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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy sh it, that sucks, hopefully you have used up your bad luck. Holy heck as I was typing this a ceiling fan detached and fell , scared the crap out of me. Lowes on the agenda tomorrow.

My bad luck is rubbing off on you, Glad it didn't fall on someone, Yikes.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

What's more interesting is I'm sort of looking forward to it for a couple days.  

I'm just so over this cold.  It's just so draining to be on the mountain or walking the dog or getting groceries or whatever.  Life takes on a new meaning when you are dressed to go skiing but are only going to pick up a pizza in the evening.  

Time for a little break.  Temps in the 40s and we'll be sipping margaritas on the back deck. 

Timing is bad with mlk weknd, snow is great then right before holiday weekend it warms and rains

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The actual water content of this snow pack ...save for perhaps the bottom, is very low. 

If temps touch 50 and DP make a run at 40, with 20mph routine wind wafting through the region you'll be down to patch work and shade coverage easily by the end of that synoptic duration.

Funny ... I looked at the Euro and thought, '...Comparatively, this is even more going against the GFS' idea for next weekend..' interesting.  Then, I came in here and sure enough, old dependable has informed us that the opposite is true in his wail of lies. 

I honestly think he looks at the charts, ... hates what he's seeing, and then takes it out on us by saying the opposite in the hopes that some sort of opposing consensus will make him feel better about the reality of what is really being indicated.

I dunno, but, from my perspective, the GFS has been inconsistently placing the frontal boundary in latitude over next weekend, and then using some trailing southern stream wave to occasionally, run a mix/overrunning type event ...sometimes through southern Ontario..other times south of LI... placing an ice storm threat in those same locations as a result.  I give it a nod for consistency issues at this sort of time lead, if there is indeed going to be this concern.

The GFS has a subtle progressive bias in the middle range.. That's a ...call it 'yellow' flag that it may be too aggressive in bringing the boundary far enough south and east through NE.  On the flip side ...it's January; who sane wants to bet against a polar frontal tapestry when it's got building mass of higher pressure oozing over top a pervasive snow pack. The GFS could be too progressive with that boundary, but ironically ... end up correct with its position - if for other reasons associated with its poorly resolving the low level factors at this sort of time lead...etc. 

Contrasting, ...while the 00z op. GFS is crusting over Rt 2 with a warning criteria power outage ice ... The op. Euro has DPs nearing 50 and winds gusting SSW at 30mph, centered on Friday night..  Looks like about 18 hours off the timing with said boundary (00z) compared to the more progressive GFS. More over, because of that timing, it doesn't really really have any ANA/following wave ..It just sort of ends the warm up with a slow moving boundary. 

I don't frankly have one clue which one will be right.  Either solution fits inside the tele mass-field arguments ...so from where I'm sitting, we won't know much about that until a, either the signal becomes louder and then overwhelms and forces all the model hands, or b, we get to maybe Wednesday? 

One thing about the warm up ... I'm all in for 5F short of the Euro's max... which is probably some 8 or so above the GFS weirdly dirty warm sector bias there.  I think it's too corrupt with sky coverage as the warm bulge fully matures through, and that's probably offsetting (yeas, even in January that's true) some of the diabatic contribution/feed-back there.  Subtle, but you don't need a lot to swing temperatures some 10 F of max potential.  The Euro's D3 is clad and well within that model's particularly very high scoring ...and, D4 and even 5 ...really have no where else to go but where the Euro takes them, so at this point ... save for if indeed the D5 is truncated by the front. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes you just have to embrace a good ol' fashioned January thaw. Just like winters of yore when Kevin was ice fishing in CT by thanksgiving. 

My grandmother used to speak of ice skating around Thanksgiving in New Britian CT, were there crazy cold late fall/early winter outbreaks say 1918-1930?

She lived 8/1/1913-9/7/2015

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15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Mechanical systems struggle in these conditions.  Sounds like you have had your share of shyte. Now you need to play Megamillions or something.

As long as you have health, it will work out.

Yea, I've never have had a bad run likes this though, But we move on.

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15 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

Come on you guys, this winter already showed it’s true colors. After the torch we reload back into a cold and snowy pattern. There’s really no doubt in my mind it comes back and you can mark my words. Screw what the models currently show. Can’t trust anything past 3 days this year, this winter is legit

Here powderboy no one needs to call him Weenieboy, he is enthusiastic believer in this winter. Personally I don't know how the rest will play out, but let's not lose hope or get our hopes up. Potential for either way 

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53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The actual water content of this snow pack ...save for perhaps the bottom, is very low.

If temps touch 50 and DP make a run at 40, with 20mph routine wind wafting through the region you'll be down to patch work and shade coverage easily by the end of that synoptic duration.

