CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If the Nam is anywhere near correct, we snow, then we rain, not hard, from Friday night through Saturday, which would definitely wipe out what falls Friday cause they'll be some sort of fog or mist or both, so the snowpack would get decimated but just with the GFS, an American model, I don't believe it! GFS's snowfall map But I gotta say, Nam's map looks pretty good, this is before the Christmas Miracle storm. 2 days ago we were worried about a brown Christmas and now we're wondering how much snow we'll get, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: If the Nam is anywhere near correct, then we rain, not hard, from Friday night through Saturday, which would definitely wipe out what falls Friday cause they'll be some sort of fog or mist or both so the snowpack would get decimated but just with the GFS, an American model, I don't believe it! KBUF says winds will veer to the SE on Sat. This won't be good at all. Again, if we can stay NE with just enough cold air N of the lake, we may be able to stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Right now the only model that has snow wire to wire for the immediate CNY are a is the EURO with highest 2MT getting to 32-33. Don't know about above that layer as I haven't checked soundings but I still think the So Tier turns over to plain rain with the transition in between somewhere, sorry guys! I actually saved this image because I don't ever think KBGM has issued Advisories before KBUF, lol! This is bizarre as they don't even know if any will be needed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 With respect to winter weather headlines...based on the potential for freezing rain/light icing across the Southern Tier tonight into Friday...a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Chautauqua... Cattaraugus...and Allegany counties with this morning`s forecast package. Elsewhere some additional headlines may also eventually become necessary for the Friday-Saturday time frame (particularly across the North Country)...though for now we have elected to hold off on these in favor of a continued mention in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Current model evolution and pattern recognition suggest an initial southwesterly to westerly flow turning westerly to northwesterly...with ample background synoptic moisture and lift available as shortwaves rotate around the mean trough. Coupled with high capping inversion heights...the above suggests the potential for high snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 50%-60% pops for Sunday/Monday, keeping all options open, they refuse to pick a side lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Because They know its gonna get colder, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 How do they not think we wont need at least Advisories for snow up this way? What about tomorrow mornings commute, unless the majority of PPl are off, because Christmas falls on a Monday this yr so many may be taking the day off, but that still doesn't make sense as they'll be ppl everywhere grabbing last minute gifts this weekend so travel will become treacherous especially in around Syracuse because of Destiny! No hesitation from KBGM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Was just gonna post that, not that it matters much though, P&C showing 2”-4”.. Most should be under advisories.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Brutal cold just across the border! Any kind if NE-NNEsterly wind flow and we stay primarilly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Could see a “white Christmas “ regardless of what happens xmas.. This said...based on the latest track of this system the axis of the heaviest rainfall may actually tend to align across more areas immediately to our southeast instead of directly over our region...which may result in a lower potential for hydrologic concerns than had been previously thought. Saturday night the surface low will exit out across the New England states. In conjunction with developing cold air advection on the backside of this system...this should result in the synoptic rains mixing with/changing to snow while winding down from west to east during the evening...possibly resulting in some light snowfall accumulations. Overnight the incoming colder airmass should then become cold enough to generate a lake response...though this may be fairly limited initially given an initial lack of favorable background moisture...and the potential for the general west- northwesterly flow to be at least somewhat sheared. With this in mind...have just continued to advertise areas of enhanced chance PoPs east-southeast of the lakes for now...and low chance PoPs elsewhere for some additional widely scattered light snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 KBGM A system could bring accumulating snow Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day. Holiday travel could be impacted. Monitor the forecast closely in coming days. So really, no one knows anything at this point, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Why in the world does buffalo not have lake shore counties in a advisory. I swear they do stuff on purpose to screw with people. