Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when it had 60’s Xmas eve/ day? Tossed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you retired now? I'm on permanent disability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when it had 60’s Xmas eve/ day? Tossed its possible something similar happens but we would have to get super lucky with timing which is really unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree entirely, aside from storm window. Yes, you have done a twisting triple axle (whatever that is) and stuck the landing on your forecast...so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Yes, you have done a twisting triple axle (whatever that is) and stuck the landing on your forecast...so far! His second window is early Feb, which is more climo favored..mine is early March. But our outlooks are very similar and our first storm windows were, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I'm on permanent disability. That sucks. What happened, if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Remember when it had 60’s Xmas eve/ day? Tossed Your body is a wonderland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He wasn't wrong about anything. His storm window was the same as mine. He was talking about his medium range forecast...in the post he quoted from 12/31, he said that there was only the threat of a minor event in the upcoming week (which would have been through Jan 7th or 8th)...so unless yesterday was classified as a minor event, that part busted. The seasonal forecast is another ball of wax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hes talking about his medium range f s orecast...in the post he quoted from 12/31, he said that there was only the threat of a minor event in the upcoming week (which would have been through Jan 7th or 8th)...so unless yesterday was classified as a minor event, that part busted. The seasonal forecast is another ball of wax. Was a very peculiar Defense of a 7 day forecast bust That seemed ok at the time but um ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Epic torch late next week on euro....slow moving strung out cutter in the lakes gives us a couple days of 50s. It probably will end up more progressive than the Euro shows because it overdigs it intitially into the SW as is customary for the Op Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: That sucks. What happened, if you don't mind me asking? I have a rare disease called PLS which is somewhat similar in effects to MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 After the torch, euro depicts a quick if temporary rebound of the +PNA, along with an interesting bundle of energy north of Lake Superior. Not that this will happen verbatim, but it shows how we can get lucky if the roller coaster tips the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: After the torch, euro depicts a quick if temporary rebound of the +PNA, along with an interesting bundle of energy north of Lake Superior. Not that this will happen verbatim, but it shows how we can get lucky if the roller coaster tips the right way. Most guidance is showing that but its quickly blasted out and then the longer term thaw likely begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Epic torch late next week on euro....slow moving strung out cutter in the lakes gives us a couple days of 50s. That puts it nicely ... 850's would support a lot warmer... but, meh ... wind trajectory and sky would have to be perfect at this time of year to max that so best to go conservative for now. GEFs tele's did take strides in the warm direction, particularly post the 15th of the month.. Question for me is, are the models typically over doing it with pattern change. I just i guess i'm jaded by the last three years of us not really getting the type of positive departures the models have tried to forecast in extended time frames... like ...EVER. we've had above normal -that's not what I'M refuting. It's the scale of it... I've lost count how many big heat and/or warm looks have ended up pallidly warm in that time frame comparatively, and conversely, I can't count once when such a warm blast verified. So, maybe now is the time. Trend bucking happens at some point; it's a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Epic torch late next week on euro....slow moving strung out cutter in the lakes gives us a couple days of 50s. Sell. Odd run with 1000 mb low running into Ontario and eventually Quebec in mid January with this snowcover: http://www.intellicast.com/Travel/Weather/Snow/Cover.aspx 1000 mb low is sliding under NNE. Looks like the early vestiges of a SWFE. I'll concede if we don't begin to lose this look on guidance by Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That puts it nicely ... 850's would support a lot warmer... but, meh ... wind trajectory and sky would have to be perfect at this time of year to max that so best to go conservative for now. GEFs tele's did take strides in the warm direction, particularly post the 15th of the month.. Question for me is, are the models typically over doing it with pattern change. I just i guess i'm jaded by the last three years of us not really getting the type of positive departures the models have tried to forecast in extended time frames... like ...EVER. we've had above normal -that's not what I'M refuting. It's the scale of it... I've lost count how many big heat and/or warm looks have ended up pallidly warm in that time frame comparatively, and conversely, I can't count once when such a warm blast verified. So, maybe now is the time. Trend bucking happens at some point; it's a matter of when. Likewise Tip. 12z Euro run reminds me of several events NNE wound up getting snow from last season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I have a rare disease called PLS which is somewhat similar in effects to MS. Sorry to hear this. But at least you can enjoy the snow fetish, and watching meltdowns over snow forecasts. I know I've had my share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: He was talking about his medium range forecast...in the post he quoted from 12/31, he said that there was only the threat of a minor event in the upcoming week (which would have been through Jan 7th or 8th)...so unless yesterday was classified as a minor event, that part busted. The seasonal forecast is another ball of wax. Oh, sorry guys..missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 well ... just to be clear and fair and objective... I'm skeptical as to the degree of the warm up; not so much as to whether one will occur, and pattern augmentations and all that therein. we simply were/are not going to hang onto this blue balls swim just trying to get from our doors to our cars, with pow pow blitz' on the charts ...for much longer. it's been pushing the climate as it is... Man, NASA's state-of-earth press assessments for this interval are going to be a riot when they say the planet's like in the top 3 heat for this that or the other thing, yet, ...we here, yet again...we win as only one of very few offset regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: well ... just to be clear and fair and objective... I'm skeptical as