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Upstate/Eastern New York


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KBGM

Fairly stable pattern with a broad and deep upper level trough over
the eastern US. Behind the system Monday cold air comes from the
northwest setting off lake effect snow that lasts into Thursday. A
280 flow Monday night shifts to 290 Tuesday and stays there. The
best snow bands will be at the start with better moisture but this
changes little too. With the low level flow Monday night the band
will be in Oneida County then shift slightly to Onondaga, Oneida,
and Madison Counties.

Not a good sign for KBUF, but it can and will probably change again.  I think we all get some love.

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30 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

KBGM


Fairly stable pattern with a broad and deep upper level trough over
the eastern US. Behind the system Monday cold air comes from the
northwest setting off lake effect snow that lasts into Thursday. A
280 flow Monday night shifts to 290 Tuesday and stays there. The
best snow bands will be at the start with better moisture but this
changes little too. With the low level flow Monday night the band
will be in Oneida County then shift slightly to Onondaga, Oneida,
and Madison Counties.

Not a good sign for KBUF, but it can and will probably change again.  I think we all get some love.

Lake Erie be trolling BUF MEN!!:lol:

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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Well, according to the new weekies, a spectacular warm up is on the table, beginning the 2nd week of January and lasts for a month with much above normal temps. Is it believable, not so sure yet, but if you want Winter to continue through Feb and March don't root for the Euro, lol!

#CFSV2 crew checking in

 

usT2mMonInd1.gif

usT2mSeaInd1.gif

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Very heavy sn for KROC, while we rain here in KSYR, but that's ok. Ideal flake size as the omega intersects the RH as well as the snow growth region, between -12C and -17C, with flakes starting as high as H500 with quite a bit of riming, lol!  

gfs_2017122218_024_43.25--77.5.thumb.png.4370c32fa0c5684132e5eb661b0db4a9.png

its a quick 2-4" perhaps or a bit higher but its gone by 00Z, so a good 6hr deformation area!

gfs_2017122218_030_43.25--77.5.thumb.png.b32de169c11ab4efa162e522133c03a5.png

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There will be lake effect snow southeast of the lakes Tuesday into
Wednesday with significant additional accumulation possible,
especially off Lake Ontario. The heaviest snow will likely be
focused near Oswego county which will benefit from connections
to upstream lakes. Temperatures aloft will be plenty cold
(around -20C at 850mb), and the moderate WNW flow favors a
singular band down the length of Lake Ontario which can produce
heavy localized accumulation. Finally, the pattern matches
events in the past which have resulted in heavy snow in this
area. Model guidance is in good agreement which increases
forecast confidence, however there is still some uncertainty in
the location of the band and subtle upstream lake connections
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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Fulton usually needs 290-300 flow , ksyr needs more northerly and about 310..

Redfield usually does well on 270-280.   It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  I’ve reworked some Christmas stuff and should be there around 11pm on the 25th now.  It better be rewarding :)!

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This week or so has the potential to be memorable...4 synoptic systems and possibly assbuster LES on WNW flow for a change. Make it so.  Never changed over here today. About 4-5" total. ****ty dendrites for the most part though. If the toothless people up north had internet connections we might of got Intel on the area of better dynamics and aligned snow growth. But no, they're all Deliverance types up on the Tug.

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