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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Enjoy the 50s and rain Friday and Saturday, pack will be gone for all come Sunday and this is just the beginning of the torch

What ?

The models don't really see a torch anymore and it is going to be cold next week with a snow chance.

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Its like this: when you have arctic conditions (like since Christmas, or, February 2015) the snow stays pretty clean even in the cities. You adjust to the cold and really start getting out in it, snowshoe, ski, etc. Then, temps rise to 30F and everything starts to get nasty. So, "normal" winter weather in SNE helps out by providing a cleansing rain to wash away the dirty stuff until the next good snowfall comes. This is not a historic event; its should not be a hysteric even either.

I'd keep the arctic cold (minus the wind) and the clean snow pack if I could. But if I can't, then a little clean up before the next event isn't such a bad thing.

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What ?

The models don't really see a torch anymore and it is going to be cold next week with a snow chance.

Do you even look at the models?  Euro is a furnace on Friday/Saturday with temps well into the 50s and approaching the 60F mark.

Here are just a couple panels of the Euro and they all look pretty much like this from Friday right thru Saturday.us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018010900_114_519_210.thumb.png.c7335297c47de2a26c85faffda3b4694.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018010900_90_519_210.thumb.png.864e9e091d433ec94166a21e54778e0a.png

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Do you even look at the models?  Euro is a furnace on Friday/Saturday with temps well into the 50s and approaching the 60F mark.

Here are just a couple panels of the Euro and they all look pretty much like this from Friday right thru Saturday.us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018010900_114_519_210.thumb.png.c7335297c47de2a26c85faffda3b4694.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018010900_90_519_210.thumb.png.864e9e091d433ec94166a21e54778e0a.png

The EPO will save us.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could the Gefs be right?

So after all this time talking about srn s/w's and disrobing to west trends, we suddenly expect to reverse it? I don't think we are gonna bust cold. I'm not going to rule it out, but I would prepare for a warmer solution, esp south of pike. North of pike to srn NH..it's more questionable.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could the Gefs be right?

Sure.  

 

But I'm thinking one more warm run...and you'll cave this afternoon from your frozen precip ideas for later Saturday....and it'll Rain to Quebec City as your mantra.    It's coming...the rain and 50's that is.  

 

Let's clean up the roads and all this insane salt and sand.  

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So after all this time talking about srn s/w's and disrobing to west trends, we suddenly expect to reverse it? I don't think we are gonna bust cold. I'm not going to rule it out, but I would prepare for a warmer solution, esp south of pike. North of pike to srn NH..it's more questionable.

We’ve always got Hunch’s boy Cranky 

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warmer trends on all guidance overnight except the GFS. Not what was needed to see a wintry solution this weekend. Still time obviously but that needs to reverse fairly quickly. Too much phasing with the southern stream. Need to see it more cutoff and separate going forward.  

 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve always got Hunch’s boy Cranky 

 

So Will said warmer on on models except the GFS overnight and this guy tweets the opposite. :facepalm::lmao:

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve always got Hunch’s boy Cranky 

 

I love the definitive statements "this isn't a northeast rain storm on Saturday" when we are 4 days out...terrible.  This looks like 2-3 inches or rain friday into saturday, amazing the highest qpf storm of the year is super warm.

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Just now, qg_omega said:

I love the definitive statements "this isn't a northeast rain storm on Saturday" when we are 4 days out...terrible.  This looks like 2-3 inches or rain friday into saturday, amazing the highest qpf storm of the year is super warm.

That's because warmer air can hold more moisture. :facepalm:

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well I’m not saying he’s right, but I think he’s not using the Euro/ Eps which tends to  overamp. I won’t be surprised if there’s changeovers right into SNE Saturday during the day . We’ll see how things look tomorrow at 12z for final outcomes 

Dooooooon't stoooooooooop
Belieeeeeeeeeeeeevin
Hold on to that weenieeeeee

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