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weathafella

Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

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Glad 0z not showing the torch like last run. Even though it'll most likely change by next run, the thing we know is that it looks like once the SE ridge is broken down (or when it's broken down), a cold shot will follow, and it may be a major cold shot

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18 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

WOW 0z GFS doubles down on the Grinch.......JFC

Definitely still a grinch storm but the low tracks over CT vs cutting into the Great Lakes. Move that low east some and things would be pretty interesting. So much time for this to change too. 

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats a helluva lot of happy ski areas Christmas week

I think they’d be a lot happier with people having snow in their yards.  That’s what brings the crowds typically.

  • Thanks 1

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I will say this... it isn’t looking good through Christmas. What happens in the last week of the year, is still up in the air given the timeframe.

If in two weeks, we haven’t had another appreciable snowfall and most of SNE slinks into January under 10” or so, December was absolutely a disappointment, no question. Given the pattern coming in, it would def be a little frustrating 

Agreed.

I still have to think we get another significant event prior to nye.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think they’d be a lot happier with people having snow in their yards.  That’s what brings the crowds typically.

Christmas week vacations are booked a year ahead. Stay away at all costs 

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3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I will say this... it isn’t looking good through Christmas. What happens in the last week of the year, is still up in the air given the timeframe.

If in two weeks, we haven’t had another appreciable snowfall and most of SNE slinks into January under 10” or so, December was absolutely a disappointment, no question. Given the pattern coming in, it would def be a little frustrating 

I agree if a decent system doesn’t materialize before the end of December, then it will be a tad anticlimactic.

 

But ironically enough..already over 10 inches here(10.5”)..it’s been a good week here in the snowfall department.  So I can’t complain all that much if it goes to the dogs from here on out for December.

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8 hours ago, kdxken said:

 I'll never forget that cold .

I remember 1980 well; no recollection of '83 though.  I must have had a late night.......

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We wipe the slate clean.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet.  If it's still ugly at this time tomorrow, I'll be winding up.

10.9/4

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

We documented the reality, its the strangest thing. I can't find another month Nov to March where ave temps rise for 2 days late in the month then fall. Amazing couplet.

I Have heard that (at least in this area) there is a similar spike around January 20-25 for the mid -Winter thaw.

 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm glad the deep winter pattern was locked in. 

The quality of the posts in this subforum's model thread has really gone downhill.  Just saying.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Verbatim GFS is close to 3" of rain from 23rd-25th for many in SNE. 

Hopefully plays out differently.  It not only would sucks for skiing but creates unsafe pond ice. 

There may be some interior CAD prior to the torch and then again if the GFS is right. Those details won't be resolved until we get closer. But with the big ridge plunging north through AK, s/w energy literally dives due south into the four corners area and spins up a low. That's the risk with a -EPO. 

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You'd think that once the trough moves off shore on the 24th, the next system wouldn't ride up the Ohio valley but that's what the models have it doing. I guess the trough axis never clears the coast. Figures.

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Yeah that's two runs in a row now trending worse for next week. Gonna have to reverse that soon if we want to avoid the full banana hammock On Dec 23-24. At least we're used to it. 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks for adding to it. 

Scott, I apologize if you took my comment personally.  I should have made a separate post. This subforum has among the best mets giving model analysis and is usuallly the go to place when threats are on the horizon.

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It really is quite exceptional how we've all had to reckon with some sort of torching cutter that kills the spirit within a standard deviation of a few days around Christmas. Who says you can't predict the weather? 

 

Maybe a clandestine snowstorm will pop up after the fact and say sorry. Let's hope what it's showing now at least shears out and trends flatter. 

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