Funny ... I looked at the Euro and thought, '...Comparatively, this is even more going against the GFS' idea for next weekend..' interesting.  Then, I came in here and sure enough, old dependable has informed us that the opposite is true in his wail of lies. 

I honestly think he looks at the charts, ... hates what he's seeing, and then takes it out on us by saying the opposite in the hopes that some sort of opposing consensus will make him feel better about the reality of what is really being indicated.

I dunno, but, from my perspective, the GFS has been inconsistently placing the frontal boundary in latitude over next weekend, and then using some trailing southern stream wave to occasionally, run a mix/overrunning type event ...sometimes through southern Ontario..other times south of LI... placing an ice storm threat in those same locations as a result.  I give it a nod for consistency issues at this sort of time lead, if there is indeed going to be this concern.

The GFS has a subtle progressive bias in the middle range.. That's a ...call it 'yellow' flag that it may be too aggressive in bringing the boundary far enough south and east through NE.  On the flip side ...it's January; who sane wants to bet against a polar frontal tapestry when it's got building mass of higher pressure oozing over top a pervasive snow pack. The GFS could be too progressive with that boundary, but ironically ... end up correct with its position - if for other reasons associated with its poorly resolving the low level factors at this sort of time lead...etc. 

Contrasting, ...while the 00z op. GFS is crusting over Rt 2 with a warning criteria power outage ice ... The op. Euro has DPs nearing 50 and winds gusting SSW at 30mph, centered on Friday night..  Looks like about 18 hours off the timing with said boundary (00z) compared to the more progressive GFS. More over, because of that timing, it doesn't really really have any ANA/following wave ..It just sort of ends the warm up with a slow moving boundary. 

I don't frankly have one clue which one will be right.  Either solution fits inside the tele mass-field arguments ...so from where I'm sitting, we won't know much about that until a, either the signal becomes louder and then overwhelms and forces all the model hands, or b, we get to maybe Wednesday? 

One thing about the warm up ... I'm all in for 5F short of the Euro's max... which is probably some 8 or so above the GFS weirdly dirty warm sector bias there.  I think it's too corrupt with sky coverage as the warm bulge fully matures through, and that's probably offsetting (yeas, even in January that's true) some of the diabatic contribution/feed-back there.  Subtle, but you don't need a lot to swing temperatures some 10 F of max potential.  The Euro's D3 is clad and well within that model's particularly very high scoring ...and, D4 and even 5 ...really have no where else to go but where the Euro takes them, so at this point ... save for if indeed the D5 is truncated by the front. 

I think I have at least 1.7-1.8 water in the pack.  For the amount of pack is that considered low?

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I think I have at least 1.7-1.8 water in the pack.  For the amount of pack is that considered low?

Maybe not at the coast ... I dunno.  There's variance between the interior and the shore of course...

Hey I'm curious what those weeklies are indicating?

The GEFs pretty much argue the end of winter until the comet impact of 2034 -

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I've noticed that over the years ...  It's one of the little remarkable aspects of Earth's climate system, how it tends to modulate it's way back to something like climate.  Whether we do it in the aggregate, meaning ... many days slightly above, or, all at once in a five day stint, there is usually a counter-balancing series of events or event that normalizes things.

Whether that means +10 to +15 to close out the month ... or perhaps just +1 until mid April, ...or even a hugely torrid summer... someway, somehow, more then likely ... this two year period of time will approximate climate + (GW factorization) .... which will iron out to decimals in the latter.  I got a sneaking suspicion it won't average out to -12 ;)

Looking at the teleconnector spread.. at least from the GEFs... they can change but after about 10 days from now, as it stands now, winter is over.  big time...

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've noticed that over the years ...  It's one of the little remarkable aspects of Earth's climate system, how it tends to modulate it's way back to something like climate.  Whether we do it in the aggregate, meaning ... many days slightly above, or, all at once in a five day stint, there is usually a counter-balancing series of events or event that normalizes things.

Whether that means +10 to +15 to close out the month ... or perhaps just +1 until mid April, ...or even a hugely torrid summer... someway, somehow, more then likely ... this two year period of time will approximate climate + (GW factorization) .... which will iron out to decimals in the latter.  I got a sneaking suspicion it won't average out to -12 ;)

Looking at the teleconnector spread.. at least from the GEFs... they can change but after about 10 days from now, as it stands now, winter is over.  big time...

:lol:

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16 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

GFS continues to tick slightly colder with the follow up wave on Saturday but still mainly a CNE/NNE frozen event  as the low goes right over our fannies down here.   

Only hope is secondary wave that forms. Don’t think the two day rain and torch is unavoidable. 

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2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Timing is bad with mlk weknd, snow is great then right before holiday weekend it warms and rains

There would've been more people skiing this weekend if it had been raining, haha.

But it's a holiday during the winter...that's what happens.  Next time it rains will be Presidents Weekend.

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