Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Check out Mike Ventrice's Twitter feed re MJO for a nice shot of optimism.

Damn...neg EPO, AO and even NAO....+PNA.

I've never wanted to be wrong so badly.

[OceanStWx]

29 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Not getting my hopes up after what it showed for 7-8 days out on event just ended-  well ots, minimal qpf, and hardly a "bomb" as that term is defined.  If it's still there 3-4 days out, I'll bite.

GFS probably getting pooped on a little too much for this last event. Ensembles were fine, and believe it or not the op showed signs of something big as early as 15 days out. Sometimes it's more about reading the tea leaves and not verbatim guidance at the long ranges. In that respect the GFS was fine. But NWP tends to be that way for the big ones.

[ice1972]

Gonna need the warm shot shown next week to be squashed.....thank you

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

GFS probably getting pooped on a little too much for this last event. Ensembles were fine, and believe it or not the op showed signs of something big as early as 15 days out. Sometimes it's more about reading the tea leaves and not verbatim guidance at the long ranges. In that respect the GFS was fine. But NWP tends to be that way for the big ones.

Have to stick to ensembles from 120 hours out and beyond...OPs waivered and induced suicides, but I kept flagging ensemble suites on the blog. 

[LurkerBoy]

Looking like the "big thaw" might be muted as well.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

Looking like the "big thaw" might be muted as well.

 

•  

1-2 weeks top if anything

The storm next weekend should be watched.

[ORH_wxman]

7 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

GFS probably getting pooped on a little too much for this last event. Ensembles were fine, and believe it or not the op showed signs of something big as early as 15 days out. Sometimes it's more about reading the tea leaves and not verbatim guidance at the long ranges. In that respect the GFS was fine. But NWP tends to be that way for the big ones.

The ensembles being consistently west of the of OP was a red flag. It's often the opposite. For experienced forecasters this was a pretty telling signal...combine it with the first signs of non-hydrostatic models seeing the westward track around 72 hours and the type of storm it was (where the non hydros would prob have the rare advantage over the globals), and it wasn't too hard to be confident in at least a solid hit. 

But ill say this...if you were just looking at the global ensembles verbatim without any human adjustment for their biases, you'd come away with a track way too far east. I think even at like 60 hours out, the GEFS were clustered pretty tightly well east of the eventual track...still west of the OP though. 

[CoolMike]

That ice storm is a little concerning and would have serious impacts as modeled on the OP 6z GFS.

Time to look into buying a generator?

[Damage In Tolland]

Never trust long lasting torches in the midst of a cold atmospheric state.. especially in the northeast 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get the gfs a little east for the Pats game next Saturday 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get the gfs a little east for the Pats game next Saturday 

Yeah that would be awesome. Still skeptical we avoid an ugly torch but we shall see. Maybe we will reduce it to like a 6-8 hour deal.  

[rimetree]

With this week's storm, it also seemed like models had it more west early on, and then went east. It seems like that happens more often than not...models have the right idea at first, then lose it, and come back to the original idea. Maybe just my perception.

[OSUmetstud]

13 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Check out Mike Ventrice's Twitter feed re MJO for a nice shot of optimism.

Nice.  We take.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Just a hint.. take unders in end of week torch. Fresh pack, more snow Monday, sneaky HP Wed- TH 

[ariof]

Didn't this happen pre-xmas? What looked like a 50˚ storm to Quebec would up being all snow north of the MA-NH border.

[512high]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just a hint.. take unders in end of week torch. Fresh pack, more snow Monday, sneaky HP Wed- TH 

kevin, is that sneaky snow for ct only?

[dryslot]

Looks icy next week, CAD under done.

[78Blizzard]

The 0z EPS h5 @ 192 hrs was markedly different from the op at that hr next Sat.

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, 512high said:

kevin, is that sneaky snow for ct only?

All of NE. Looks like an inch or 2. No biggie, but nice refresh .

Watch sneaky HP late week/ weekend 

[CoastalWx]

LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

Not taking trophies for saying this but ... I've never liked the hyperbole thaw idea anyway, so if things recess back to more like "seasonal" recovery, with perhaps a day or two above, meh. No shock.

Not speaking to the last 10 days of the month. 

[SnowHole413]

Fresh snowpack and very cold air to the north will limit the upcoming warming at the surface. I still can see a few hours of 50 or above, but IF it does occur, it will be short lived.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Fresh snowpack and very cold air to the north will limit the upcoming warming at the surface. I still can see a few hours of 50 or above, but IF it does occur, it will be short lived.

Mmm...

The snow pack argument is overused.  Not you, per se, but individuals often are repeating something they've heard, but no less about. 

The snow pack is a "feed back" ...not a director, on climate modulation. 

To site a couple of examples: 

...If you are 'draining,' a phrase often used to describe low level cold air that is ageostrophically moving south at low levels, a healthy snow pack would assist there. 

However, if the synoptic flow turns around and moves continental air at all levels including below, the snow pack will get overwhelmed ... particularly if said arrive air mass has DPs. Part of this is also because we are typically at the continental 'rim' of the perennial snow pack advance, such that between us and the warm air sources, there is less geographical area that actually has a modulating snow coverage. SO, much of this reasoning is as it applies to our particular region.   I'm sure a deep layer SW flow in northern Ontario is a different climate variant altogether.   

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Fresh snowpack and very cold air to the north will limit the upcoming warming at the surface. I still can see a few hours of 50 or above, but IF it does occur, it will be short lived.

It all depends on the storm track... if we get a strong Low to blow up well northwest of us, the snowpack won't do sh*t and it'll torch regardless of how cold it's been.

I do agree if it's a very marginal track for warmth, take the under.  But if the upper levels want to send a low in a particular direction, it's going to go that way regardless of things like snowpack and low level cold prior.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It all depends on the storm track... if we get a strong Low to blow up well northwest of us, the snowpack won't do sh*t and it'll torch regardless of how cold it's been.

I do agree if it's a very marginal track for warmth, take the under.  But if the upper levels want to send a low in a particular direction, it's going to go that way regardless of things like snowpack and low level cold prior.

That argument is so overrated. Hopefully powderboy enjoys 60 later this week.

[dendrite]

Imagine how warm Jan 90 would've been if we didn't have Dec 89 to moderate it!

[weathafella]

A relaxation is fine and a week or even 2 week thaw is no problem.  I’m pretty confident we come roaring back by or before 2/1.  

 

OT but took my daughter to brunch in Washington Square Brookline.  Periods of blowing snow over deep cover.  Oh yeah the meal was fabulous!

[NorEastermass128]

I’lo be back in Virginia for the last two weeks of January. Good time for a thaw. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Still yet another philosophy ... we've often discussed just how rare an end-to-end winter is.  This one, for all intents and purposes ... really sort of set in pretty much on top of climate expectations - perhaps even slightly overachieving with that xmas storm.  

There is actually a science to January thaws -

[Go Kart Mozart]

I don't mind riding the roller coaster for a while.  It looks like another shot of bitter cold with a storm chance in the 8-10 day range.