phoenixny Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Is this a joke,lol? 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Is this a joke,lol? Get the sled ready! Fulton, Fair Haven, Mexico rides are a coming. I say by the middle to end of next week anyway lol What a run that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, phoenixny said: Get the sled ready! Fulton, Fair Haven, Mexico rides are a coming. I say by the middle to end of next week anyway lol What a run that was. We did score 2 feet last March acrossmost of NY state with the last storm we all had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Trails were bad after that storm. Ground was warm and lots of mud being too late in the season. Need the ground to freeze around these lower elevations first but usually can't have it all. Grounds gonna freeze with this arctic shot lasting days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Few inches of concrete still left here with lots of huge piles. Pretty surprised most didn't melt with that warmup, high winds, and high dews. Should be a fun next two weeks. Think Rochester to Watertown towards Syracuse get highest totals by far the next 10-14 days. I wasn't with Devin on last pattern and was correct got 55" in 2 weeks. However, I am with Devin on this one for Southtowns north, not looking to optimistic for LES for Metro Buffalo. Also with the temps. coming lake Erie will be frozen by mid January, possibly sooner. I think we get 10-15" the next 2 weeks, but nothing like the pattern would suggest. There is a possibility of a big synoptic system in the long range that could save the day. KBUF mentioned the big SW flow events to early in their discussion, the longwave through shifted about 500 miles east the last few days which isn't as conducive to SW flow events. Wouldn't be surprised if some locations from Fulton to Redfield get 5-6' of snow next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Is this a joke,lol? Looks like a children's coloring book... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Weather has been to quiet for months. Since august. Hopefully we are gouing into a active winter spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Weather has been to quiet for months. Since august. Hopefully we are gouing into a active winter spring Once Lake Erie freezes give me sunny and warm. Winter is my second favorite season, nothing beats beach days with endless sun and warmth. This was one of my favorite years tracking. We had that big LES event for south Buffalo/Southtowns in January with 30", that big synoptic event in March, the F2 Tornado in Hamburg (saw the funnel, missed the tornado), lots of high end severe weather in summer, the incredible warmth in September, and almost 5' of snow in 2 weeks down here. It's been a fun year of weather here. 99% of the posters here only like snow, but for me personally I love every seasons weather. I wish we got more severe weather here, but the lake kind of kills most convection. The next big hurricane that hits southern Florida I plan to chase. The weather bucket list includes chasing in the plains, japan ocean effect snow, Cat 3 + hurricane intercept, and crossing off northern lights/glaciers in Iceland when I go in March before they melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 That Japan sea snow is no joke. Probally mounains of northern Japan are snowiest place in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: That Japan sea snow is no joke. Probally mounains of northern Japan are snowiest place in the world Yea its no joke lol. Imagine combining all the great lakes and doubling their size and putting a town in the perfect wind direction with great elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 GFS ENS mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Once Lake Erie freezes give me sunny and warm. Winter is my second favorite season, nothing beats beach days with endless sun and warmth. This was one of my favorite years tracking. We had that big LES event for south Buffalo/Southtowns in January with 30", that big synoptic event in March, the F2 Tornado in Hamburg (saw the funnel, missed the tornado), lots of high end severe weather in summer, the incredible warmth in September, and almost 5' of snow in 2 weeks down here. It's been a fun year of weather here. 99% of the posters here only like snow, but for me personally I love every seasons weather. I wish we got more severe weather here, but the lake kind of kills most convection. The next big hurricane that hits southern Florida I plan to chase. The weather bucket list includes chasing in the plains, japan ocean effect snow, and Cat 3 + hurricane intercept. I think your underplaying how much snow southtowns north will get. This is a very wintry pattern and snow will come in all aspects, even nw winds can bring les...the point is its not going to be 2 weeks of wnw winds. Lets watch it play out as i believe alot if ny state will have deep snow cover by the 1st full week of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS ENS mean: And that is 10:1 ratios which we all know it will be much better than that. Fun times ahead!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, swva said: And that is 10:1 ratios which we all know it will be much better than that. Fun times ahead!! And high res doesn't pick up LES well. Few more days and we will be in high res timeframe and will get a much better idea. I think you're going at a great time, I want lots of pics/vids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think your underplaying how much snow southtowns north will get. This is a very wintry pattern and snow will come in all aspects, even nw winds can bring les...the point is its not going to be 2 weeks of wnw winds. Lets watch it play out as i believe alot if ny state will have deep snow cover by the 1st full week of January I think the upcoming pattern is great for snow. But for truly great snow accumulations for Buffalo we need lake effect. I don't see the next two weeks as a great pattern for Metro North lake effect. The CIPS analogs agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: And high res doesn't pick up LES well. Few more days and we will be in high res timeframe and will get a much better idea. I think you're going at a great time, I want lots of pics/vids! We have been going for 12 years now and actually owned a cabin there for 3 years. In all my time there, this has the best potential for something pretty significant.. Agree about high res models. Nothing decided until we get closer for sure. And I will definitely be taking pics and vids.. Hoping data works.. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Hrrr has very strong forcing on lake shore counties from Rochester east. Giving roc 5 to 8 inches and buffalo less than a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Radar starting to fill in. No precip here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 KBUF is reporting -sn, any verification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KBUF is reporting -sn, any verification? Yes sir...steady light snow here. Covering everything quickly with temps below freezing last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nam coming in even colder for weekend basically all frozen from both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam coming in even colder for weekend basically all frozen from both waves. Yeah, with another slug of frozen holiday joy on Christmas Day. Can we please wrap this run up and put it under the tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just drove around Hamburg and we still have lots of snow on the ground here. Definitely withstood the thaw pretty well. NAM into mid 30s tomorrow night into Sat morning for short time, the upper levels get warm enough for sleet/freezing rain but Sat was supposed to feature mid 40s and heavy rain. I'm not sure that is going to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 HRRR been trending north with mix line and heaviest precipitation. Gone fro 5 and 20 up to rte 104 with decent snowfall 4"+. A solid 30 miles over last 3 runs. Is it done? 0z NAM looks great. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Creeping up towards moderate snow here. Good flake size, wind holding out of the east, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just got around to reading KBUFS discussion. Quote ..A Christmas Day weather present: Lake Effect likely... Despite continued uncertainty leading up to the now long- advertised cold snap for next week, the leading edge of the airmass should be in place by Christmas Day, with the development of lake effect east and/or ENE of the lakes. The initial blast may even be accompanied by blizzard-like conditions within any lake effect. This may make travel miserable within traditional lake effect regions, but with less or minimal impacts outside of the lake bands - in this case from about KIAG-->KROC and SW into the Genesee Valley and Western Finger lakes. Pattern recognition pins this the early part of the week as a significant lake effect event with a longwave ridge-->trough from the Western US-->Eastern US. CIPS analogs have some impressive matches, but also several others that are only mildly interesting. From a forecast standpoint, the GFS has been hinting at rather high equilibrium levels (>15000`) for this event for several runs now. This may be important as recent studies indicate that it`s the high equilibrium levels (indicative of a deep layer with steep lapse rates approaching dry adiabatic) that separate the average lake bands from intense (>3"/hr) events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Wow gfs smokes us over the next 10 days. Talking feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Awesome out right now, flake size is great.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 What!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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