to the degree of the warm up; not so much as to whether one will occur, and pattern augmentations and all that therein. we simply were/are not going to hang onto this blue balls swim just trying to get from our doors to our cars, with pow pow blitz' on the charts ...for much longer. it's been pushing the climate as it is... Man, NASA's state-of-earth press assessments for this interval are going to be a right when they say the planet's like in the top 3 heat for this that or the other thing, yet, ...we here, yet again...win as only one of very few offset indicators. Maybe I'm talking out of my crack, but it seems that this region of the country has been a bit more resistant to global warming...at least relatively speaking on a gloabal scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe I'm talking out of my crack, but it seems that this region of the country has been a bit more resistant to global warming...at least relatively speaking on a gloabal scale. oh absolutely... I've been hammering this for at least three years now ...perhaps longer, how every month the NASA press containing the colorized graphical depiction of temperature anomalies, ...the vast majority of times we are neutral/negative compared to most other regions and on whole of the entire Planet. It's really been rather remarkable how persistent that has been. I'm almost thinking it's related to those studies back in the 1990s, where it was discussed how the NE Pacific might cause cooling over N/A in a warm basin scenario associated with GW... Well... kind of tough to argue against that look... We've been in an EPO bonanza ... But, -EPO and +EPO biased times probably happen in either extreme so who knows Whatever the cause ...it's real... we've been in a cool bubble relative to the whole, and that is measured and empirical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 12/16/2017 at 1:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: The euro matches much closer to what we expect these days around Christmas. Full blown cutter on the 23rd. We all go to brown grass and powderfreak advertises pond skimming and ice skiing. D7 Error ftw. Hopefully history repeats itself to some degree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh absolutely... I've been hammering this for at least three years now ...perhaps longer, how every month the NASA press containing the colorized graphical depiction of temperature anomalies, ...the vast majority of times we are neutral/negative compared to most other regions and on whole of the entire Planet. It's really been rather remarkable how persistent that has been. I'm almost thinking it's related to those studies back in the 1990s, where it was discussed how the NE Pacific might cause cooling over N/A in a warm basin scenario associated with GW... Well... kind of tough to argue against that look... We've been in an EPO bonanza ... But, -EPO and +EPO biased times probably happen in either extreme so who knows Whatever the cause ...it's real... we've been in a cool bubble relative to the whole, and that is measured and empirical. There's been some recent documentation about how temps in Vermont have increased dramatically (plus 4 to 7 degrees F) over the past three decades. I'll see if I can track it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh absolutely... I've been hammering this for at least three years now ...perhaps longer, how every month the NASA press containing the colorized graphical depiction of temperature anomalies, ...the vast majority of times we are neutral/negative compared to most other regions and on whole of the entire Planet. It's really been rather remarkable how persistent that has been. I'm almost thinking it's related to those studies back in the 1990s, where it was discussed how the NE Pacific might cause cooling over N/A in a warm basin scenario associated with GW... Well... kind of tough to argue against that look... We've been in an EPO bonanza ... But, -EPO and +EPO biased times probably happen in either extreme so who knows Whatever the cause ...it's real... we've been in a cool bubble relative to the whole, and that is measured and empirical. Admittedly an oversimplification, but the GOM is warming and FAST relative to the globe. Perhaps the GOM is becoming a better region for cyclogenesis and we frequently find ourselves on the back side of it... Seasonal departures would help to quickly disprove this theory. Is there any seasonality to this pattern--are the negative anomalies more prolific in winter? My feeling is we have seen warmer springs and summers but more cooler than average winters, which has helped to offset some of the warming on a net-net (annual basis), and especially relative to the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Somehow, I don't think that 10-day Euro rainer run is going to verify. It shows qpf in inches in the western areas, and a bit over half an inch in Boston Metro, yet over 2 inches at Logan Airport. Did a supercell t-storm form right over the airport, lol? Any run with a qpf pattern like this has to be very suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: D7 Error ftw. Hopefully history repeats itself to some degree... Hopefully...not overly optimistic about dodging the bullet again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Somehow, I don't think that 10-day Euro rainer run is going to verify. It shows qpf in inches in the western areas, and a bit over half an inch in Boston Metro, yet over 2 inches at Logan Airport. Did a supercell t-storm form right over the airport, lol? Any run with a qpf pattern like this has to be very suspect. I would take that with a grain of salt myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 A little snow Monday? How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh absolutely... I've been hammering this for at least three years now ...perhaps longer, how every month the NASA press containing the colorized graphical depiction of temperature anomalies, ...the vast majority of times we are neutral/negative compared to most other regions and on whole of the entire Planet. It's really been rather remarkable how persistent that has been. I'm almost thinking it's related to those studies back in the 1990s, where it was discussed how the NE Pacific might cause cooling over N/A in a warm basin scenario associated with GW... Well... kind of tough to argue against that look... We've been in an EPO bonanza ... But, -EPO and +EPO biased times probably happen in either extreme so who knows Whatever the cause ...it's real... we've been in a cool bubble relative to the whole, and that is measured and empirical. Def. EPO driven....we haven't been able to buy an NAO for several seasons, yet continue to deposit six figure checks into the snowbank as if the NAO were irrelevent. Even in a la nina....jesus lol. Now the NAO is primed to return in subsequent seasons imo. Watch out- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Regardless of whatever you want to believe, the concept of global warming and its ramifications have been tragically oversimplified and are poorly understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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