot, lol, which started in WNY and sweeps East quickly. The Moisture incoming is what aids the LES E&SE of the Lake. But I seriously think areas outside the LES belts of Erie and Ontario, that are expecting what they we're expecting, just a short time ago, might be in for a horrible surprise especially places in SNE. It'll still be cold with a white Christmas but I don't think snow will be falling in a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Last 2 events, 1st the GFS won and this time the Euro so its 1-1 this week so far and they both have the NYE system but its out near bermuda, lol! Canadian I really dont follow except for RGEM for LES which I haven't even checked yet. IS that what you just showed Wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Yea the 6z rgem out to 1 am Tuesday..Here’s the ARW/NMM meteograms for kfzy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 348 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 NYZ018-036-037-250900- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0019.171225T0200Z-171226T0000Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 348 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph on Monday will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods of snow and blowing snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Whoever wrote this seemed to forget there will be no morning commute tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 06Z GFS 7 day totals. Sorry KROC, lol, we all know that's not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 348 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 NYZ018-036-037-250900- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0019.171225T0200Z-171226T0000Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 348 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph on Monday will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods of snow and blowing snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$ Whoever wrote this seemed to forget there will be no morning commute tomorrow. Wow, this is surprisingly good news from KBGM but I think they are way to high with their totals unless their expecting something different so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I cant believe how horrifically horrible WSYR's radar is now. SInce Eichorn left that place, the weather center went to ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I cant believe how horrifically horrible WSYR's radar is now. SInce Eichorn left that place, the weather center went to ****! I interned under Eichorn...knowledgeable guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Local forecasts this morning outside lake effect: Channel 9 3-6 Channel 3 1-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, CNY_WX said: Local forecasts this morning outside lake effect: Channel 9 3-6 Channel 3 1-4 Spectrum 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just plain ugly. A far cry from 3 days ago when models were building glaciers, lol. But then again its the WRF which I think is thee worst for band placement and accumulations. Redfield see's upwards of 5-6ft for the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Last minute northerly trend killed it for most of us wanting at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem out to Tuesday 1am.. You will get slammed at end of the event. Winds stay wnw for 12-18 hours. Band will weaken but I think 18-24” for Fulton. Oswego 20-30” Redfield 40-50”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Just plain ugly. A far cry from 3 days ago when models were building glaciers, lol. But then again its the WRF which I think is thee worst for band placement and accumulations. Redfield see's upwards of 5-6ft for the week! I'm so jealous of you guys. Literally 30-45 minute drive to the snowiest place east of the rockies. You guys should chase to the heart of the strongest band. Going to be some absolutely ridiculous rates. Crazy rates are my favorite, which is why synoptic events are all pretty boring for me and once Erie freezes winter loses its appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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