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weathafella

Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

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As to next week: in some respects, this present modeling tone is a slightly lower amplitude variation of the blizzard a few days ago.  

Looking at the details of the GEFs, you have a lead southern wave being rocket around the periphery of the trough, ... again too fast for middle/ext range global numerical models to handle stream interactions, being a question here.  

Again, we have a surplus of gradient.  The balanced geostrophic wind component everywhere becomes a shearing/negation factor to certain behaviors when it's fast. Lot of eye-glazer tech reasons there. 

But, it would not shock me if it's a hand wringer again until we get into a range where discrete physical assessment (SSTS, convective feedbacks/latent heat load balancing... ) and gunk can be more precisely modeled.  That covers the if/when there is any phasing potential. 

As is, ..the southern stream wave is very weak. It has been in the last three to four days since this thing first got sniffed out.  Unlike the blizzard, this one has NOT yet EVER had a stronger southern wave. Which isn't to say one won't eventually be more properly sampled and so forth... but, to this point, the wave is so weak it's almost negligible... Nonetheless, almost is not total, and it's passing through lower Manitoba and MT...right in there around 96 hours, entices the N stream mechanics to collapse south, a total evolution that is more or less identifiable depending on which run one uses. Of course, everyone knows what happens next.

The Euro is a classic blue bomb juggernaut. That's a 10:1 20"er if I ever saw one...  Totally different impact complexion compared to that fuzzy gob stopper cob-web blizzard last week.  I like how the 0C 850 gets to the Pike, then collapse south like a cheap date when that 500 caves in for a almost 18 DM... That's hallmark signal for 1/8 mile vis parachutes with lightning if I ever saw one.  But we have our dreams... 

I'll tell ya one thing... if you are a winter storm enthusiasts, this is probably the best imaginable way there is to run a thaw!  Two days of this...two days of that?  So we kill today and tomorrow...but if we end up with a 1/2" accretion in the interior on Saturday, then melon ball the temperatures under freezing for three days and cap it with a 10 to 20" storm, I'd still say ur batting average is pretty sound.   

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a chance of a euro solution owed to dearth of N atl blocking, but I doubt it the progressive flow and waning PNA ridge.

There are a couple features I see that would help.  I think what we'd like to see this current storm come further E so it can beat down the W Atl ridge some more which would in turn allow for the follow up wave to dig some more and also the ULL circulating S of AK pinwheeling storms around it seems to be messing with the PNA ridging out W.  If one of those can pinwheel around shunting the ridge E some we could see some better trough orientation.

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Just now, codfishsnowman said:

you beat me to it lol

The models over the last couple days have done that over various areas, In the end i think you will end up with more of a coastal low once the models figure it out.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The models over the last couple days have done that over various areas, In the end i think you will end up with more of a coastal low once the models figure it out.

it is interesting though about inv troughs, they don't work out much but they seem to love the portland me area 

they have had a few big ones past few decades

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As an after thought .. .the N stream wave mechanics actually come over the Pole...  or so it seems looking at the guidance' polar stereo-graphic depiction/evolutions. 

also, I started a new model thread ...  

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1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

it is interesting though about inv troughs, they don't work out much but they seem to love the portland me area 

they have had a few big ones past few decades

Yes, That area from BRB down to PSM is where they like to set up up here, There has been several firehouse events in those areas over the years.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an after thought .. .the N stream wave mechanics actually come over the Pole...  or so it seems looking at the guidance' polar stereo-graphic depiction/evolutions. 

also, I started a new model thread ...  

 

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3 hours ago, klw said:

06Z GFS with a tiny jackpot, crazy bomb spot in Maine for Tues/Wed.

gfs_asnowd24_neus_22.png

 

 

Lava Rock ftw  (Though maybe one doesn't want to be at the jack this far out.)

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