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Here’s the snow forecast..12z run of the NAM shows about half a foot, probably the Nam being the Nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like I was wrong. Tonight's storm trending colder. Not warmer. Hey, I'm ok with being wrong like this. Its like a storm parade out there. What do he got? Like 3 of them between now and Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs is about 0.40-0.50 LE, max snowfall 4”-6” then we rain for a little, wet snow has strong staying power so we’ll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Last 4 frames of the simulated radar from the HRRR for tonight through about 2AM, and I think it looks pretty good all things considered! And there's more, much more and as the WF approaches the precip gets enhanced as it has to get lifted up and over the Cold Dense pool of Arctic air at the surface, which will be difficult to dislodge, IMO, along with a 35-40 knot H850 LVL jet pumping in Warm moist air right from the gulf. Those are pretty decent returns, if its anywhere near correct, then the Nam spitting out 6-7" may not be , the NAM being the NAM as precip rates can get pretty high, sort of like an overrunning event. I just don;t see how if a system heads to our S&E that we get into rain, even ice for that matter with a 1036HP to out North and East. I can see if it exited straight East and the return flow was from the S-SE but this is not the case. With a upper air sounding over KFZY, I wouldn't be too concerned with any warming aloft for a while ( but it should happen along the So. Tier and Northern PA). You can see just off the deck the winds are due East, while just above that, their due West to NW so Lake Enhancement is a definite possibility East and SE of the Lake as temps approach -12@850. On top of this, the temps, while moderate snow is falling are in the mid-upper teens across the ares so ratios should be great for snowflake production as the Snow Growth region is roughly about 5000 ft thick so I am liking what I see so far for tonight's event into Friday. Not saying its gonna over perform but there is a chance for the hilltops to see close to 8". up in the Tug that is, not south of the Cuse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs finally giving us a little Xmas snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like a w-wsw flow starts Xmas afternoon on the Gfs/ggem, could be perfect timing for swva in Redfield even though travel may not be great..Still a little ways away.. The entire county takes a beating on the Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 There is enough cold air throughout the atmosphere until the tail end of the event. I think the Tug stays snow but south of that will mix. The 1034 high gets pushed as the low pressure system heads over Buffalo and warm air aloft will usher in. Before that 3-6" will fall from Fulton, Syracuse, Tug. 2-4" across Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like a w-wsw flow starts Xmas afternoon on the Gfs/ggem, could be perfect tihriming for swva in Redfield even though travel may not be great..Still a little ways away.. The entire county takes a beating on the Canadian.. Yeah, I have been watching it to see when it really gets going. We stay in south Redfield on the south side of the reservoir on Waterbury Rd. We may drive through all night and get their at 3am Christmas morning vs. staying the night in Scranton like we usually do. 2 reasons.. try not to drive in the heart of the event and selfishly don't want to miss the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wolfie, I think we will all be happy after next week. Looks to get everyone in the action and someone is going to see several feet of snow. Where is still the big question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS has come around to Euro for Christmas. This is gonna be fun. Winds more northerly. Moisture aplenty being thrown in from coast. Al of western ny looks white with possible significant snow south of Ontario and Erie. Ive been nothing but wrong for last 3 days. Ouch. The cold air has a punch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is enough cold air throughout the atmosphere until the tail end of the event. I think the Tug stays snow but south of that will mix. The 1034 high gets pushed as the low pressure system heads over Buffalo and warm air aloft will usher in. Before that 3-6" will fall from Fulton, Syracuse, Tug. 2-4" across Rochester. I don't buy it, but you may be correct but we''ll see soon enough, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS has come around to Euro for Christmas. This is gonna be fun. Winds more northerly. Moisture aplenty being thrown in from coast. Al of western ny looks white with possible significant snow south of Ontario and Erie. Ive been nothing but wrong for last 3 days. Ouch. The cold air has a punch! 12z goofus has definitely come around on to the idea of the two lp's phasing. This could be a nice 4 to 6 inch event in most areas with enhancement south and southeast of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Only up to day 7 but LES Tuesday to Thursday looks huge on Euro east of Ontario!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Some of the hi res models now show Rochester never getting above freezing saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is bone chilling cold in its LR, -20F in the Dacks for several nights, below 0 for many.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12Z Euro speeds up the trough, and has the coastal low further east for Xmas. I bet all the NE forum people are gonna go into depression, especially after the 12Z GFS caved to the 00Z Euro. Not much of a change for WNY just a bit less snow. Still looks great for LES due east of the lakes after Xmas next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro is pretty cold too, has a max of 34 for Fulton ..Surface Temps drop below freezing during precip (31-32) , could be looking at a wintry mix if the euro verified.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Phillifan22 said: 12Z Euro speeds up the trough, and has the coastal low further east for Xmas. I bet all the NE forum people are gonna go into depression, especially after the 12Z GFS caved to the 00Z Euro. Not much of a change for WNY just a bit less snow. Still looks great for LES due east of the lakes after Xmas next week! Looks like from this distance that the winds start SW go to W then go WNW as the week goes on...bottom line all areas SHOULD see a healthy snow pack by end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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